50th Anniversary Crowd/Wait Projections

[Grumpy by Birth]

We have a reservation for MK on October 1st and we're braced for big crowds. We don't plan to worry about riding all that many things that day, but I was surprised to see the wait times below predicted for that day.



I've used Touring Plans for years and have found it very useful (even during COVID), but I was surprised to see such low wait times listed for a day that they have projected to be a 10 out of 10 level crowd.

I could understand if they hadn't yet raised the crowd projection to 10 yet, but since their numbering system for crowds is based on the wait times, is it a disconnect that low wait times would be shown on a level 10 day? And not just ANY level 10 day, but THE 50th anniversary of WDW at the MK!

And while I realize that socially distanced lines, capacity caps, etc. impact on the accuracy of these projections, even on a level 3 day in March, we saw longer waits than these predictions.

I've seen wait time predictions jump in the past when it gets closer to the actual day and the crowd level was adjusted from, say, a level 3 to 7 or whatever... but October 1st already shows as a 10. Any thoughts on why the wait times predicted seem low for a day that's projected as a 10?

 

[FCDub]

Because predictions like that are a fool's errand. It's impossible to predict, in the era of COVID, what it will look like.

Just plan for long lines and lots of crowds and be happy if they're anything but.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Because predictions like that are a fool's errand. It's impossible to predict, in the era of COVID, what it will look like.

Just plan for long lines and lots of crowds and be happy if they're anything but.

That's always been how we approach things. I just thought it was odd that the crowd prediction is high, but the wait time predictions seem more in line with a lower level crowd prediction, especially since TP's method uses those very wait times (not the number of people in the park) to determine their predicted crowd level.

 

[_19disnA]

Plan that the most popular rides will have the longest lines. No one, not even Disney, can accurately predict the wait time on a single specific ride at a date/time 5 months in the future !!!

 

[FCDub]

That's always been how we approach things. I just thought it was odd that the crowd prediction is high, but the wait time predictions seem more in line with a lower level crowd prediction, especially since TP's method uses those very wait times (not the number of people in the park) to determine their predicted crowd level.

I think that's a pretty good indicator that it's a total guess

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

I guess my point is that one would think that those low "guesses" would result in a lower crowd level prediction (even if it would be inaccurate) based on using those low "guesses" as the basis for calculating the crowd level prediction. Since the crowd level prediction is 10/10, I would expect they arrived at that by predicting longer wait times.

It's possible they haven't bothered to update those wait times yet from a "typical" day in early October, but manually switched the crowd level to 10 because it's the 50th.

 

[BeeBopp717]

Those times look astronomically low to me, considering last week we waited 50 minutes for Mine Train on a random Tuesday.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

Those times look astronomically low to me, considering last week we waited 50 minutes for Mine Train on a random Tuesday.

That's what really stood out to me. They acknowledge that it will be a level 10 "madhouse" for the 50th, but the wait times shown are less than an average level 3-5 day.

 

[BeeBopp717]

That's what really stood out to me. They acknowledge that it will be a level 10 "madhouse" for the 50th, but the wait times shown are less than an average level 3-5 day.

I think knowing it’s going to be a madhouse & prepping your family for such, you’re already ahead of the game. We kept telling my 4YO, “it’s a different kind of Disney” this time around & she was prepared for that (secondary to Covid). Hoping you have some more normalcy in October though- that is MY MOST favorite time to go!

 

[gharter]

I guess my point is that one would think that those low "guesses" would result in a lower crowd level prediction (even if it would be inaccurate) based on using those low "guesses" as the basis for calculating the crowd level prediction. Since the crowd level prediction is 10/10, I would expect they arrived at that by predicting longer wait times.

It's possible they haven't bothered to update those wait times yet from a "typical" day in early October, but manually switched the crowd level to 10 because it's the 50th.

I would agree that on a day where you know the parks are going to be at whatever capacity is or higher (with park hopping), those times seem incredibly low.
We were there 2 weeks ago, during a non peak time and many of our wait times were higher.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

It's just going to be my wife and I on this trip and we will be happy just being there. We will probably only try to ride a few things (PotC, HM, TTA), so the lines aren't going to impact us all that much. I just thought it was odd that there was such a big disparity between the crowd prediction and the wait time predictions.

