Will the new administration cancel American cruises for 2021?

[Sherrilatte]

OP here. I was hoping we could keep this thread civil so a moderator doesn't lock it. Just looking for opinions on my original question. Thanks

Your original question was "bigly" politically charged--so what did you expected in this thread?

 

[braysmommy]

Pretty sure we've been following the guidance of the task force since it was put into effect in January, which takes into account Scientists, CDC, etc.

Again, don't forget that Europe went through mass lockdowns and mask mandates and they're having record case spikes every other day.

This is likely to continue for many more months until we have a vaccine and/or therapeutic readily available.

I would venture to say many in the US have not followed science.

 

[jdg345]

In the U.S., "port authorities" (note plural) are largely local -- but that may be within a single city or state or involving multiple states in a region. Yes, the Port Authority has authorization to close any port(s) within their jurisdiction. But they cannot supercede a national order, such as the CDC or other federal bureau. It becomes an alphabet-soup of inter-related agencies that could potentially close one or all U.S. ports of entry depending on the reason(s).

But the Port Authority (of a jurisdiction) could be more restrictive than the guidelines presented by the CDC, correct?

 

[Intr3pid]

Again, don't forget that Europe went through mass lockdowns and mask mandates and they're having record case spikes every other day.

This is likely to continue for many more months until we have a vaccine and/or therapeutic readily available.

Not in the summer. They did a great job in the spring but relented with a lot of European travel over the summer. Plus, some of the countries (Spain, UK, France) waited too long to slow things down at the start of the second wave.

To answer OP's question, CDC has already decided how it wants the cruise industry to proceed in the near term. The conditional sail order. What may change that order next year is a much larger increase in the viral case load.

The expectation, however, is that the new administration will focus on the virus. Control the virus, and things can open up. The sooner the focus, the easier the return.

It's actually quite fortunate that the previous administration got CDC to remove the NSO such that the industry had a path forward. The new administration will now work to contain the virus such that by the time the cruise lines are ready (~March 2021), we should have a better handle on the virus - with hopefully a vaccine or a treatment in production.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[CamColt]

OP here. I was hoping we could keep this thread civil so a moderator doesn't lock it. Just looking for opinions on my original question. Thanks

^^^ Yes! Thank you for the reminder and clarification insureman!

We don't need discussions about the media or how elections work here. This is the Cruise Board. OP would like opinions on their question. Topics that branch off from that are not allowed. We are already walking a thin line but I'm letting these go. Please stay on topic so we can keep this open. Thank you!

 

[jdg345]

I would venture to say many in the US have not followed science.

It doesn't help that the "science" keeps changing. Different scientists are saying different things. This is true of everything from weather to diets to vaccines to education.

It's kind of difficult in the US because it's just not as easy to lock down logistically as other countries.

Of course, that said, Europe has locked down severely and has had mask mandates and yet their cases are skyrocketing. Perhaps we should just do in the US/Europe what China is doing? I don't think they've had any significant number of cases or deaths in months.

While we certainly know more today than we did 7 months (or even 2 months ago), I unfortunately think that the "science" is still in the spaghetti stages of this virus where they are throwing things at it to see what sticks, and what doesn't it.

Which takes us back to the OP: I think that in the end, the CDC and other alphabet soup agencies will err on the side of caution with their guidance. As such, I think industries that have significant costs in startup/shutdown are going to do the same and wait for very, *very* clear outlooks before moving forward.

The only affect the "administration" would have on this is the fact that an incoming administration yields more power to the CDC until their nominees are confirmed. Even then, those political appointees have a pretty tough time overriding what the scientists at the CDC are putting out.

 

[jdg345]

Not in the summer. They did a great job in the spring but relented with a lot of European travel over the summer. Plus, some of the countries (Spain, UK, France) waited too long to slow things down at the start of the second wave.

To answer OP's question, CDC has already decided how it wants the cruise industry to proceed in the near term. The conditional sail order. What may change that order next year is a much larger increase in the viral case load.

The expectation, however, is that the new administration will focus on the virus. Control the virus, and things can open up. The sooner the focus, the easier the return.

It's actually quite fortunate that the previous administration got CDC to remove the NSO such that the industry had a path forward. The new administration will now work to contain the virus such that by the time the cruise lines are ready (~March 2021), we should have a better handle on the virus - with hopefully a vaccine or a treatment in production.

I'm cautiously optimistic.

It was pretty restrictive still over the summer, though I would agree not as much as over the spring. I had some business travel to and through Europe and it was a terrible mess in terms of logistics, quarantines, delays, etc.

I guess the answer to the OP's question is, unfortunately, we don't know and only time will tell. It's all speculation as to what the focus will be and what that focus yields.

My cautiously optimistic timeline is looking at summer 2021, but the realist in me is figuring we're not going to see anything at all until 2022. That's not to say they'll cancel everything right away, I think things will just get continuously pushed back.

