Identity of DVC rooms that have a true 11 month reservation issue, which is based on reservation patterns observed over the last three years, but mostly reflecting what happened at 11 months out for dates from mid-August 2016 to mid-August 2017, since the intensity of the 11 month issue has dramatically increased annually in the last three years:
WDW Resorts:
WDW has basically two DVC demand seasons: (a) low to moderate demand season running from the Monday after marathon weekend in January to late September (to about 4 to 5 days before September ends); (b) high demand season running from late September through marathon weekend in January. There are some "extremely" high demand times during the high demand season: the Thurs before Columbus Day in October to the second weekend after Columbus Day; the weekend (beginning with Thurs for any weekend I mention) in first part of Nov that has the Wine & Dine half marathon; the weekend in Nov when Food & Wine ends (particularly if it has the Veteran's Day holiday on Friday or Monday); the Tues to Fri of Thanksgiving week; the first and second week of Dec, Christmas Eve to New Years Day, marathon weekend in Jan.
During the high demand season, the following have a risk of being booked very quickly (meaning within less than a minute) after the 11 month window opens at 8 a.m. on line or even before it opens (booked by those with arrival dates shortly before yours): AKV value and club level; Boardwalk standard and boardwalk view studios (and thus also 2BRs since all 2BRs are lock-offs at BWV); BLT standard view; VGF studios; BWV Grand Villas; and the OKW GVs in the near Hospitality House booking category.
The highest risk time for all of them is during the "extremely" high demand times but it can be more than those during that high demand season. For AKV club level studios (and resulting 2BRs) and the near Hospitality House OKW GVs, it is almost a daily issue during the entire high demand season, and AKV club level 1BRs also often have the issue. For AKV value studios (and resulting 2BRs), it is about 70% of the time, and it can also include 1BRs at times. For BLT, it is about 50% of the time during that high demand season for studios (and lock-off 2BRs), and 20% dedicated 2BR, and once in a while for a 1BR. For BWV standard and boardwalk studios, it is about 60% of the time during the high demand season, VGF studios (both standard and lake view) about 30% of the time (and its 1BRs can also have an issue on occassion such as during the first week of Dec, DVC's highest demand week of the year ); Boardwalk GV's about 10% of the time.
During the low to moderate season, it happens about 80% of the time for AKV club level (and that includes 1BRs sometimes) and for the OKW GVs in the near Hospitality House booking category. It also happens about 40% of the time during that season for AKV value and that can include 1BRs at times. It has also happened on a few occassions for BLT standard view during that low to moderate demand season but when that happens it is either for the standard view studios (and thus 2BR lock-offs) or the dedicated 2BRs but not both. The times when that happens are not necessarily defined by any particular event. For example, for 2017, it happened for a couple days around July 4, but also for a couple days in latter part of Jan, a few in June and a few in August. BWV and VGF have shown no evidence of an 11 month issue problem during that 8 1/2 month "off" season, i.e., they were always open at the end of the day for any given 11 month out date.
Other than those mentioned above, all other rooms at WDW were open for at least one day past any 11 month reservation window. BLT TP view sometimes booked quite quickly after the 11 month window opened during that high demand season but always more than a day after it opened. BCV rooms, including studios, actually did not start to fill until less than 10 months out for the high demand season.
Other DVC Resorts
As to the other non-WDW DVC resorts: Hilton Head has not shown any issues at exactly 11 months out: the Vero 3BR cottages can sometimes, but not often, disappear; the Grand Californian studios can have issues during the Star Wars race weekend (MLK weekend in Jan) and the D23 Expo weekend in summer (in mid July 2017, but in Aug 2016)); at Aulani, the standard view Grand Villas disappear about 50% of the time throughout the year immediately after or just before the 11 month window opens at 8 a.m. Eastern on line; such has also happened with the Aulani hotel rooms on a couple occasions in June and late August.
That rooms fill right at 11 months does not necessarily mean they will stay that way and thus watching what happens, particularly in the first week to ten days after the rooms fill, may lead to finding some openings, and wait lists do succeed at times. Looking for that first week to 10 days is to see the impact of "walkers" during any particular time, which are those who are seeking a particular hard to get time but begin reserving at 11 months out from a date well before their desired time and then follow a process of cancelling dates at the beginning of their reservation and adding at the end, on a daily or every few days basis, until they have what they want. As a result some days already shown as booked at 11 months out from the time you want may open up, particularly within a week or so after you find yourself blocked out at 11 months out. During that high demand season, dates did at times open up after being shown fully booked at 11 months out. That happened little for AKV value and club level, BWV standard and boardwalk view, and the Hospitality House OKW GVs, but happened somewhat often with BLT standard, and almost half the time for VGF studios.
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