Will the new administration cancel American cruises for 2021?

[insureman]

Ok, I can't be the only one worried about this with the new President taking office. They seem to want to reverse what ever the present administration has in place so do you think they will have the CDC reverse their last order to allow cruising? I don't want to start a political debate after all we all want to cruise or we wouldn't be on this board.

 

[PrincessShmoo]

Ok, I can't be the only one worried about this with the new President taking office. They seem to want to reverse what ever the present administration has in place so do you think they will have the CDC reverse their last order to allow cruising? I don't want to start a political debate after all we all want cruise or we wouldn't be on this board.

I don't think the President can order the CDC how to word their advice. The CDC originally wanted to make the stoppage until February, and that was overruled and changed to Oct 31.

 

[jdg345]

I don't think the President can order the CDC how to word their advice. The CDC originally wanted to make the stoppage until February, and that was overruled and changed to Oct 31.

Correct, the President cannot change the CDC's direction -- they are independent. Which flies in the face of some of the ridiculous claims this last few months.

 

[LoveMickey]

Hopefully all will follow the scientists.

 

[jdg345]

Hopefully all will follow the scientists.

Well, that's the CDC ... they're the scientists. As long as the CDC remains independent, science will be followed.

 

[tvguy]

I don't think the President can order the CDC how to word their advice. The CDC originally wanted to make the stoppage until February, and that was overruled and changed to Oct 31.

Wasn't that change as a result of political pressure?

 

[tvguy]

November, December and January hospitalization rates will be critical to a decision. I am not prepared to say there will be no cruises in 20201, but with the current predictions on a spike, it may be summer before they resume. I am seeing more and more businesses announcing they are keeping their employees working remotely through June of 2021 based on those predictions.

 

[jdg345]

November, December and January hospitalization rates will be critical to a decision. I am not prepared to say there will be no cruises in 20201, but with the current predictions on a spike, it may be summer before they resume. I am seeing more and more businesses announcing they are keeping their employees working remotely through June of 2021 based on those predictions.

I have seen the same reports in terms of corporate responses (Summer 2021 or even all of 2021 working from home). Of course, there are various reasons for this.

Hospital and Death rates through the Flu season will be key. Brazil, for example, was hit exceptionally hard during their Fall/Winter.

I wonder if the CDC will update guidance or at least provide a standard for how illnesses/deaths/hospitalizations should be categorized.

 

[DCLMP]

yes

 

[gotomu212]

I’d be surprised if all of 2021 was cancelled out of the gate, but I think one of the reasons for the CLIA “voluntary” suspension through 2020 is because it is unknown if the no sail order will be reinstated and makes no sense to staff ships and then shut back down.

The career CDC officials wanted a longer no sail order and were overruled by the political appointees. During a transition they usually assume more power as the political appointees are removed and new appointees have to navigate Senate approval and acting status. There’s a huge cloud of uncertainty for a few months.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

Do the port authorities have any say in this? Or is it all controlled by the CDC?

 

[disneyseniors]

Ok, I can't be the only one worried about this with the new President taking office. They seem to want to reverse what ever the present administration has in place so do you think they will have the CDC reverse their last order to allow cruising? I don't want to start a political debate after all we all want cruise or we wouldn't be on this board.

No debate, but the news media cannot declare a President. The electoral college does that, not the news.
That is how I understand it is declared?

 

[jdg345]

I’d be surprised if all of 2021 was cancelled out of the gate, but I think one of the reasons for the CLIA “voluntary” suspension through 2020 is because it is unknown if the no sail order will be reinstated and makes no sense to staff ships and then shut back down.

The career CDC officials wanted a longer no sail order and were overruled by the political appointees. During a transition they usually assume more power as the political appointees are removed and new appointees have to navigate Senate approval and acting status. There’s a huge cloud of uncertainty for a few months.

I agree, I don't think 2021 will be cancelled out of the gate, but I do think we will have rolling cancellations that will likely go through most of 2021 before it's all said and done. It's going to come down to the accessibility of a vaccine and how many people are willing to take it. Keep in mind that the incoming administration has been against the currently vaccines in development due to their expedited schedules so there will be a bit of an upstream battle there as well.

 

[jtntx34]

No debate, but the news media cannot declare a President. The electoral college does that, not the news.
That is how I understand it is declared?

Correct. That said, I believe most cruise lines will remain cautious until after the inauguration in January. As someone posted previously, they will not want to ramp up until they are certain the CDC will not change course.

 

[tvguy]

No debate, but the news media cannot declare a President. The electoral college does that, not the news.
That is how I understand it is declared?

The News Media reports the facts. The Electoral College does in fact elect a President and based on the Electors that are legally bound to vote a certain way the outcome is known.

 

[jdg345]

No debate, but the news media cannot declare a President. The electoral college does that, not the news.
That is how I understand it is declared?

Correct, but based on the current counts, if they stand, that is where we would be at. They're going to move forward just like Bush/Gore in 2000. I believe that took something like 37 days to workout. In the end, I don't think anything changes, the votes are counted and co-mingled at this point.

Based on what we have seen when Administrations change, the OP is correct: The CDC will pick up a little more power as an independent body if there is a transition because it will take time to get appointees through the nomination process.

The big question is what direction the CDC will take: More lockdowns or less?

Lockdowns and Mask Mandates are prolific in Europe and they're having a wave unseen before. Many of the Cruise Lines have to follow not just US Guidance, but also Global Guidance.

Lots of questions, not really many answers.

 

[Chemist]

I think the fastest way to get cruises going is to get the virus under control. That would have been easier if we hadn’t gotten to this point.
We know what good choices and bad choices are. Make safe choices, virus goes down and maybe we can get fun stuff back.

 

[jdg345]

Correct. That said, I believe most cruise lines will remain cautious until after the inauguration in January. As someone posted previously, they will not want to ramp up until they are certain the CDC will not change course.

Yup, exactly, it's too costly to go through the process of opening to then have to close again. They're not going to move forward until they have a *very* clear path forward.

 

[insureman]

I agree, I don't think 2021 will be cancelled out of the gate, but I do think we will have rolling cancellations that will likely go through most of 2021 before it's all said and done. It's going to come down to the accessibility of a vaccine and how many people are willing to take it. Keep in mind that the incoming administration has been against the currently vaccines in development due to their expedited schedules so there will be a bit of an upstream battle there as well.

I hope you're wrong about the vaccines after all they have scientists developing those also.

 

[jdg345]

I think the fastest way to get cruises going is to get the virus under control. That would have been easier if we hadn’t gotten to this point.
We know what good choices and bad choices are. Make safe choices, virus goes down and maybe we can get fun stuff back.

No doubt, we must get the virus under control: Either via vaccine or via therapeutics or a combination of the two.

Hindsight is 20/20, so we need to deal with what we're experiencing now. But, remember that Europe had mass lockdowns and mask mandates and they're experiencing record breaking caseloads every other day.