What are the odds of a hurricane in mid October?

[fairytalelover]

We are planning a Disney Cruise in mid-October and I was curious as to how many hurricanes have hit in mid-October in the past few years and what our odds are.

 

[Luv2Diz]

You "should" be okay, although Mother Nature has a mind of her own. Historically, the majority of severe hurricanes have generally been the last half of August and first half of September.

 

[Jestocost]

You "should" be okay, although Mother Nature has a mind of her own. Historically, the majority of severe hurricanes have generally been the last week of August and first week of September.

October actually is still in the peak hurricane season. Cruise rates will be cheaper for that reason. Your chances of not getting hit by a hurricane are still much better than running into one, but compared to other times the hurricane risk is higher than average.

 

[divabydisney]

Anything can happen. I cruised in October 2011 and it was quite the experience with the weather. While it wasn't a named storm, I think it easily should've been. Besides, it all turned out perfect anyway. I think a number of things can happen regardless of the month. While you are nearing the end of hurricane season in October, you just never know. But I say it's totally worth the risk.

 

[Luv2Diz]

We are planning a Disney Cruise in mid-October and I was curious as to how many hurricanes have hit in mid-October in the past few years and what our odds are.

You can do a Google search to get a list of hurricanes and the dates they hit. There have been a few in October, but the search I did shows that the majority have been earlier in the hurricane season.

 

[jdb in AZ]

Hurricane Sandy hit Florida near the end of October last year.

 

[yaddakal]

Gambling with August 16,2014 cruise. Trying to get somewhat better price while doing it on kids summer break..I searched like crazy . It's all a gamble June-Oct..

 

[magrudersmakes3]

Anything can happen. I cruised in October 2011 and it was quite the experience with the weather. While it wasn't a named storm, I think it easily should've been. Besides, it all turned out perfect anyway. I think a number of things can happen regardless of the month. While you are nearing the end of hurricane season in October, you just never know. But I say it's totally worth the risk.

We were on that same cruise and agree that it should have been named. It was only classified as a cyclone.

We said the end of September the following year and had perfect weather. We are now scheduled for the first week of November this year and hoping for good weather.

 

[TheWescotts]

We cruised Oct 12th last year and had wonderful weather.

Oct 20th cruise, which we thought about switching to got hammered by Sandy.

 

[dAnconia]

Found this.

http://**************.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/Hurricanes-at-Walt-Disney-World-2.jpg

 

[dAnconia]

Sorry, I did not realize that would show up so large.

 

[TwinPrincessMermaids]

This topic has come up before. I really hope the best for all Oct cruisers! However, I don't cruise in July-Oct and I'm on the fence about early Nov. Sept has the highest possibility I think, but Oct was when Hurricane Ivan came and devastated our coast line. Given that there is a bit of activity going on, it is a possibility. Plan accordingly. Btw, I do NOT go on vacation over Labor Day any more. Hurricanes/Systems have wrecked my plans two years in a row. (Michigan family trips being the only exception.) Even St Louis had a system blow up Labor Day weekend last year! So our camping trip was a no-go too.

 

[jahber]

We are planning a Disney Cruise in mid-October and I was curious as to how many hurricanes have hit in mid-October in the past few years and what our odds are.

The simple answer is your odds are pretty slim of a hurricane ruining your cruise. Speaking as a native Floridian, the idea of planning life around hurricane season is not practical for us. It's 6 months of the year and much of the rest of the year is just too cold for me to cruise (again, because I'm used to Florida weather). So we don't even hesitate to plan cruises and vacations during hurricane season (including our October cruise, which was the first Dream cruise after Sandy). I didn't mind the waves after Sandy and I'm used to rain, rain, rain. What I didn't like was how cold the wind and water were that late in the year! Worst case scenario once you're on the ship is missing a port or two (not counting the one of a kind situation on the Fantasy last year, which was quite unique). It's a possibility, but unlikely. But again, if we only vacationed during non-hurricane session, we'd be limiting ourselves to about 2 months of weather we could stand. So we take the risk. If you're worried, buy trip insurance and give yourself some peace of mind.

 

[aaklang]

October still has a very high probability of hurricanes. Last year, Hurricane Sandy nailed the Fantasy in mid/late October.

We cruised the first week of October last year and didn't have a hurricane or wind at all, but did get rainy days at two of our ports (Costa Maya and Cozumel).

 

[Bonniec]

As a Floridian I agree with Jahber. We are going in October and don't plan anything around hurricanes. The weather is too unpredictable at any time of year. I did purchase trip insurance and I am keeping an open mind that I may not go where I wanted. Stuff happens, we just deal with it when it does.

ETA; I might feel differently if DCL steers me INTO a hurricane like they did with Sandy. That looked nuts.

 

[WikiWiki]

Facts are, fall is risky. I delayed my WEDDING to the first week of November, even though I wanted an October wedding, because I wanted to avoid hurricanes. The only tropical storm that did anything that year? Hit the Florida coast the night we sailed! That said, it didn't ruin the cruise- we had really rough seas for about 16 hours, I got sea sick all over the place, and by the next day it was fine.

 

[jahber]

As a Floridian I agree with Jahber. We are going in October and don't plan anything around hurricanes. The weather is too unpredictable at any time of year. I did purchase trip insurance and I am keeping an open mind that I may not go where I wanted. Stuff happens, we just deal with it when it does.

ETA; I might feel differently if DCL steers me INTO a hurricane like they did with Sandy. That looked nuts.

Oh yeah! I would definitely be gun-shy if I had been on that Fantasy cruise. That was no walk in the park, and I wouldn't blame those passengers if they never sailed again. But personally, I'm much more worried about driving in the snow in Colorado this coming winter vacation than I am about a hurricane hitting us. Meanwhile, people up north drive in the snow all winter long because that's life for them. It's a matter of perspective, I think.


ETA: How's that for mixed metaphors?

 

[OKW Lover]

The odds of a hurricane in mid October are significantly less than in early September.

 

[Donna3271]

We sailed a 7 night Halloween cruise a few years back, and the Captain had to navigate around a hurricane. They did a great job. They even got the fireworks in on Pirate night. We were told the Captain had to do some fancy finagling to get the ship in a good location.

It was fine. They are prepared.

 

[jen3003]

We were on the Fantasy during hurricane Sandy last October. Yes, I can say it was definitely an experience!

The captain and crew, did the best job possible-under the circumstances. As for sailing into the hurricane, we were far enough behind it, until it stalled-no one could have ever predicted that. So for those that think the captain didn't care-trust me he did! I am certainly glad we had the most experienced captain that Disney Cruise Line has.

Would I sail again, in a heartbeat. In fact I just booked the 5-night on the Magic for October 20th. (The same week, as the Fantasy cruise last year.)

You take your chances, no matter where and when you travel. And I should know I was also in Disney during hurricane Francis back a few years ago-that hasn't stopped me from going to Disney World and neither has hurricane Sandy changed my mind about cruising.