 

[lanejudy]

But the Port Authority (of a jurisdiction) could be more restrictive than the guidelines presented by the CDC, correct?

Correct, and that is the much more common situation -- think of port closures during hurricanes. Whether local jurisdictions would venture into the muddy waters of trying to direct cruising post-covid -- I'm thinking they will largely follow federal guidance.

 

[jdg345]

Correct, and that is the much more common situation -- think of port closures during hurricanes. Whether local jurisdictions would venture into the muddy waters of trying to direct cruising post-covid -- I'm thinking they will largely follow federal guidance.

I think so too and in the end I think it will be up to the Cruise Lines. Someone, at some point, is going to have to "go first" and I suspect what happens and what they learn from that will be closely watched by other lines before they decide to start back up.

 

[Docmum]

Again, don't forget that Europe went through mass lockdowns and mask mandates and they're having record case spikes every other day.

Being from Europe (Germany) I just wanted to let you know, how we are doing here: all our stores (except grocery stores, gas stations), restaurants, gyms, hairdresser,schools etc. closed completely for four weeks. After that, stores were allowed to open again, with several restrictions: mandatory masks, social distancing etc. Schools started again in May, but only with a combination of remote and in person learning, hairdresser, gyms and so on followed. During that time, our daily case load was lowering extremely well: from around 5000-6000 as highest numbers in March/April, we finally came down to 150-250 new cases a day in June, with not a single death for several days in a row. The summer came, we were allowed to travel again, enjoyed life, even with masks and social distancing, gatherings were allowed, gyms were open, team sports were taking place again. Restaurants were allowed to host family gatherings of up to 200 people - all in all, it was more or less our regular life, only with masks and the recommendation to social distance. All schools opened up after the summer break with in person lessons. From July on, our cases were rising again, first just very moderate, from 150 a day, to 200, to 300, then to 1000, still hardly any deaths during that time. Then, the dynamic changed rapidly: our cases rose to thousands and thousands a day, far higher numbers than we had in spring ! Right now, we are in the middle of the second wave ! Restaurants, gyms etc. are closed again for the month of November in an attempt, to flatten the curve again. Our death toll is rising to around 100-150 a day ( we have a population of 80 000 000). Our health care system is still working, we still have thousands of ICU beds vacant and still are able to help out those European friends and neighbours, who are hit harder, BUT: we are absolutely aware, that this situation can change in a blink !! If the ICU beds continue to fill up over the next days and weeks, we might come in a critical situation as well - something, our government is trying to avoid by all means. For now, we are waiting to see, if the measurements which were imposed on Nov.2nd will work. Polls showed, that close to 80% of the German people is supporting those restrictions and would even be open for a complete lockdown, if this would help to control the virus finally. However, there are always also groups of protesters, smaller and larger, who don’t acknowledge the restrictions. Masks are mandatory all over Germany since April 2nd in all stores, buses, trains, subways.
With all that being said, I think it will take months, at least, until we all will be able to resume to a more normal life, probably still not the one we had before. I hope, we will be able to cruise again in summer !

 

[jdg345]

Being from Europe (Germany) I just wanted to let you know, how we are doing here: all our stores (except grocery stores, gas stations), restaurants, gyms, hairdresser,schools etc. closed completely for four weeks. After that, stores were allowed to open again, with several restrictions: mandatory masks, social distancing etc. Schools started again in May, but only with a combination of remote and in person learning, hairdresser, gyms and so on followed. During that time, our daily case load was lowering extremely well: from around 5000-6000 as highest numbers in March/April, we finally came down to 150-250 new cases a day in June, with not a single death for several days in a row. The summer came, we were allowed to travel again, enjoyed life, even with masks and social distancing, gatherings were allowed, gyms were open, team sports were taking place again. Restaurants were allowed to host family gatherings of up to 200 people - all in all, it was more or less our regular life, only with masks and the recommendation to social distance. All schools opened up after the summer break with in person lessons. From July on, our cases were rising again, first just very moderate, from 150 a day, to 200, to 300, then to 1000, still hardly any deaths during that time. Then, the dynamic changed rapidly: our cases rose to thousands and thousands a day, far higher numbers than we had in spring ! Right now, we are in the middle of the second wave ! Restaurants, gyms etc. are closed again for the month of November in an attempt, to flatten the curve again. Our death toll is rising to around 100-150 a day ( we have a population of 80 000 000). Our health care system is still working, we still have thousands of ICU beds vacant and still are able to help out those European friends and neighbours, who are hit harder, BUT: we are absolutely aware, that this situation can change in a blink !! If the ICU beds continue to fill up over the next days and weeks, we might come in a critical situation as well - something, our government is trying to avoid by all means. For now, we are waiting to see, if the measurements which were imposed on Nov.2nd will work. Polls showed, that close to 80% of the German people is supporting those restrictions and would even be open for a complete lockdown, if this would help to control the virus finally. However, there are always also groups of protesters, smaller and larger, who don’t acknowledge the restrictions. Masks are mandatory all over Germany since April 2nd in all stores, buses, trains, subways.
With all that being said, I think it will take months, at least, until we all will be able to resume to a more normal life, probably still not the one we had before. I hope, we will be able to cruise again in summer !

