The Definitive Tier 1 DHS FP Strategy post 8/29

[CastAStone]

So we have enough information now about how people are booking FPs in the new tiering that I feel confident I can contribute a strategy that will actually help people maximize their trips:

UPDATE 9/1: Tower of Terror basically hasn’t has a meaningful wait since SW:GE opened. I will update this post depending how things go moving forward, but consider skipping TOT altogether from a FP perspective, and just booking as your 2nd FP whatever is available earliest of TSM and RNR.

Original strategy plan:

1. Prebook one of the following attractions as early in the morning as you can: SDD, TSM, RNR(prioritize in that order)
   • Do not prebook AS2 as it will likely have the shortest standby lines throughout the day, especially at night, and thus is the best choice to ride standby
   • Do not prebook ToT as it regularly has FPs available earliest in the day
   • If you can't get SDD in the morning, grab one of the others or resign yourself to RDing it (or use EMH if eligible). Getting an afternoon FP for it breaks the strategy
2. If your Tier 1 is late morning, book a Tier 2 before it. If you really want to ride Star Tours, book that immediately before or after your Tier 1 ride. Otherwise don't bother prebooking your tier 2s.
3. Day of, Ride your first Tier 1 FP, then pick up a Tier 2 FP for something that runs early, like Muppets, Little Mermaid, or Disney Jr. Scan in to the show and then leave.
4. Book a 2nd Tier 2 FP just like the last, scan in, then leave
5. Book your 2nd Tier 1 FP for Tower of Terror. You should be able to get one before 1PM
6. As soon as you scan in to Tower of Terror, book your 3rd Tier 1 FP for RNR, AS2, or TSM. They should be available for around 2-7PM, depending on the crowd level that day.
7. Visit Galaxy's Edge, if you can. TouringPlans reported that lines for Millennium Falcon (which does not offer FP) at Disneyland peak in the morning and then fall slowly as the day goes on.
8. As soon as you scan into your FP from Step 6, book a 4th Tier 1 FP if any are left. On lower crowd days there probably will be FPs for late in the day. Otherwise jump in line for what you missed just before close.

2 notes: on less busy days, RNR has fairly early FP availability but TSM does not. Prioritize TSM as your prebook. Also, on REALLY not busy days, you should be OK with an early afternoon SDD FP, then follow the plan as above.

Why am I confident in this plan?

• DHS will have about 5,000 FPs an hour in Tier 1. If the park is scheduling FPs from 9AM to 10PM, that's 65,000 FPs. DHS saw 31,000 guests on an average day in 2018.
• If those guests all prebook 1 tier 1 FP (they won't), they'll book everything from 9-3 (or more likely SDD all day and the other rides til about 2:30)
• As those guests use their FPs, they'll be able to start booking new Tier 1s, but only 5,000 people an hour can use their pre-booked FPs and this book more (plus they all have to get through all their Tier 2 reservations first). That means that if you are on top of if, you are 100% certain to get a 2nd Tier 1.
• With ToT consistently having 9AM hour FP availability on virtually all days looking forward, you need that to be your 2nd ride, which will then leave you 100% certain to be able to grab a 3rd Tier 1, and possibly (probably?) even a 4th.

Good luck!

 

[MaxSkywalker]

This seems like a really solid plan. We got:

11am FP+ - RnR (for two of us), TSM (for three of us)
12pm FP+ - Muppets (all of us - I think we will actually watch the show)
1pm FP+ - Star Tours (all of us)

We plan to be there during EMH so hopefully we can bang out all the TSL rides (SDD is the challenge) and the older boy and I can hit ToT and RnR. Hopefully we'll be done with all of that before the regular crowd arrives and we can make it to SWGE before 9. But your strategy is interesting if morning crowds really are going to be worse. We were hoping to leave HS by 2, nap, and hit MK in the evening. So I guess we'll be monitoring Smuggler's Run ride times to see when the best time to go will be (we're not going til October). If you're right, we may have to adjust and try to do SWGE at noon or so and move up our FP+ (which could also allow us to grab a fourth FP+)

 

[CastAStone]

This seems like a really solid plan. We got:

11am FP+ - RnR (for two of us), TSM (for three of us)
12pm FP+ - Muppets (all of us - I think we will actually watch the show)
1pm FP+ - Star Tours (all of us)

We plan to be there during EMH so hopefully we can bang out all the TSL rides (SDD is the challenge) and the older boy and I can hit ToT and RnR. Hopefully we'll be done with all of that before the regular crowd arrives and we can make it to SWGE before 9.

I think hitting TSL during EEMH is a way better plan than trying to do it with FPs. I wrote this assuming no EMH. Anything you can knock out during magic hours will just make life better. Touring Plans has predicted that people who arrive at 6AM will be able to to all 5 Tier 1 rides before 9, and that seems right to me.

 

[MaxSkywalker]

Oh I agree, we just had to use our Tier One FP+ on something and SDD was gone. By the time we use our FP+ at 11am, my plan is that we will have already been on the ride once or twice. Is there a better way to use that FP+?

 

[Jennasis]

I'm pretty confident that after we use our 3 FP (Star Tours, Muppets and ToT), we will find something worthwhile doing refresh. Not worried. Or, we will just leave the park and go hang in the pool (and not spend any money LOL).

