State of Fast Pass Return (or replacement)

[Mac30188]

Catching up on YT park videos today and no doubt it's obvious that many of the posted wait times are SIGNIFICANTLY inflated. Examples being Kyle Pallo showing a 15 minute wait time for Everest (with a posted 40 minute wait) in his video from 7/18 and again with his 7/17 video where the posted wait for MFSR was 50 minutes and it was a LITERAL WALK ON. In the same video he said the posted 80 minutes for Slinky Dog was not correct and was under, and comments that Disney does not seem to be updating wait times in the evening. Plenty of other evidence that the official wait times are inflated. Oh and these were on a Friday/Saturday.

As a DL vet who is planning my first ever WDW trip, seeing park regulars walk up to a ride and just by looking at the line know it's wrong is frustrating to me. Clearly Disney has the technology to accurately post wait times. If I were leaving today, there is no way on my first Orlando trip I'd be able to tell if the wait time is accurate just looking at a line.

So that got me thinking. Why are the wait times so off, and as far as I can tell, always LONGER than posted? As it will be my first trip, I am relying on the app to guide my ride planning. Now as a member here and a YouTube watcher, I've likely got more information than the average first timer, but still pretty clueless. If I see a 50 minute wait for MFSR I'd be torn about waiting, but if it accurately showed 5 or 10 minutes I'd head over. Likewise I probably wouldn't stop and wait 40 minutes for Everest just walking by, but 15? Yeah probably!

So what's Disney doing? The Disney fan in me wants to think it's related to staffing or maybe other post-covid issues are taking priority (considering the comments about trash this may be at least part of it). But the realist part of me thinks this is somehow tied in with the rumored paid fast pass deal. A family on their first visit or their "once in 5 years" trip would be more likely to pay for fast passes if they see a park full of long wait times on the app without the knowledge of being able to tell if the line is actually that long. The reports that the inaccuracies are nearly always overestimates (and significantly off) make me feel this is wholely intentional by Disney. Get a bunch of buzz about the lines being crazy with no FP option, and ride in on that white horse waiving the Paid FP+ flag to save us noobs from a disastrous vacation of waiting in lines.

Yes, I realize that many rides do in fact have terribly long waits right now. But again, is it by design? I mean if everything has super long wait times posted, it makes sense more people are going to choose to wait for the best/most popular rides. I mean, if Soarin, Mission Space and Frozen are all 60 minutes, what are you getting in line for? Probably not Mission Space. So posted wait times can "push" guests towards bigger rides. So all Disney would have to do is inflate wait times on some rides to push guests to big ticket rides, then those rides actually get more filled, making guests feel more pressured to pay for fast passes to skip those lines.

Yeah, maybe I'm in tin foil hat territory thinking Disney is playing 4D chess that well with the whole possible paid FP stuff. Still though, it's crazy odd that wait times for only some rides are so inaccurate, and seemingly always overestimated.

I wonder if line length is anywhere in the algorithm and therefore distorting the times. For example, you maybe standing at a same spot in line that they would predict would take 55 minutes in a pre-covid / fastpass world, however since the lines are moving, the estimate is even more inflated than normal. If this problem did exist, I can't see Disney investing a lot of time or resources in fixing it since everything will change once again when a FP or replacement system is in place. Shrug, just a guess.

 

[AMartin767]

Yeah, maybe I'm in tin foil hat territory thinking Disney is playing 4D chess that well with the whole possible paid FP stuff. Still though, it's crazy odd that wait times for only some rides are so inaccurate, and seemingly always overestimated.

Actually, I don't think this idea is a stretch at all. Artificial Demand is not a new concept and it certainly isn't 4D chess.

 

[mercuryvenus]

I wonder if line length is anywhere in the algorithm and therefore distorting the times. For example, you maybe standing at a same spot in line that they would predict would take 55 minutes in a pre-covid / fastpass world, however since the lines are moving, the estimate is even more inflated than normal. If this problem did exist, I can't see Disney investing a lot of time or resources in fixing it since everything will change once again when a FP or replacement system is in place. Shrug, just a guess.

My husband said something along those same lines (no pun intended ). He said that they might be using a form of electronic line monitoring that reads the socially distanced lines as very, very long and can’t really accurately measure the fact that they’re moving and therefore aren’t actually as long as they appear.

 

[123SA]

Is there still social distancing in the lines?

 

[Moliphino]

Asking what I'm sure is a dumb question.... I was there long before this digital fastpass system was a thing. (I barely remember using paper ones once). But, it looks like all the FP info is done via the MDE app now. Or at least when it was working. Why do they need all the kiosks? Are there that many people who can afford DW but don't have a smart phone? I could see needing a few I guess but maybe I'm missing something about the system.

Or international guests who may not be able to use data and can't depend on the spotty park wifi.

