To Buy 2042 or not to buy 2042

[havoc315]

I think the objection is not that some people might find McDonalds a better value, but rather with your characterization of BWV:GFV :: McDonalds:Shulas.

I can sort of see AllStars:GFV :: McDs:Shulas. I'd say BWV:GFV is more like BOATHOUSE:Topolinos. Definitely a difference, but not quite so stark as the one you've chosen.

(Unfortunately, I can't use the restaurants at the two locations, because I'm not sure how I'd rank Flying Fish vs. say, Citricos)

Agree your analogy is more accurate. My more extreme analogy was simply for illustration to make the point that you can't say one product is a better value than the other, when they are two different products.
In fact, objectively -- If it wasn't for the limited availability at 7 months, even if you preferred BWV... it would be cheaper to buy GFV points and use them at BWV. (with the lower dues and longer contract).

So "buy at BWV due to the point chart" is really a bit of red herring. It's "stay at BWV because of the point chart... if you happen to like BWV as much as the other resorts." But not necessarily buy there. And the cheaper point chart is irrelevant to you if it's a less desirable resort. If you really want Toppolino's or Citrico's, the Boathouse isn't an equal substitute even if it's cheaper.

 

[DonMacGregor]

But if you really want caviar, then guac isn't a substitute merely because it's cheaper.

Bro, those are fighting words here in So Cal...

 

[Cfabar1]

The more and more I considered this, I couldn’t support buying a WDW 2042 resort…. I love the Boardwalk area, but being under 40, it just is too hard to justify….

 

[gisele2]

I think that if the points continue to sink, than you could reconsider the Epcot area. I bought BCV because I love the location and I had a good price. The dues are in the midle range.

 

[Nabas]

Bro, those are fighting words here in So Cal...

I’ve done the math and although it would be fun to own at BRV, I just can’t convince myself that there’s enough of a savings in 18 years to justify a purchase. (We like the BRV rooms much better than CCV.)

Meanwhile, the price difference between OKW and SSR is so small that I just cannot justify buying at OKW.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I’ve done the math and although it would be fun to own at BRV, I just can’t convince myself that there’s enough of a savings in 18 years to justify a purchase. (We like the BRV rooms much better than CCV.)

Meanwhile, the price difference between OKW and SSR is so small that I just cannot justify buying at OKW.

Oh that's all fine, just don't bad mouth guac...

 

[winnieforme]

so will disney offer BWV extensions like OKW?

 

[Straulin]

so will disney offer BWV extensions like OKW?

I would be shocked. They will just let it expire and renovate then sell it as a renewed option with much worse point charts.

 

[RachStu]

so will disney offer BWV extensions like OKW?

I hope so as we’ve just bought there…

 

[intamin]

I hope so as we’ve just bought there…

If you bought there hoping for an extension.. I wouldn’t count on it. Sorry =/. With them adding all these things about resale restrictions, the failure of the first OKW extension and them likely wanting to make those point charts more expensive I would highly doubt it.

 

[RachStu]

No, we bought there as we stayed at Wilderness Lodge for the first time this Easter and fell in love with it. I toured the CCV and BRV rooms and preferred the BRV rooms. An extension or incentive in 2042 would be very welcome although didn’t form part of our decision to purchase.

 

[intamin]

No, we bought there as we stayed at Wilderness Lodge for the first time this Easter and fell in love with it. I toured the CCV and BRV rooms and preferred the BRV rooms. An extension or incentive in 2042 would be very welcome although didn’t form part of our decision to purchase.

I feel like at best they'd consider a minor increase in the incentives for buying when they sell the new contracts in 2042 if they decide to keep BWV/BRV/BCV in the DVC community at that time so here's to hoping for that possibly.

 

[jimschwerk]

Hello,

I am trying to determine the best way to calculate the “lost opportunity’ of the years after 2042 when determining the appropriate price to pay on resale for the older resorts vs. buying a resort that will last longer for me.

A bit of background, we are in our early 30s, and we would love to use DVC points well into our retirement as a way to have a “home away from home” instead of owning a second home. Obviously, the 2042 points would not allow that.

But, on the other hand, if it allows us to have affordable, fun family vacations with our young children, maybe it would be worth it to enjoy the memories over the next 20 years, and then do something else later in retirement.

Some like VB have much cheaper points rates, and the costs would go away after 20 years, but then again, we are losing something by not paying in in today’s prices for those extra years (say until 2064, 2068, etc.)