 

[Rach3975]

Thanks for the assessment! That lines up well with what I'm hoping to do. We're going once EEMH ends, and my goal is to arrive *very* early to RD MFSR then TSM FP at 10 (using it closer to 11), Star Tours FP at 11, and a Tier 2 that I can move to immediately after our ST. I'm hoping for a ToT FP after that. We leave around 1 to catch Magical Express, so we can't wait for MFSR waits to drop later in the day.

 

[CastAStone]

Thanks for the assessment! That lines up well with what I'm hoping to do. We're going once EEMH ends, and my goal is to arrive *very* early to RD MFSR then TSM FP at 10 (using it closer to 11), Star Tours FP at 11, and a Tier 2 that I can move to immediately after our ST. I'm hoping for a ToT FP after that. We leave around 1 to catch Magical Express, so we can't wait for MFSR waits to drop later in the day.

I imagine that should be possible unless you’re going over a holiday. To increase your chances you may want to see if you can get your first tier 2 FP at 9 and just not use it. The system should treat it like you did use it for booking purposes.

 

[hiroMYhero]

Booking additional Tier 1 rides in Tiered parks has been in the FP FAQ ADDENDUM since 2016 when Tiering began.

@marciemi explains all the steps especially for those who don’t understand Tiering and initial FP booking:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/f...nytime-bonus-fps-cl-fps.3538258/post-56320825

 

[CastAStone]

Booking additional Tier 1 rides in Tiered parks has been in the FP FAQ ADDENDUM since 2016 when Tiering began.

@marciemi explains all the steps especially for those who don’t understand Tiering and initial FP booking:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/f...nytime-bonus-fps-cl-fps.3538258/post-56320825

It’s a great thread. My goal here was more to give tips on what order to book the attractions in, particularly with TOT bookings behaving so differently than the other Tier 1s

 

[hiroMYhero]

It’s a great thread. My goal here was more to give tips on what order to book the attractions in, particularly with TOT bookings behaving so differently than the other Tier 1s

I know; just also referencing how to book Tiers in a Tiered park which many who are new to booking FPs don’t understand.

 

[Rach3975]

I imagine that should be possible unless you’re going over a holiday. To increase your chances you may want to see if you can get your first tier 2 FP at 9 and just not use it. The system should treat it like you did use it for booking purposes.

It's a Tuesday morning early in November, so hopefully it will work out. Some people have been reporting issues with FPs not expiring (and no rhyme or reason why some do and others don't), so I'm hesitant to book one I can't tap into.

 

[jenny-pooh]

Thank you, CastAStone! I book my FPs a week from today and this is exactly the kind of advice I was looking for!

 

[CastAStone]

Updated first post to reflect that TOT has been a walk-on for large portions of each of the last 4 days (since SWGE and MFSR opened) and as such is not worth using a FP on at all right now.

 

[monkeymostpurple]

So, maybe a dumb question: if, RIGHT NOW, there are no FP availability at any time for a day in October, why/how will there be availability for those rides on the day of? Is it because there's a reliable % of FPs that get dropped over the course of the day?

 

[Rach3975]

So, maybe a dumb question: if, RIGHT NOW, there are no FP availability at any time for a day in October, why/how will there be availability for those rides on the day of? Is it because there's a reliable % of FPs that get dropped over the course of the day?

I don't know how many get dropped by Disney, though some clearly do. But people also change their plans last minute, so that opens some up, too. Even outside of Disney drops, you may luck into something. Or you may not, which is how my day-of luck seems to go!

 

[CastAStone]

So, maybe a dumb question: if, RIGHT NOW, there are no FP availability at any time for a day in October, why/how will there be availability for those rides on the day of? Is it because there's a reliable % of FPs that get dropped over the course of the day?

What day? I’d like to look into that.

 

[monkeymostpurple]

What day? I’d like to look into that.

Friday, October 18. Sorry, to be clear: there are some FPs, but none for SDD or Star Tours, for example.

I was able to get the following FPs at the 60 day mark:
9:55 RNR
1:00 Star Tours
[went with a later Indiana Jones show for the third one, but this is very non-essential, and would do an early show, scan and skip, if there was a chance of getting a later in the day Tier 1, especially for SDD]

 

[CastAStone]

Friday, October 18. Sorry, to be clear: there are some FPs, but none for SDD or Star Tours, for example.

I was able to get the following FPs at the 60 day mark:
9:55 RNR
1:00 Star Tours
[went with a later Indiana Jones show for the third one, but this is very non-essential, and would do an early show, scan and skip, if there was a chance of getting a later in the day Tier 1, especially for SDD]

Ah. I am not sure if I’m allowed to link to another message board, but I’m gonna try it because I’ve found this link helpful https://forum.touringplans.com/t/current-same-day-fp-drops/60645/8

 

[thepicklebee]

So, maybe a dumb question: if, RIGHT NOW, there are no FP availability at any time for a day in October, why/how will there be availability for those rides on the day of? Is it because there's a reliable % of FPs that get dropped over the course of the day?

If Disney didn't drop additional FP availability in, there would be no chance of same day FP options for people coming in for the day.

 

[monkeymostpurple]

This all makes so much more sense now! Got it! Thanks for indulging my confusion.