2012 prices

[havoc315]

There was nothing removed from the DxDDP. I agree that the price increase is hard to swallow, but it does still include two snacks per the official brochure.

The holiday pricing is especially hard to swallow. Especially since non-buffets don't do holiday pricing, you're simply getting less value for holidays.

I like to eat 1 ts lunch and a signature/event dinner each night. Under the old pricing, the dxdp was guaranteed to have some real savings. But under the new holiday pricing... Savings are reduced to discounted snacks and mug.

 

[disneymagicgirl]

I used to really love the DDP, then we tried the QSDP last year and like it a lot. But as components are deleted and prices raised each year, they have really taken a great thing and made it less worthwhile. I think we are done with the dining plans.

 

[Colleen27]

The holiday pricing is especially hard to swallow. Especially since non-buffets don't do holiday pricing, you're simply getting less value for holidays.

I like to eat 1 ts lunch and a signature/event dinner each night. Under the old pricing, the dxdp was guaranteed to have some real savings. But under the new holiday pricing... Savings are reduced to discounted snacks and mug.

It definitely makes the math a lot tighter. We'd still save some money even at the peak season pricing without any meals subject to the peak season surcharge, but it would basically be just getting our snacks and mugs for free. And that is with 18 of 21 credits per person being used for table service and none of those on low-value breakfasts. I suspect that the common 3-meals-a-day strategy of TS breakfast, CS lunch, TS dinner will be a loser now, definitely at peak season pricing and for some people even at regular pricing.

For us this is definitely a big nudge in the direction of TiW. At this year's pricing the cost of TiW plus meals is practically equal to the price of the DxDDP, but the additional cost of buying an AP that we don't need tips the scales in favor of the DxDDP. I think the price increase for next year might tip things the other way, even with the cost of upgrading to an AP.

 

[Cafeen]

I need to run the numbers on the new magic number too. The 2/3 rule will likely have to be changed quite a bit. Probably in the ballpark of 3/4 for regular and 4/5 (80%) for holiday. This is going to be tricky. It's also going to considerably raise the cost per credit for the TS credits... and there's more math that I'll have to do to figure it out. (Those calculations are saved on a spreadsheet though, so it's just a matter of inputting numbers).

 

[mainegal]

I have a seven night solo trip coming up. I think I will split my stay and do the dining plan for only two or three nights. On the dining plan days, I will eat at my favorite more expensive restaurants. Pay cash for the rest of the trip.
Make sense?

 

[Cafeen]

I have a seven night solo trip coming up. I think I will split my stay and do the dining plan for only two or three nights. On the dining plan days, I will eat at my favorite more expensive restaurants. Pay cash for the rest of the trip.
Make sense?

From the looks of the price increases, I may be doing the same next year . DxDDP for about 4-5 nights (I like going for 8-9 nights), then OOP for the remainder. At least I'll be able to try some places that I've wanted to.

 

[nrpofp]

It definitely makes the math a lot tighter. We'd still save some money even at the peak season pricing without any meals subject to the peak season surcharge, but it would basically be just getting our snacks and mugs for free. And that is with 18 of 21 credits per person being used for table service and none of those on low-value breakfasts. I suspect that the common 3-meals-a-day strategy of TS breakfast, CS lunch, TS dinner will be a loser now, definitely at peak season pricing and for some people even at regular pricing.

For us this is definitely a big nudge in the direction of TiW. At this year's pricing the cost of TiW plus meals is practically equal to the price of the DxDDP, but the additional cost of buying an AP that we don't need tips the scales in favor of the DxDDP. I think the price increase for next year might tip things the other way, even with the cost of upgrading to an AP.

I think it depends on how much the restaurants raise their prices. The 42.00 steak at Yachtsmans might be 50.00 by next year the way food prices are increasing. I will probably make a descision when I check out the menus next year.

 

[dobball23]

I just tried to fake "book" a July 2012 trip through the Disney World website and under the "normal" Dining Plan, the following details were given. Notice that it says two snacks per night of stay. I know the brochure does not state this, making it very interesting/confusing to me. Any thoughts?