Does anyone have any suggestions about how to think about this To reflect the opportunity cost?

Buy where you love, regardless of contract length. DVC was never intended to be an investment in anything other than pure enjoyment and memories. Depending on the number of points you buy and subsequently the number of trips you take, I estimate a break even at 4-7 years. That means you'll have 12-15 years of paid for memories in deluxe accommodations at the resort you love. After that you're on Disney's dime. So if you decide to sell and are lucky enough to make a profit, great. If not, so be it. But you're still ahead of the game if you just run out the contract. We own Boardwalk, Boulder Ridge and Saratoga. For us, we are taking grandkids now. By the time our 2042 contracts expire, they'll be in college, married and ready to do there own thing. And we'll have aged out. Memories are timeless and priceless!

 

[JulieBeeRN]

We recently added on a BCV contract bc we wanted to have the home court advantage. We will be in our 70’s when it expires, but we have the money and really like staying there.

 

[Nabas]

I would be shocked. They will just let it expire and renovate then sell it as a renewed option with much worse point charts.

I too doubt that they will offer an extension. At best, I suspect current BWV will be offered a discount on what replaces it.

There are about 20 million points expiring in 2042. That's more than double the combined size of RIV and VGF2 (8.5 million). The next DVC resort (SSR) expires in 2054, and that has 14 million points. Unless more DVCs are built, this means these 20 million points have to last for 12 years. Conversely, it's a huge waste of money to intentionally leave these empty just to stretch them out.

 

[RachStu]

Unless more DVCs are built, this means these 20 million points have to last for 12 years. Conversely, it's a huge waste of money to intentionally leave these empty just to stretch them out.

It’s late here and I’m probably being a bit dense, but I don’t understand what you mean by this.

 

[Nabas]

It’s late here and I’m probably being a bit dense, but I don’t understand what you mean by this.

Each DVC has a certain number of DVC points that Disney sells.

Each DVC membership only lasts a certain number of years.

Several of the resort memberships expire in 2042, meaning Disney gets all of these resorts back in 2042.

If you add together all the DVC points associated with these DVC resorts, they add up to more than 20 million points.

Presumably, Disney will want to keep these as DVC, meaning they will be selling them starting in 2042.

Unless Disney builds more DVC resorts, the next batch of DVC resorts/points gets to take back is 12 years later, 2054.

 

[intamin]

I too doubt that they will offer an extension. At best, I suspect current BWV will be offered a discount on what replaces it.

There are about 20 million points expiring in 2042. That's more than double the combined size of RIV and VGF2 (8.5 million). The next DVC resort (SSR) expires in 2054, and that has 14 million points. Unless more DVCs are built, this means these 20 million points have to last for 12 years. Conversely, it's a huge waste of money to intentionally leave these empty just to stretch them out.

I would be surprised if they keep VB and HHI in the DVC bubble so I doubt we'd all see 20 million coming back in. I imagine those properties will likely be sold off. Of course this is all speculation. As much as I'd like to see more DVC properties off the resorts, based on how long it's taking them to sell off site resorts I doubt we'll see anymore.

Based on what we've seen recently, Disney has found it's answer to deluxe resorts that are having a harder time filling which is DVC. CCV and VGF converted a portion from cash to DVC. I don't know their reasoning tbh for the cabins at FW but I imagine they wouldn't do it if it didn't make sense for them financially.

 

[Nabas]

I don't know their reasoning tbh for the cabins at FW but I imagine they wouldn't do it if it didn't make sense for them financially.

My guess is that $500/night cabins at a campground are a tough sell for cash reservations, even if these are at Walt Disney World.

I suspect they were going to soon have to be torn down and replaced, and why do that for cash rooms that are difficult to fill.

As you suggest, DVC sometimes seems to be used as the Island of Misfit Toys.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Been very interested in the math of this thread as I've been kicking around the idea of buying resale for a while and at 2042 resorts no less. Will be going in July and split staying and BWV is one of the stays. Rented points. Wanna get a good feel for the resort and since this year's vacation is paid for I can wait till next year to see if there is a steep drop off in points as the expiration keeps looming ever closer. I think if by then $90 or thereabouts is passing ROFR I'll have an easy call. If prices still near the $110ish lows with one year less on contract then it'll probably be a no go. My vacation time is always off peak summer and I'd take my chances trying to get an Epcot resort at the 7 month mark. Very interesting the dynamics of DVC.