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[i<3riviera]

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[EM Lawrence]

This is fascinating. Thank you for putting it together. It was just the sort of thing I’ve been wondering about, and here it is!

 

[RoseGold]

Wow, this is the math I always had at the back of my mind but could never put to spreadsheet. Honestly, I thought RIV would perform much better because of those teensy new studios. Surprised to see it fare so poorly in the studio category.

 

[Royal Consort]

I love how you're occupying yourself in quarantine.

 

[becauseimnew]

This is awesome! Thank you.

 

[jamier2]

I couldn't make that awesome spreadsheet myself, but I honestly thought that PVB was down low once you factor in the points required for a week versus other places.

That said, I am sitting waiting on ROFR on my PVB contract because that's the wife's favorite place ever and that makes it worth it.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I do think people spend too much time chasing the "best deal". What makes sense is to determine if it's a better deal for you than your current costs for the accommodations you want.

That being said, this type of analysis is what I did when buying (but not to this extent). It helped narrow down the choices.

Great work, OP!

I bought BWV direct a few years ago. Since the ppp was lower and the years longer, I'm "in the green" on your chart for all my stays, so I won't complain. However, people who got all the great deals 10 years ago..... they're staying for soooo cheap! lol

 

[i<3riviera]

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[ray3127]

this is based on the biannual DVC Resale Market analysis ...
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2020/expanding on this, if you buy where you want to stay, the point charts of each resort have an impact on value of your points when you turn them into a resort stay

said another way, what's the most economical DVC purchase in terms of total cost per week (assuming one per year) for the rest of the life of the resort?

for example, if you want one week every Oct in a deluxe studio - standard, you will need 129 points at PVB but only 85 points at OKW; so while PVB points resale may be the most economical in terms of cost per point for the full life (DVC Resale Market analysis), when you translate that to home resort stays it comes in third to last for resale, only losing to BRV and BCV

if you plan to sleep at many different resorts and not use the 11-8 month booking window, this analysis doesn't really apply to you and you should use the DVC Resale Market analysis (PVB is the best)

assumptions:

limited to Walt Disney World resorts​

2020 real valuation (how many 2020 USD do I need to spend in all future years)​

dues will roughly grow at the same rate leaving the relative dues cost between resorts unchanged (not perfect but no better information)​

the 2021 point chart is reflective of the future point charts (again not perfect but better than assuming 2020 chart)​

ranked based on 2021 season C (May 1 - Jun 10, Oct 1 - Nov 23, Nov 27 - 30) as Oct seems to be pretty popular with DVC folks​

compared deluxe studio - standard, 1 bedroom - standard, 2 bedroom - standard, 3 bedroom - preferred as most resorts have them; added RVA tower studios for information (though not comparable to deluxe studios)​

at the end of the current resort life, the value goes to zero (contractually this is what will happen but things may change?)​

RVA and CCV 200 point costs were based on the promotion ending 28 Apr 2020 (not sure what it will be going forward)​

RVA resale 129 USD / point is based on the simple average of three deeds (not weighted)​

109 USD / point - 1 May 2020 deed 412 points for 45,000 USD​

144 USD / point - 3 May 2020 deed 125 points for 18,000 USD​

135 USD / point - 8 May 2020 deed 100 points for 13,500 USD​

how is this useful? it's another view folks can take into consideration when evaluating if a DVC purchase makes sense for them; if you follow them mantra of buy where you want to stay, this will have more value to you

interesting tidbits

OKW, SSR, and AKV compete for the most economical resorts in all categories in both direct and resale​

there is significant overlap between direct and resale in the middle (for different resorts; A resale vs. B direct)​

BCV suffers significantly from the short time frame (similar to DVC Resale Market's analysis)​

PVB goes from best to third to worst (when looking at resale, deluxe studio - standard, in Oct 2021+)​

deluxe studio - standard / tower studios
View attachment 499765

1 bedroom - standard
View attachment 499766

2 bedroom - standard
View attachment 499767

3 bedroom - preferred
View attachment 499768
edit: typo; added RVA tower studios

This is lovely. I did a similar analysis last fall, first creating what I called 'Common Size Points Charts': https://www.disboards.com/threads/common-size-points-charts.3774514/

Then I added some commentary in post 3 that did much of what you did here. But yours looks nicer, is more thorough, and is more up-to-date with the new seasons. Bravo!