Magic Your Way Package Plus Dining
Includes:
Applicable taxes are included. Gratuities are not included.
Two snacks per person, per night (ages 3+)**
A snack includes one of the following: frozen ice cream novelty, popsicle, fruit bar, popcorn scoop (single-serving box), single-serving bag of snacks, single piece of whole fruit, 20-oz. bottle of Coke, Diet Coke, Sprite or Dasani water, 22-oz. fountain soft drink or juice, 12-oz. coffee, hot chocolate or hot tea, single-serving prepackaged milk.
One Resort-refillable drink mug
Guests can bring their Resort mug to any quick-service restaurant at their Disney Resort hotel and refill it as often as they like for the length of their stay.
Admission to select Grand Gathering Experiences (for parties of 8 or more)

 

[havoc315]

It definitely makes the math a lot tighter. We'd still save some money even at the peak season pricing without any meals subject to the peak season surcharge, but it would basically be just getting our snacks and mugs for free. And that is with 18 of 21 credits per person being used for table service and none of those on low-value breakfasts. I suspect that the common 3-meals-a-day strategy of TS breakfast, CS lunch, TS dinner will be a loser now, definitely at peak season pricing and for some people even at regular pricing.

For us this is definitely a big nudge in the direction of TiW. At this year's pricing the cost of TiW plus meals is practically equal to the price of the DxDDP, but the additional cost of buying an AP that we don't need tips the scales in favor of the DxDDP. I think the price increase for next year might tip things the other way, even with the cost of upgrading to an AP.

Basically agree with your analysis.
To me.. In 2011... QSDP was paying full price for all meals and 1 snack. Getting a discount on the second snack, and getting the mug thrown in. Now, under 2012 pricing, QSDP is paying full price for all meals, desserts, snacks... But getting a discount on the mug.
In 2011... ddp was paying full price for entrees, but getting a couple desserts/snacks thrown in. Under 2012 pricing, it's more like paying full price for your meals, but getting a discount on the snack and a "free" mug.
DxDP.. In 2011... It was the 1 plan you actually saved on food. Even if you skipped the mug, snacks, and desserts.. You still had a moderate savings on real food.. Appetizers and entrees. With new 2012 holiday pricing.. It becomes more like the other plans. Pay full price for all real food, get some desserts, snacks and a soda mug thrown in.

And you definitely lose most of your wiggle room to "waste" a couple of deluxe credits.

 

[Cafeen]

I just tried to fake "book" a July 2012 trip through the Disney World website and under the "normal" Dining Plan, the following details were given. Notice that it says two snacks per night of stay. I know the brochure does not state this, making it very interesting/confusing to me. Any thoughts?

Magic Your Way Package Plus Dining
Includes:
Applicable taxes are included. Gratuities are not included.
Two snacks per person, per night (ages 3+)**
A snack includes one of the following: frozen ice cream novelty, popsicle, fruit bar, popcorn scoop (single-serving box), single-serving bag of snacks, single piece of whole fruit, 20-oz. bottle of Coke, Diet Coke, Sprite or Dasani water, 22-oz. fountain soft drink or juice, 12-oz. coffee, hot chocolate or hot tea, single-serving prepackaged milk.
One Resort-refillable drink mug
Guests can bring their Resort mug to any quick-service restaurant at their Disney Resort hotel and refill it as often as they like for the length of their stay.
Admission to select Grand Gathering Experiences (for parties of 8 or more)

This same source also stated that DxDDP only got one snack per night. Of all the sections with DDP information on the Disney site, this is the one I trust the least. When in doubt, unless otherwise confirmed, I'd stick with what the brochures state.

--
I'll be working the cost per credit numbers tonight (utilizing both Faldred's formula (no mugs taken into account) as well as my own (basically Faldred's with a scaling variable to take the mugs into account). Also, I'll attempt (using this year's average prices and some guesstimate of the average increase for 2012, thinking 5%) to figure out the new break even point for DxDDP. My gut tells me it's going to end up around 3/4. Lastly, I'm working on a compiled thread with all the information (as well as those lovely numbers!) so that we can get this out to the people in a single place .

The changes in food prices (we know they'll happen) will certainly impact the math as well. Though I don't forsee the level of increases that DDP is getting, so it should be interesting.

edit: I have the cost per credit, and boy DDP is going to be tough to work with, it's coming out to roughly $32 per TS credit on DDP now with ~$16 per CS on DDP and QSDP. DxDDP credits are still OK, but they rose quite a bit too ($~26 from ~$23). More detail will be coming once I finish writing up the entire thing.

 

[NicoleLarson]

I agree with a lot of you. Unless disneys restaurants skyrocket i just dont see this really being any cost savings, anymore. It used to be a good deal when it was $41 only a couple of years ago. I think this could all back fire on disney and force people to go off property to eat. No more DPD for us.

