100 pt Direct Blue Card Minimum September 17,2019

[LuigiSpice]

THV = Tree House Villas (at Saratoga Springs)

Ahhh yes, I really like those from what i've seen.

Well, we did it. 75 points, june use year.

 

[Brianstl]

The problem with Disney ramping up ROFR is that it reduces supply and increases demand. That causes prices to go up. A very liberal ROFR will dramatically cut into the profit Disney can make off of every ROFR they buy because the price they are paying for them will dramatically increase. Plus, they will have to pay the maintenances fees while they hold the properties and pay the closing cost on each transaction.

 

[Yinn]

The problem with Disney ramping up ROFR is that it reduces supply and increases demand. That causes prices to go up. A very liberal ROFR will dramatically cut into the profit Disney can make off of every ROFR they buy because the price they are paying for them will dramatically increase. Plus, they will have to pay the maintenances fees while they hold the properties and pay the closing cost on each transaction.

But if prices go up, it makes resales that much more difficult to justify for buyers. The current market is about a 30-40% discount off of direct prices; with those nearing 50% either squeaking by ROFR or getting bought back. If the prices went back up and let's say we only got a 10% discount. That might be difficult to justify going resale vs direct; especially with member benefits. Which would benefit them as they'd get buyers direct on a resort they need to sell. The question is, where's the line? If it was only a 10% discount, I know I wouldn't hesitate to go direct. Even at 20%, I'd have to think quite a bit about my habits and how many annual passes I'd use.

As far as maintenance, once Riviera opens, all the operating costs that aren't allocated to purchased DVC contracts still goes to them. If anything stripped contracts might be attractive to them. The dues are already paid for, the points are used for and essentially paid for. The lower value contract allows them to take their time to sell back out without a timer on existing points that loaded and/or new contracts have. I mean think about Alulani, anything not sold is costing them money in annual dues as well. And technically, they're actively losing time - and associated points as those are expiring on their dime.

 

[chcknctlt]

Just to add...spoke to my DVC guide. He said it begins next Monday and that all those who have a current card are grandfathered in for sure. I know its pretty well known now but another guide confirmed it. Randy Cook is my guide.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Well it forced our hand! Just called to purchase our 75 points this morning. Not sad about it either! Told hubby it’s his birthday present.

Please keep in mind that my birthday is in March. Also, just a hint, Vero and VGC are my two favorites.

 

[skier_pete]

The problem with Disney ramping up ROFR is that it reduces supply and increases demand. That causes prices to go up. A very liberal ROFR will dramatically cut into the profit Disney can make off of every ROFR they buy because the price they are paying for them will dramatically increase. Plus, they will have to pay the maintenances fees while they hold the properties and pay the closing cost on each transaction.

This exactly - Disney does not want to be in the ROFR business - especially if it drives up prices to be close to the price of a new property. Any properties they buy back they have to sell. If they buy back say a BLT contract at $150 a point and sell it for $225 - sure this sounds great that they are making $75 per point. But realize on Riviera they are making somewhere in the neighborhood of $150 per point profit. So they are actually cutting into their own profits by selling direct points at closed resorts. And if people get wind they are buying back every property - BLT goes from $150 a point to $175 a point and they make even less.

This is why Disney has worked so hard the last year to differentiate resale from direct. Sure they want to keep direct prices up if they can, which is why they do some ROFR to keep contracts from getting too low. But they also don't want to be buying up 75% of the resale contracts. So they finds way to differentiate. It's why I just bought my third resale contract - I'm worried about what could be coming next.

 

[MBTigger]

As a potential first time buyer (after we stay on DVC property this winter and decide we want to return soon). this will push me more into the full resale category (I was looking at 150pts - 1/2 direct and 1/2 resale). If I wanted to stay at DRR or RLL (Reflections Lakeside Lodge) I would just have to buy those points and sell my own. The other perks don't matter very much...

On the other hand, if DRR (or later RLL) really impresses me as a place to call home I may buy direct. But I suspect AKV would be the place I would enjoy best, and would not MIND SSR.

 

[Hjs33]

So I took the leap and added 75pts direct. I was going to do it next year before our next trip, but this news just moved up the date. My guide wouldn’t explicitly come out and say that there was going to be an increase in the minimum because Disney hasn’t officially announced it. But he did confirm there was a meeting on Monday and a follow up email about this topic. I had to read between the lines, but he basically confirmed it without actually saying it.

That being said, isn’t this just going to move sales like mine forward? After this initial rush I think sales will be slower in the future. My theory is sales at Riviera are so slow they are trying to bump up sales now to cover up how slow it has been. They know it will hurt future sales, but they hope once the Riviera opens and people can go see the resort, that it will boost sales to a more normal level.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

 

[skippytx]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

No, you're not wrong in thinking about this. It's just most people think about the discounts. With Riv not even being open yet, not many folks are thinking about 20 years from now as 2042 resorts start getting removed from the L-14.

