You can call Disney now and book a room only. You'll be charged a deposit equal to one night at the highest rack rate for this current year. Once package rates are released, you can call back and convert to a package.
Unless you're all big eaters, you almost always come out ahead not paying on the Dining Plan, and instead booking room+tickets and paying out of pocket for dining.
Looking at historical data, there have been discounts every year for that time period. Free dining, up to 40% off room only, Kids stay and play free, discount ticket/room packages. You can expect to see discounts come out between October and January- though some years the discounts have come out shortly after package prices are released in August.
The only thing I'll alert you to is that the last weekend of February is the Disney Princess Half Marathon. There will be early morning road closures on Saturday and Sunday (the 22nd and 23rd) that will increase travel times from the resorts to the parks. If you plan on driving yourself, there will be detours, and it can be *very* difficult to get where you're going. Give yourself ample time to get to the parks in the morning if you plan on getting there for rope drop.
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