2013 DDP predictions

[havoc315]

For a change, Disney has actually let it be known that new package prices will be released tomorrow. So I assume we will get DDP pricing tomorrow.

So wondering if anyone cares to make any predictions? About prices or changes to the plan?

Personally, I'm not expecting any changes. Just price increases. Perhaps more seasonal adjustments. (Like a value season price, regular season price, and peak -- as opposed to now, it just being peak and nonpeak).

So I'm expecting to see the QSDP plan increased to around $38 per adult.
DDP to around $55-57 per adult.
DxDP to around $95 per adult.

 

[Faldred]

Unless regular menu prices are going to significantly increase, I don't see how they can pass along higher prices for next year unless they assume the buying public is totally incompetent at math. As it is, you have to "game" the system pretty hard to make paying for QSDP of DDP worthwhile (DxDP is a bit easier to justify, if you're using it predominantly on TS).

My guess is that they'll freeze prices this year, but drop 1 snack from DxDP (down to 1/person/night).

 

[havoc315]

Unless regular menu prices are going to significantly increase, I don't see how they can pass along higher prices for next year unless they assume the buying public is totally incompetent at math. As it is, you have to "game" the system pretty hard to make paying for QSDP of DDP worthwhile (DxDP is a bit easier to justify, if you're using it predominantly on TS).

My guess is that they'll freeze prices this year, but drop 1 snack from DxDP (down to 1/person/night).

Back in 2009-2010, Crystal Palace was $35 for dinner.
By 2011-2012, it was $40.

Character meals have been increasing in price as a high rate of inflation. While regular ala carte restaurants have seen much more mild increases.

There was a time, a few years ago, where it made little sense to "waste" credits on character meals, and you could achieve far better value on TS meals. Now, most character meals cost more than the vast majority of TS ala carte meals. Chef Mickeys is $42-46. Not many 1-credit TS dinners that cost $46!

I've always felt like they build their DDP pricing around a buffet dinner at Chef Mickeys. So, let's say the cost of Chef Mickey's goes up to $45-offpeak, $49-peak. They would use that to justify a $3 increase in the price of the DDP.
As to the QSDP, it hasn't seen a price increase in 2 years. They decreased the value this past year, by taking away a snack. So it's certainly due for a price increase.

They may also rationalize the price increase, by increasing the price of the refillable mugs. Thus, creating the illusion of savings. (The refillable mugs are now $500 each--- So for just $56 per day, you can get a mug valued at $500!!!!)

 

[havoc315]

they assume the buying public is totally incompetent at math.

Not incompetent... Just ignorant of the math. Remember, Disney doesn't loudly explicitly broadcast the price of the dining plan. If booking online, they just give you a button to pick and add a dining plan, no price listed.

And how many people do you see on the boards saying, "I had the dining plan and loved it, now I'll never go without it"
Or... "I just love knowing it is all prepaid, so I don't have to worry about it on the trip."

For people who really crunched the numbers, the QSDP and DDP already weren't particularly worthwhile. We've seen savings drop from a realistic 30% to 20% to 15%... to nowadays, more like 5-10%. So my prediction next year, realistic savings of more like 0-5%.

QSDP -- The "potential" being a $11 entree, $3 dessert, $3 beverage, plus tax. So $19 per QS meal, plus $5 snack, plus mug (call it $3 per day).
So they will claim that the QSDP value is potentially $46. So even raising the price to $38.. they will claim you can realize savings.

DDP -- Let's go with a Chef Mickeys TS price of about $46. As above, a QS meal value of about $19. Snack of $5. Plus mug, $3 per day. So they will base the savings off of $70 -73 in value. If they raise the price to $56 -- They will continue to advertise it as a "potential 20% savings." (though you would more realistically be looking at a 5% savings).

 

[Faldred]

Just saw the post with the price increases. Completely insane. I was already borderline about doing DxDP on the next trip, but at those prices, I'd rather pay OOP and/or eat off-site or get groceries for the room (even more so if we do an RCI trade for a DVC unit).

 

[havoc315]

I was pretty close with my QSDP and DDP predictions. I totally underestimated the degree to which they would hike up the DxDP pricing.