To me, you *cannot* discuss the value of different resorts without considering the point charts (unless you just sleep around at 7 months, like you mentioned). So I love this approach.

I will add that several 2042 resorts turn out to be a much better deal when you factor in the point charts. And like a PP said, "What makes sense is to determine if it's a better deal for you than your current costs for the accommodations you want." ... So if you MUST stay at Beach Club, even an "expensive" DVC contract is a better deal than annual cash stays.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I think it's interesting that resale BWV studios are the most economical option that sleep 5.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Good analysis and very similar to what I've found when running the numbers. The point charts are critical although it's kind of painful to set up your assumptions (including value studios, which season, etc).

Where did you get the price for OKW 2057? From what I've seen those contracts don't exist on the resale market so I've kind of ignored them.

 

[CastAStone]

I think it's interesting that resale BWV studios are the most economical option that sleep 5.

SSR will claim that title eventually once its refurb is complete

 

[4luv2cdisney]

SSR will claim that title eventually once its refurb is complete

I dont think SSR studios will sleep 5 ... 1 bedrooms will have the little pull down bed to sleep 5. At least that's what I recall from watching youtube.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Another interesting observation is how SSR direct is still a bargain. $11.62 / pt is not bad. And if you are a family of 4 needing AP's you could do your own Mickey Math and deduct your initial AP savings (since future discounts aren't guaranteed) and recalculate the cost.

I'm too lazy to look up the exact $, but I believe it's about $400 each pass. So, $1600 on a 100 point purchase reduces the $11.62 to $11.15.

I love Mickey Math.

Personally, I bought 60 points BWV direct back when the minimum for benefits was only 25 points. My purchase was $9,900 and I have saved $3K on APs so far. I'm going to keep deducting those discounts until my points were "free'! LOL

As a side note, if you're running your own calculations, make sure to adjust for the years left on contract. For example, some UY have 1 more year than what is represented in the chart as well as some resales will have more or more likely less. I believe the OP did the right thing by making them equal for comparison, but obviously real numbers will vary.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

Good analysis and very similar to what I've found when running the numbers. The point charts are critical although it's kind of painful to set up your assumptions (including value studios, which season, etc).

Where did you get the price for OKW 2057? From what I've seen those contracts don't exist on the resale market so I've kind of ignored them.

Probably from here:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3798344/
Links for previous periods are right on page 1 as well.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Probably from here:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ost-for-instructions-formatting-tool.3798344/
Links for previous periods are right on page 1 as well.

Ah, makes sense and the numbers match. I typically go off the reporting from dvcresalemarket and others for average transaction prices but they don't split out the OKW 2057 numbers.

 

[RoseGold]

initially I excluded the RVA tower studios to keep it apples to apples but I've added them above

you're right, they end up competing pretty well but that has more to do with the 50 year life because the points-per-week for a RVA tower studios are comparable to deluxe studios - standard at several resorts (OKW, SSR, AKV, and BWV)

Assuming RIV gets the nasty resale value everyone seems to think it will because of its locked down resale, RIV could be looking very good in the teensy studio category when RIV starts showing up in a few years.

 

[CastAStone]

Assuming RIV gets the nasty resale value everyone seems to think it will because of its locked down resale, RIV could be looking very good in the teensy studio category when RIV starts showing up in a few years.

Does the Riviera Resale Restriction include future resorts? That is, if I buy RIV resale, am I locked out of the original resorts only, or am I locked out of Reflections, Disneyland Hotel Villas, and all future resorts as well?

 

[E2ME2]

Does the Riviera Resale Restriction include future resorts? That is, if I buy RIV resale, am I locked out of the original resorts only, or am I locked out of Reflections, Disneyland Hotel Villas, and all future resorts as well?

excellent question... following

 

[4luv2cdisney]

excellent question... following

It was my understanding that the wording restricted you to home resort booking only. But it's been awhile since I was reading all that drama....