 

[TheHuns]

That being said, isn’t this just going to move sales like mine forward? After this initial rush I think sales will be slower in the future. My theory is sales at Riviera are so slow they are trying to bump up sales now to cover up how slow it has been. They know it will hurt future sales, but they hope once the Riviera opens and people can go see the resort, that it will boost sales to a more normal level.

If this is a technique they are using to get people to buy points, I wonder if it will be a natural progression to target people for add on points next time there is pressure.

Disney knows how many members are impacted by resale restrictions and how many points they own. How many member impacted by restrictions would add on 50 direct points at Riviera or Reflections if it meant they would get get access to the member benefits?

 

[dropd]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

Yes, I think that's the biggest salient reason to go with the hybrid approach. Though by my math, the hybrid approach also makes a LOT more economic sense if you plan to regularly take 2 (or more) 3-days-at-the-parks (or more) trips per year, in order to take advantage of the annual pass discount which (hopefully) will stick around for a number of years.

 

[MBTigger]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

If you are wrong, than I am wrong as well and we can be wrong about this together!

 

[Maistre Gracey]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

Except, at least it’s my understanding, that only the direct points can be used at future DVC resorts, not the resale portion of your hybrid portfolio. That could mean only 75 (or 100) of those points can be used toward your goal.
That said, you will still get full discounts even with the minimum direct points.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

Except, at least it’s my understanding, that only the direct points can be used at future DVC resorts, not the resale portion of your hybrid portfolio. That could mean only 75 (or 100) of those points can be used toward your goal.
That said, you will still get full discounts even with the minimum direct points.

That is exactly my point. I don't know the math but I think that will leave a lot of people who did not get in before Jan 2019 on resale fighting for less resorts 20 years from now. At least with being grandfathered 75 points I know those points will not need to contend with that restriction and I can try for split stays.

My points budget is 125 points and I had originally planned to go full resale for the upfront "discount" and with this may go back to that plan because now seeing the cost of 50 point contracts the expectations I had for getting in on the cheap are lessened. I really want the insurance of being a full member and that piece of mind may justify the added cost.

 

[Yinn]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

You’re not wrong, it’s just more difficult to quantify. There’s a clear break even for discounts, where as it’s not as tangible for access and evaluating how much that access is worth.

Financially speaking, a hybrid approach makes a lot of sense. And we have to take a look at the spread of direct vs resale instead of the initial cost. That’s how I looked at it and I came with the following using the highest prices of ROFR executed for the year, and where there was no ROFR; used market value calculators of resellers to come up with what membership essentially costs.

​

Resort​	Direct Purchase Premium​	Contract Years Remaining​	Annual "Cost" of Membership​
CCV​	$3150​	48​	$66​
RR​	$4125​	50​	$83​
VGC​	$4425​	40​	$111​
OKW​	$4200​	37​	$114​
PBV​	$5400​	46​	$117​
SSR​	$4125​	34​	$121​
Aulani​	$5250​	42​	$125​
AKV​	$4725​	37​	$128​
BLT​	$6000​	40​	$150​
VGF​	$6675​	44​	$152​
HHI​	$3375​	22​	$153​
BRV​	$4275​	22​	$194​
BWV​	$5175​	22​	$235​
BCV​	$6000​	22​	$273​

Note: This does NOT take into account annual dues. It is not meant to be a calculator to buy X for the best value to membership. But rather it shows what your membership cost at your home resort would be and assumes you'd have to pay those dues either way. ​

So based on this, it's easy for me to say - oh well I would get photopass every time. That's worth $169. So HHI and up, it's already worth it. Or to even say if for one year I buy the cheapest annual for a family of 5, plus photopass. That's $2269. If I do that twice, that's $4538 and nearly covers the premium of buying my 75 AKV points direct. Being able to use those points at Riviera...well, that's a bonus. It's valid, I just don't know how to turn it into dollars and quantify it.

 

[What_13th_floor?]

You’re not wrong, it’s just more difficult to quantify. There’s a clear break even for discounts, where as it’s not as tangible for access and evaluating how much that access is worth.

Financially speaking, a hybrid approach makes a lot of sense. And we have to take a look at the spread of direct vs resale instead of the initial cost. That’s how I looked at it and I came with the following using the highest prices of ROFR executed for the year, and where there was no ROFR; used market value calculators of resellers to come up with what membership essentially costs.