 

[Marshay]

This will certainly twist the math around for next year, but we won't really know until we see the menu price increases (and you know they'll be there)

I think it depends on how much the restaurants raise their prices. The 42.00 steak at Yachtsmans might be 50.00 by next year the way food prices are increasing. I will probably make a descision when I check out the menus next year.

I'll attempt (using this year's average prices and some guesstimate of the average increase for 2012, thinking 5%) to figure out the new break even point for DxDDP. The changes in food prices (we know they'll happen) will certainly impact the math as well. Though I don't forsee the level of increases that DDP is getting, so it should be interesting.

I just wanted to say thanks to everyone on here for 'doing the math' for us! We were just considering the DxDDP for our January trip...now I'm not so sure.

Historically, when do the restaurants increase their prices? and how much has it been in the past?

I'll use the 5% cafeen notes above to see if this will make sense for us or not.

Thanks!

 

[havoc315]

I just wanted to say thanks to everyone on here for 'doing the math' for us! We were just considering the DxDDP for our January trip...now I'm not so sure.

Historically, when do the restaurants increase their prices? and how much has it been in the past?

I'll use the 5% cafeen notes above to see if this will make sense for us or not.

Thanks!

I found some old Disney menus from 2008. There were a handful of major increases.... Steak at Mama Melrose went from $21 to $29 in three years. But I was more surprised by how many items have not changed in price.
In 2008, a slab of ribs at Flame Tree BBQ was $10.49 -- the same price as 2011.
In 2008, the Oak Fired Filet of Beef at the California Grill was $41. In 2011, it was $44. A 7% increase-- spread over 3 years. So just 2% per year.
The California sushi roll went from $18 to $22.. A 22% increase.. over 3 years, so about 7% per year.
At Restaurant Merakesh-- Chicken kabobs have gone from $23.95 to $24.95 over three years. So just a $1 increase in 3 years.

So on a year to year basis--- while there may be some restaurants and some dishes that see significant price adjustments.... I think you are mostly looking at 2-3% per year.

 

[Marshay]

I found some old Disney menus from 2008. There were a handful of major increases.... Steak at Mama Melrose went from $21 to $29 in three years. But I was more surprised by how many items have not changed in price.
In 2008, a slab of ribs at Flame Tree BBQ was $10.49 -- the same price as 2011.
In 2008, the Oak Fired Filet of Beef at the California Grill was $41. In 2011, it was $44. A 7% increase-- spread over 3 years. So just 2% per year.
The California sushi roll went from $18 to $22.. A 22% increase.. over 3 years, so about 7% per year.
At Restaurant Merakesh-- Chicken kabobs have gone from $23.95 to $24.95 over three years. So just a $1 increase in 3 years.

So on a year to year basis--- while there may be some restaurants and some dishes that see significant price adjustments.... I think you are mostly looking at 2-3% per year.

Thanks for this info! Since we are going in January, we may have to decide very quickly whether it works for us or not (assuming they will increase their prices in Jan)

If I knew everything was going up, then DxDDP may be worth it. but if the majority of food stays the same, then I just see a decrease in value for the ddp.

I assume Disney can't drastically increase ALL their prices or people won't eat out as much/at all. However, if they increase the dining plans w/o increasing the regular prices then they just 'shot themselves in the foot' for the dining plans.

ARGH!

 

[havoc315]

I assume Disney can't drastically increase ALL their prices or people won't eat out as much/at all. However, if they increase the dining plans w/o increasing the regular prices then they just 'shot themselves in the foot' for the dining plans.

ARGH!

They haven't exactly shot themselves in the foot. They may simply have concluded that the Disney restaurants are popular enough, that there is no reason for them to give a significant discount, in the form of a dining plan.

To me, it now looks like. .
Might save a minimal amount with the DDP.... but not worth losing the flexibility of paying OOP. (I'd rather not have to worry about maximizing every credit, etc).
If you are going to use most of your credits, you can probably still get some real savings on the DxDP.. but much smaller than before.
I can easily do a TS lunch and TS dinner.. including a couple of signature dinners.. for an average cost of significantly less than the DxDP.
But if I really really really wanted to use every credit and snack, the DxDP probably still has some real savings.

 

[tgropp]

OMG. In 2008, the DDp was 38.99 which included taxes and tips. Factor in the new plan $51.00, I would estimate that the plan has risen approx 40% in 4 years. I always purchased the DP but I think that the buck stops here and eating offsite and cooking in the room (DVC) will now be the norm.

