Tropical Storm/Hurricane Questions

[becca-becca]

In general, about how long does it take for a TS/Hurricane to reach US soil (from start as a low pressure system or depression or whatever term they use to a full blown storm)? There is some sort of system near the Cape Verde islands. Is this likely to become a problem in the next few weeks? When are you home free (meaning you know you will be able to board ship at Cape Canaveral)?

 

[been2marceline]

In general, about how long does it take for a TS/Hurricane to reach US soil (from start as a low pressure system or depression or whatever term they use to a full blown storm)? There is some sort of system near the Cape Verde islands. Is this likely to become a problem in the next few weeks? When are you home free (meaning you know you will be able to board ship at Cape Canaveral)?

It all depends on winds. We were on the EB repo in 2005, caught one hurricane in Mexico, by the time we got to the canal, Katrina had formed, passed through our route and destroyed the Gulf coast from a depression in about 10 days.

Got to CC and another one formed right over our heads.

If they are boarding the ship - you are safe, if it is at all likely that you are in danger, the ship will either not dock, staying at sea or going to another port.

Comfort - is not guaranteed. Sometimes, there is no where to go that is comfortable, but the ship will always go somewhere safe/

The ships are designed to handle 30 to 40 foot waves easily, the human body is not.

 

[JennandJaryd]

In general, about how long does it take for a TS/Hurricane to reach US soil (from start as a low pressure system or depression or whatever term they use to a full blown storm)? There is some sort of system near the Cape Verde islands. Is this likely to become a problem in the next few weeks? When are you home free (meaning you know you will be able to board ship at Cape Canaveral)?

I think we are on the same cruise, 9/1/08 double dip? I am worried about this one also.

 

[ryrysmom14]

I've been wondering this same thing as well- I just googled it and then came here to just check in- how ironic!! I searched(very lightly) alot is so vague- the only thing definitive that I found was that Hurricane Isabel, for example, started out off of Africa on 9/1 and hit the Carolina coast on 9/15- so for that one about 2 weeks from Africa to US. I'm sure it differs depending on how fast, but at least it was a benchmark. The one that we are talking about is pretty far from Africa already, so I'm not really sure. I would love more insight!

I am also on the 9/1 double dip...so been watching lotsa Weather Channel!

Lorraine

 

[Laxmom]

Ok, so great minds think alike, fellow double dippers! We cruised last year in Sept and had smooth seas. Hoping for a repeat!! Being prepared just in cased!

 

[TheWescotts]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_model.html

I think this is what you are talking about. I am also on the DD and concerned about this. Right now it only has the potential for tropical development. The dots on each computer model line represent where they think it will go in 12 hour increments. So the end of the lines are roughly 5 days out. A lot can happen in 5 days so its really no telling yet. If it keeps at the same rate as what the predictions say then it would be within range of CC in about a week, Port canaveral in 8+/- days.

Now if you look back at Fay, they thought it would head straight up the middle of FL all the way up into NC. Then they thought it would curve west in GA/SC. What it has done is cross FL diagonally and is now looping back.

So there is no way to know if this will affect us at all. I'll for one be keeping an eye on it.

 

[Laxmom]

Not sure who posted this or where exactly but I heard that there was a low that was going to develop that would effect things trying to develop. It would steer the path away from Florida. Poster said that their husband is an amateur weather watcher. Hope they are right!!

 

[ryrysmom14]

Yippee- they downgraded it from medium to low probability of developing this morning! Doesn't mean it won't happen, but def encouraging. I really like the model with the dots- thanks for posting. We leave in 12 days, so maybe it will be gone. I like the blue dots the best!

 

[JNorris]

You can't be sure of anything. There is no set time for a depression to become a hurricane, and no set amount of time before it hits land. Remember we had one tropical storm/hurricane a couple of years ago that lasted 3 weeks in the Atlantic? Looped around at least a couple of times. Sometimes they get stalled in one place, sometimes the steering currents move it very quickly.

 

[Laxmom]

Let us enjoy the downgrade for the moment. It may be the only downgrade we will ever get that we can celebrate!

 

[karibritt01]

It is really WAY too early to let that system worry you. At this point it is WAY out, and not even classified as a depression. It is just a "wait and watch" thing right now.

Time from there to US soil can vary by so many things... steering currents, speed, and whether or not it ever develops. There have been several lows in that area this season that have dissipated. But even if it doesn't, it could turn and head north, and never affect anyone.

As for the track predictions... they can change constantly. Remember that 3 days ago Fay was supposed to hit at the panhandle and go north through NC. We have watched many storms predicted to hit Florida coast turn more with each update, and come in at NC.

 

[Finally08]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200894_model.html

I think this is what you are talking about. I am also on the DD and concerned about this. Right now it only has the potential for tropical development. The dots on each computer model line represent where they think it will go in 12 hour increments. So the end of the lines are roughly 5 days out. A lot can happen in 5 days so its really no telling yet. If it keeps at the same rate as what the predictions say then it would be within range of CC in about a week, Port canaveral in 8+/- days.

Now if you look back at Fay, they thought it would head straight up the middle of FL all the way up into NC. Then they thought it would curve west in GA/SC. What it has done is cross FL diagonally and is now looping back.

So there is no way to know if this will affect us at all. I'll for one be keeping an eye on it.

Well 7-8 or 8 days from CC and PC is fine with me...we won't be boarding for another 12 days so by then even if it is coming through, would be cleared out by then. It better hurry up and get over with...I bought seasick meds today just in case though.