​

Resort​	Direct Purchase Premium​	Contract Years Remaining​	Annual "Cost" of Membership​
CCV​	$3150​	48​	$66​
RR​	$4125​	50​	$83​
VGC​	$4425​	40​	$111​
OKW​	$4200​	37​	$114​
PBV​	$5400​	46​	$117​
SSR​	$4125​	34​	$121​
Aulani​	$5250​	42​	$125​
AKV​	$4725​	37​	$128​
BLT​	$6000​	40​	$150​
VGF​	$6675​	44​	$152​
HHI​	$3375​	22​	$153​
BRV​	$4275​	22​	$194​
BWV​	$5175​	22​	$235​
BCV​	$6000​	22​	$273​

Note: This does NOT take into account annual dues. It is not meant to be a calculator to buy X for the best value to membership. But rather it shows what your membership cost at your home resort would be and assumes you'd have to pay those dues either way. ​

So based on this, it's easy for me to say - oh well I would get photopass every time. That's worth $169. So HHI and up, it's already worth it. Or to even say if for one year I buy the cheapest annual for a family of 5, plus photopass. That's $2269. If I do that twice, that's $4538 and nearly covers the premium of buying my 75 AKV points direct. Being able to use those points at Riviera...well, that's a bonus. It's valid, I just don't know how to turn it into dollars and quantify it.

Love the response (I forgot about the photopass benefit) but have a stupid question...Are those numbers based on 75 points? Ex: CCV $3150 / 75 points = $42 more per point for direct vs. resale?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

As someone who is leaning towards the hybrid approach and agree that my tipping point is the 75 point mark for cost versus benefit. I don't understand why when it comes to the Blue Card Benefits I primarily see people talk about the discounts and not the rights provided. Is this something that is understood?

I am referring to my understanding that with direct ownership we will be able to use those points at ANY current or future resort. To me this is a bigger deal then anything considering that in 20 years the likes of BCV and BWV will expire leaving those up for Direct Sales again and in that case anyone who bought resale would not be able to use those resorts without owning them (I used them as an example because it would effectively remove Epcot resorts from the table once expired).

Am I wrong in thinking this?

I personally would not/do not consider things that way.

I tend to discount future resorts because so many plans have been dropped from the table. Another possibility, though it is an unlikely event, but any resort could be dropped entirely from the system. So I have never bought a contract with a consideration for future any further out than resorts that currently exist. They are very upfront in their agreements that one should not count on future resorts and I have always taken that to heart even though now they highlight future resorts to encourage direct purchases. Again - way too many changes of plans in the past to count on any of that.

Rather, if I got to 2042 and now wanted to stay at whatever future resorts they had opened between now and then that is when I'd consider buying to stay at them then but I would not in 2019. I might not even like any of them or I might be perfectly happy with what is already here. Now if there was a resort I absolutely loved in any future offerings then I'd reevaluate. Or if I was still happy with most places I still had access to I'd likely I'd rent out my points and pay cash or some other version but I never have thought of sinking money into DVC promises for future offerings. Nope. No way. What is available in discounts today is much more valuable IMO than a concern of having a dozen options to stay at over two decades from now.

To be upfront other than a resale I just purchased all my points do currently allow me to stay anywhere but I'm going to mostly stay at what currently exists. And I always have a downsizing plan in my head. If I implemented it I'd keep the restricted resale and another small grandfathered contract or two just to have the qualified membership for discounts/perks, since I already have that. No thought at all to not being able to stay at promised future resorts as there would still be SSR, AKV, BLT, VGC, VGF, PVB, CCV and Aulani after 2042. As it stands we mostly rotate thru 3-4 existing WDW and VGC and then pop in a stay at others periodically. Yes, 7 resorts will still be more than enough and DVC resort promises get zero weighting in my consideration.

 

[dropd]

​

Resort​	Direct Purchase Premium​	Contract Years Remaining​	Annual "Cost" of Membership​
CCV​	$3150​	48​	$66​
RR​	$4125​	50​	$83​
VGC​	$4425​	40​	$111​
OKW​	$4200​	37​	$114​
PBV​	$5400​	46​	$117​
SSR​	$4125​	34​	$121​
Aulani​	$5250​	42​	$125​
AKV​	$4725​	37​	$128​
BLT​	$6000​	40​	$150​
VGF​	$6675​	44​	$152​
HHI​	$3375​	22​	$153​
BRV​	$4275​	22​	$194​
BWV​	$5175​	22​	$235​
BCV​	$6000​	22​	$273​

Note: This does NOT take into account annual dues. It is not meant to be a calculator to buy X for the best value to membership. But rather it shows what your membership cost at your home resort would be and assumes you'd have to pay those dues either way. ​

Love this table. How did you determine that RR "resale" price?

 

[skippytx]

I really don't think it's proper to use the *current* DVC AP discount in any sort of savings calculation. The current "discount" has been this large for like less than 3 months, and I guarantee it won't stay that large for long. Basing a decision on something like that doesn't make sense.