 

[havoc315]

OMG. In 2008, the DDp was 38.99 which included taxes and tips. Factor in the new plan $51.00, I would estimate that the plan has risen approx 40% in 4 years. I always purchased the DP but I think that the buck stops here and eating offsite and cooking in the room (DVC) will now be the norm.

And based on my limited examination, it appears menu prices have mostly not risen much since 2008. Meaning, paying 40% more... For food that costs the same.

I think 1 reason they added the mug this year -- is so they can still claim that the ddp "can save up to 20%.". With the mug now making up the bulk of the so-called savings.

 

[smiths02]

I appreciate the cost analysis and agree that savings have gone down, but for families with children under 9 who like to go to character buffets...there still may be a small savings. I think I will go OOP if we go again though.

 

[Cafeen]

And based on my limited examination, it appears menu prices have mostly not risen much since 2008. Meaning, paying 40% more... For food that costs the same.

I think 1 reason they added the mug this year -- is so they can still claim that the ddp "can save up to 20%.". With the mug now making up the bulk of the so-called savings.

Totally agree with the bolded part.

My increase assumption was an overestimating guess with nothing to base it on, the more educated guess of 2-3% is probably what I'll use.

I did do the math on all the credit costs and such and wrote up this big long post to combine all the information together (both entitlement changes and pricing info), but then my power flickered in a storm last night and I lost the unsaved notepad file.

I did save some of the per credit cost formulas and results (my "including mug" ones since I did those in Open Office) and can recreate the "not including mug" ones with Faldred's formulas (which I'm doing right now... even though you'll read this all in one fell swoop). Any guess at the new break even point is out the window though, but with a ~10% increase in cost and 2% increase in value, we can somewhat figure something out.

Ok, so now I've done the other calcs, and this is what I see below:
CS Credit (QSDP & DDP): $16/$4.50
TS Credit (DDP): $32.55/$7.53 ($34.55/$8.53 holiday)
Deluxe Credit (DxDDP): $26.51/$5.93 ($27.84/$6.60 holiday)

Adding mugs into the mix makes the math a bit variable, so I will include credit prices for 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 14 night trips. (Note: this assumes mugs are $14.95 and is done for regular season adults only)

| #N |    C    |    T    |    D    |
| 01 |  $8.52  | $25.07  | $21.52  |
| 03 | $13.50  | $30.05  | $24.85  |
| 05 | $14.50  | $31.05  | $25.51  |
| 07 | $14.93  | $31.48  | $25.79  |
| 10 | $15.25  | $31.80  | $26.01  |
| 14 | $15.46  | $32.01  | $26.15  |

#N = Number of Nights
C = CS Credit (QSDP & DDP)
T = TS Credit (DDP)
D = Deluxe Credit (DxDDP)

As far as the break even point... this is tricky without numbers. Though, I did "acquire" some averages from that guy who tried to turn around and sell his spreadsheet on here .

Let's see what I can see. Using a "Middle Average" method (that is ignoring the bottom 25% and top 25% of the price points and averaging what's left) it looks like it comes out to about 74% (setting the # of credits used at TS with this middle average gave a savings of $0.32). Figuring in some CS to help bring the # of credits used... it's around 57% at TS and the rest at CS to break even.

So, looks like the "magic number" for DxDDP in 2012 will be about 3/4 instead of 2/3 (note, the 2/3 number was actually a bit low looking at it in the same manner as it was closer to 70%). (Note: this is based on an estimated 3% increase on average, less than that will bring this point down, more than that will bring it up)

OMG. In 2008, the DDp was 38.99 which included taxes and tips. Factor in the new plan $51.00, I would estimate that the plan has risen approx 40% in 4 years. I always purchased the DP but I think that the buck stops here and eating offsite and cooking in the room (DVC) will now be the norm.

Just for "fun" I ran those numbers too. It's a ~32% raw increase in price over the past 4 years. However, figuring the loss of the tip in (which we'll figure as 15% of the base price), it changes to a ~47% increase. At least it still includes tax .

 

[Cafeen]

I appreciate the cost analysis and agree that savings have gone down, but for families with children under 9 who like to go to character buffets...there still may be a small savings. I think I will go OOP if we go again though.

For sure there can be some savings, and especially for groups made up mostly of smaller children (3-9). Just means that more and more people will have to "do the math" to really figure out if it's worth it or not.