 

[Ermise]

It looks like a data issue. The individual ride wait times are almost identical to the previous day (September 30th) which is a "4". My guess is they adjusted the number to a "10" to account for the beginning of the 50th anniversary celebration but did not adjust the individual ride wait times yet.

 

[Scalemaster34]

What level of capacity is Disney currently planning on vs what will they actually be able to operate at? Add another 30% - 40% capacity?

Will they be having any live filming (Good Morning America, Live with Kelly and Ryan...), and maybe want to keep the crowds down so it looks "nice"?

Either way... you can tell by current wait times that those predictions are way off.

 

[gatorlisa]

So here's my theory on the low wait times based on my experience of being at MK on the day of the 45th (Oct 1 2016). That day, there were special purchases, special snacks, a special show at the castle...all kinds of "special" stuff that people were doing instead of getting in line for rides. Heck, I stood in line for probably an hour so I could buy the limited edition "I was here" pin. At a guess, they are assuming that there will again be special events/items to purchase offered just on that day and that there are a certain percentage of the people there that day to take advantage of those special anniversary events/items, taking some of the normal crowd away from the rides. Just a theory though.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

So here's my theory on the low wait times based on my experience of being at MK on the day of the 45th (Oct 1 2016). That day, there were special purchases, special snacks, a special show at the castle...all kinds of "special" stuff that people were doing instead of getting in line for rides. Heck, I stood in line for probably an hour so I could buy the limited edition "I was here" pin. At a guess, they are assuming that there will again be special events/items to purchase offered just on that day and that there are a certain percentage of the people there that day to take advantage of those special anniversary events/items, taking some of the normal crowd away from the rides. Just a theory though.

That's a good point. I don't know that I'm willing to stand in line for hours for exclusive merch, but I definitely think we will spend more time doing "special" things than just riding on rides (other than maybe a few of our favorites) like we would do on a typical visit.

 

[BK2014]

It's just going to be my wife and I on this trip and we will be happy just being there. We will probably only try to ride a few things (PotC, HM, TTA), so the lines aren't going to impact us all that much.

DW and I have park reservations for Magic Kingdom on October 1st as well and this will be our approach. We plan on soaking in the atmosphere without trying to accomplish everything we might normally do.

 

[SleeplessInTO]

Yes! I plan to be there for the atmosphere and merchandise too. Will be sitting on the sidewalk 2 hours before the parade starts, eating popcorn out of my special 50th anniversary bucket, grinning like a fool.

 

[Nabas]

We have BWV booked and MK Park Passes for October 1. Frankly, we're thinking of cancelling. In many ways, the MK has become our least favorite park and I'm somewhat convinced that Chapek has used COVID to cancel some of the more expensive aspects of festivities that day.

 

[brightlined]

I'm somewhat convinced that Chapek has used COVID to cancel some of the more expensive aspects of festivities that day.

Are there really any "expensive aspects" of MK anniversary days? At the 45th, WDW's President spoke that morning, there was merch and a few minor food items, but that was about it. Otherwise, it was mostly just a Saturday. (They didn't even make a unique Times Guide for that day - just the "Saturday" of that week's guide, unlike the last two Epcot and DHS anniversaries.) It seems like it's mostly the atmosphere.

I think they do more for the other parks' anniversaries, just in the hopes of getting more people to show up that day. (And in the last decade, they've all been Sunday/Monday/Wednesday/Thursday, not MK's Friday/Saturday.)

 

[Nabas]

Are there really any "expensive aspects" of MK anniversary days? At the 45th, WDW's President spoke that morning, there was merch and a few minor food items, but that was about it. Otherwise, it was mostly just a Saturday. (They didn't even make a unique Times Guide for that day - just the "Saturday" of that week's guide, unlike the last two Epcot and DHS anniversaries.) It seems like it's mostly the atmosphere.

I think they do more for the other parks' anniversaries, just in the hopes of getting more people to show up that day. (And in the last decade, they've all been Sunday/Monday/Wednesday/Thursday, not MK's Friday/Saturday.)

Pre COVID, Disney had plans to spend billions on new attractions and updates. Several have now been delayed, scaled back, or cancelled. Some of these were timed for the 50th (e.g. Tron coaster).

Historically, the 100th, 50th, and 25th are the big anniversaries. 45th is nothing.

Yes, the plans for the 50th were bigger than the 45th.