Thank you so much for your post! This is great information and lines up with a lot of what I am hearing and seeing firsthand as well, particularly since Germany has had one of the better European responses to Covid. That said, even with the new lockdowns, I believe they have shelved any attempt to do meaningful contact tracing due to the volume of cases. They are also looking to expand testing much like what the US has been doing from what I understand, yes?

The polls are interesting for sure, and I think that vast majorities in the US would be open to a hard lockdown *if*, as you state, it would allow the virus to finally be put under control. It seems the problem is that once things re-open that control is quickly lost all over again -- even with mask mandates and social distancing. Stopping/Starting economies over and over also has their costs, not just in terms of economic issues, but also health and psychological issues.

My hope is that the new administration continues with some form of "Operation Warp Speed" which focuses on vaccinations and therapeutics and their delivery. A lot of work has already been done and I am hopeful that they build on this. I am also hopeful that they will refrain from their inference that a vaccine that passes FDA review wouldn't be safe.

Which brings us back to the OP and the cancelling of cruises: Until there is a vaccine and/or therapeutic or a combination of the two, I just don't see how the CDC is going to be able to issue guidance that allows for sailing in giant petri dishes regardless of what pressure an administration (new or old) attempts to place on them.

 

[insureman]

Your original question was "bigly" politically charged--so what did you expected in this thread?

Didn't mean it to be. Sorry you took it that way.

 

[jdg345]

Didn't mean it to be. Sorry you took it that way.

I think you had a very good question, but we're in strange times for sure and it's pretty easy for some topics (more than others) to deviate into areas that don't really play well with the TOS.

 

[dclpluto]

Hopefully all will follow the scientists.

Highly doubt it.

 

[jdg345]

Highly doubt it.

I think the science will be followed. It's just that the science is evolving, that's all. Like I said, I think we're still in "spaghetti mode" when it comes to this virus.

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

It's just so out of control in so many places in the U.S. already, and the holidays will likely exacerbate things since college kids will be going home and people will want to travel to be with family. (I'm personally ecstatic that I have an excuse to avoid the holiday shuffle to go see extended relatives after this election, and I'm sure I'm not alone in that). There will likely be a spike in cases due to these holiday gatherings, winter weddings, etc. And to answer OP's question, I think what the CDC or cruise lines will choose to do will be based on the science and the data no matter who is in charge. The CDC wants to avoid superspreader events, and the cruise lines want to avoid the expense of starting up only to have to halt things again if another ship winds up being quarantined for weeks. My personal opinion is we won't see cruising resume until June 2021 at the earliest.

 

[John VN]

Imagine if we had just listened to science 7 months ago!

DW and I listened to science 7 months ago along with many others, so me thinks you might have the wrong letter in front of 3rd word in your reply.

 

[Husker Mike]

What happens depends on what the scientists REALLY believe is the correct plan of action. It's been said that the current administration was opposed to extending the no-sail order into 2021.

If a cruise line can get a plan submitted to the CDC in the next two weeks, there is a chance that the 60 day window for the CDC to approve will occur under the current administration's policies, forcing the CDC to make a call.

If they cannot, then there is a chance that the scientists and new administration may take a more skeptical view of cruising and order a new no-sail order in January.

 

[DisneYE]

Imagine if we had just listened to science 7 months ago!

you don't think all these European countries listened to science the last 7 months?
france, germany, UK, Italy, Spain, etc have been in either partial or total lockdown since all this began and they are not any better than when they started..
"listen to science" is a nice campaign slogan but it rings hollow in all these places where science is listened to and cases & deaths are mounting by a lot every day

Europe, which has been "listening to science" from day 1 is going thru a substantial 2nd wave. (as are many other countries)
If this wave continues until march-april , we won't be seeing any cruises sailing from Europe.

So, if there's no vaccine/treatment by March-April, there will be no DCL in 2021.

 

[dclpluto]

DW and I listened to science 7 months ago along with many others, so me thinks you might have the wrong letter in front of 3rd word in your reply.

You are exactly right. Shame around 10 million and counting. in USA doesn’t listen. Once again it’s not that high that people don’t care. If one person i your house doesn’t care and gets covid other people in the house will probably get covid. We all need to have common sense and get through this. Don’t be scared but do the right thing. Also some people had no control of getting covid. Elderly in nursing homes. Totally not their fault that they got covid.