Villa availability in 2009 and 2010 - Is my assumption correct ?

[abner1776]

Ok...the economy is in the toilet and people have cut back on their discretionary spending including vacations, etc. DVC members though have to use their points but since they do not want to travel they will end up banking their points into 2009 and 2010.

Meanwhile, DVC will sell off the unused 2008 points to CRO.

Now comes 2009 and 2010 and the economy improves so people begin traveling again and all of the DVC members now want to use their points that they banked from 2008 along with their 2009 and 2010 points.

Will this create a supply and demand problem which means an availabiltiy issue in 2009 and 2010 ??

 

[DebbieB]

I don't necessarily agree that it will hit members that hard. People who have made the committment to DVC are more likely to find a way to go rather than people who have to pay for hotels. After all, members have to pay dues whether they go or not.

 

[salmoneous]

These things can go either way. For everyone who has to cancel a vacation and bank their points due to economic woes, there may be somebody else who will borrow points, or use points they were going to bank, for an extra "free" trip, rather than spending money on non-DVC vacations.

Also, Disney has some powers to restrict banking and borrowing if things get out of hand. If all of a sudden masses of DVC's were banking their points, Disney can step up and try and stop future imbalances.

 

[DVCLiz]

Not for me. We've already borrowed all of our 2009 points into this year in order to take 3 DVC vacations, and if we want to go to WDW next year we'll borrow our 2010 points into 2009. With DVC, an AP, and a reasonable (10 hour) drive, WDW is the most affordable vacation we could take right now.

 

[riggins]

Not for me. We've already borrowed all of our 2009 points into this year in order to take 3 DVC vacations, and if we want to go to WDW next year we'll borrow our 2010 points into 2009. With DVC, an AP, and a reasonable (10 hour) drive, WDW is the most affordable vacation we could take right now.

AMEN!!! We're in the exact same boat! There is no chance that we'll be banking a bunch of points!!

We're a 9-hour drive away, so with driving, DVC, and APs, we can go to WDW for less than it cost to go just about anywhere else. So when things tighten financially, we're MORE likely to go to WDW!

 

[Mtnman44]

In the toilet? I don't think we're in anything other than a normal down trend that happens every decade. We've rocketed up nearly 6,000 points on the Dow and we're giving 2,000 or so back. My house gained almost $200K in value but now it has pulled back $50k. I'm still ahead $150K. The media creates these crisis for more interesting news and in some cases for their desired social/political change. Remember the impending Flu vacine shortage, or the West Nile Virus, or Y2K, and soon to be the Global Warming Hysteria? It's all history now, never having reached the predicted apocolyptic levels.

The housing/credit market is certainly having a shake up. Are you spending less? Are you traveling less? Is your life financially in the toilet? I think most people are behaving normally. There are ALWAYS examples on either extreme that could be pointed out. Our biggest WDW vacation ever is coming up this year and we can't wait. Stay happy, things work out, the market balances. The best course of action is to leave things alone.

 

[hellerjw]

Not for me. We've already borrowed all of our 2009 points into this year in order to take 3 DVC vacations, and if we want to go to WDW next year we'll borrow our 2010 points into 2009. With DVC, an AP, and a reasonable (10 hour) drive, WDW is the most affordable vacation we could take right now.

I agree. I wouldn't know what banking is like, we are always in borrow mode. We also live only about 9 hours away and usually have APs so for us its a very economical vacation.

I think too many people put too much emphasis on fuel costs, especially when driving. Its really a very small percentage, like 10% or so, of the total vacation outlay. It really doesn't cost us much more to go to Disney than to Myrtle Beach, Gatlinburg or another destination closer to home.

 

[PEANUT1]

my disney vacations will be the LAST thing that is cut in a weakend economy

 

[wildernessDad]

I don't think you'll find a ton of DVC members banking their points due to an economic downturn. If that happened, then Disney could just suspend banking to keep the balance of points in tact. But I don't see that happening at all.

This DVC member intends to continue vacationing through 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, etc. My current spreadsheet goes to 2014. In a few years, I'll have to add on some additional years to it.

 

[dallastxcpa]

If anyone is afraid they are going to lose their points due to not being able to bank them I will be more than happy to use them for you.

 

[bobbiwoz]

I hope the economy turns for the better. I'm not an economist and don't know what it will take, but I understand that not all parts of the country are going through bad times.

We've used about 1/4 of '09's points this year. I think our DS's family will travel to WDW only once next year, (in May, we're doing a 3 night DCL cruise/BCV stay ) they are doing it twice this year. We're not going to cut back on travel in general unless we're forced to.

Bobbi

 

[Island Mouse]

I don't think so. I've already borrowed most of my 2009 points to use this year.

 

[global_mom]

WDW is still a bargain for us so we wont scale back. An 8 hour drive, DVC, and annual passes make it the cheapest thing we can do.

DH is a Realtor and our area has bounced back in a big way. He has put 12 homes under contract in the past few weeks and is closing them w/o problems. The majority of his clients are not affected by the credit/mortgage crisis b/c they have down payments, good credit, etc. Things can change at any moment but we are seeing the shining light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully the "media hysteria" will calm down and people will feel more confident as the economy starts to turn. However, gas is a HUGE issue for us, like everyone else, but we will continue to go to WDW. We may give up a couple of TS restaurant meals to have money for the gas but we wont stay at home!

 

[Donald is #1]

Add me to the I don't think so category. I haven't been a member that long but I am basing my opinion on all of the people on waitlists for December of this year. I would think that if people were going to cut back, it would start this year.

 

[4Pluto]

The economic downturn is not just media hype or hysteria. It may not hit everyone or everywhere equally, but there are definitely businesses downsizing their purchases and expansion and people losing their jobs or trading down to jobs that do not pay as well.

I love vacationing at Disney but I'd be lying if I said that I wouldn't postpone or cancel a trip if my job were in jeopardy.

Will current economic conditions have an impact on room availability in 2009 and 2010. Who knows. Maybe members would be more likely to try to rent more points for cash than bank them to use later. There are LOTS of resales listed; eventually those points can't be further banked and will be forfeited. And for all we know, the foreclosure rate on timeshares may result in additional unused rooms.

Not to mention, that when the economy turns around, there's a period of time where business hesitates to hire additional workers and the current work loads increase; maybe 2009 and 2010 will see more members having to skip vacation to put in the extra hours at work.

Just some different thoughts on the subject. No crystal balls here.

 

[darlinboy]

I don't necessarily agree that it will hit members that hard. People who have made the committment to DVC are more likely to find a way to go rather than people who have to pay for hotels. After all, members have to pay dues whether they go or not.

I agree totally. DVC members are already more "committed" due to their upfront investment.

 

[DisFlan]

We're in the "commited" group. I'm hoping that after AKV and KTV are fully open, they (and the economy) will take a little pressure off the BWV standard views. That's where we usually stay to save points for more trips - and we like the SVs.

That might (ha!) sound a little selfish considering the havoc a recession would cause, but it would be nice not to HAVE to book the standard views at 11 months out, day by day, because they fill up so fast. But I hoped for the same thing before SSR opened - it didn't help much.

DisFlan

 

[tedisney]

I actually think that availability will be easier once all these developer points (twice guilty myself) stop clogging up the system.