 

[finedice]

Agreed. They always post high. Yet, they are higher than before for sure. My assumption is that if they undershoot, people get upset, miss dining reservations, etc. Also, they use it as a tool toward closing time to discourage folks from jumping in line last-minute. When people get in a line and it says 120 minutes and they are off the ride in 80, they are smiling... sort of...

 

[finedice]

Is there still social distancing in the lines?

No. Also, they require masks for monorail, but are not moving to enforce. Not sure about busses.

 

[Loro]

Again, based on what I saw the last couple of days, I don't think they can bring it back without a lot more things opening up again. If the long lines were to slow even a little, people would totally lose it. Experienced Disers and current/ past cast members I've spoken with agree, don't hold your breath!

We will have to agree to disagree, especially since it is proven that FP+ doesn't significantly affect standby waits. Not sure who you've spoken to, but my source and friends have said otherwise. Everyone I know can't wait for some form of it to return, cast members included.

While some people-eating experiences still have yet to open (a few are opening in the next few weeks though), FP+ would overall help. People will generally better accept waiting on some lines if they don't have to on others.

 

[finedice]

My husband said something along those same lines (no pun intended ). He said that they might be using a form of electronic line monitoring that reads the socially distanced lines as very, very long and can’t really accurately measure the fact that they’re moving and therefore aren’t actually as long as they appear.

No social distancing, and the "outside" queues are likely not being scanned at all. They are doing a very good job loading and keeping the lines moving though.

 

[finedice]

We will have to agree to disagree, especially since it is proven that FP+ doesn't significantly affect standby waits. Not sure who you've spoken to, but my source and friends have said otherwise. Everyone I know can't wait for some form of it to return, cast members included.

While some people-eating experiences still have yet to open (a few are opening in the next few weeks though), FP+ would overall help. People will generally better accept waiting on some lines if they don't have to on others.

Well, I was skeptical before, but not after the last two days. There is absolutely no question that FP increases the SB wait. The lines are moving very fast. Space Mountain was posted at 70 minutes when we got in line. The line filled the normal queue, spilled outside for about 200 yards of winding temporary switchbacks, and we were off the ride in 40 minutes. If you come this summer, your mind will be changed on that.

I recall last Feb, riding with FP, and we would get to the last set of switchbacks at the end of the inner queue, and it could take 25+ minutes just from there, or more sometimes. That portion took like 6 minutes yesterday.

 

[Mac30188]

I believe the truth of speed of Standby lines is largely a manner of perspective.

There is no doubt that having a FastPass line will absolutely slow down the speed of a Standby line, but does it make standby waits longer? Well to look at the overall waits, you have to balance out that fact that you will have more standby users if you don't have a Fastpass line. So the line is longer but also moves faster without Fastpass. It is shorter but moves slower with Fastpass. Does that significantly impact standby wait times, probably at a micro level where Fastpass may slightly spread users from E tickets to secondary attractions, but at the higher level I doubt it changes a lot. You have a fixed number of attractions and a fixed number of guests. It just shifts the crowds slightly so a greater percentage of guests have access to the E-Ticket rides.

 

[bean]

Labor costs are very hi


Labor costs are very high and id imagine something to do with the union agreement as well.

Yes, this. I think all of the shows, parades, etc that haven’t returned yet all involve equity performers.

 

[Loro]

Well, I was skeptical before, but not after the last two days. There is absolutely no question that FP increases the SB wait. The lines are moving very fast. Space Mountain was posted at 70 minutes when we got in line. The line filled the normal queue, spilled outside for about 200 yards of winding temporary switchbacks, and we were off the ride in 40 minutes. If you come this summer, your mind will be changed on that.

I recall last Feb, riding with FP, and we would get to the last set of switchbacks at the end of the inner queue, and it could take 25+ minutes just from there, or more sometimes. That portion took like 6 minutes yesterday.

The data says otherwise. I don't have the links handy, but touring plans did a study on it a while back. The differences in waits were negligible. It just seems faster now because the lines are moving more constantly.

 

[lovethesun12]

Spent 4 days at UO last week. Many 90 minute waits posted most of the day. We had EE & UEP though and had a good time. Without EP, would have been horrible.

Yes, that's what I meant. You can do the park without a ton of advance planning (purchase EE in this case). I was responding to a poster that said it's a person's own fault if they don't plan, but the other parks are not as complicated to plan for.

 

[tinkerhon]

Current line for Gran Fiesta .-lol..

 

[tinkerhon]

No. Also, they require masks for monorail, but are not moving to enforce. Not sure about busses.

Busses still requiring, but so many people removing them the minute they sit down

 

[TommyJK]

The data says otherwise. I don't have the links handy, but touring plans did a study on it a while back. The differences in waits were negligible. It just seems faster now because the lines are moving more constantly.

I have a bit of a problem with the Touring Plans study that is so often cited. The key issue being it was done shortly after FP+ was introduced after the regular FastPass system had already been in place and used for so long. So it was comparing standby waits from a period of change of FastPass to FastPass+. Not to mention that it was a study done when FP+ was still new (2013/2014). We don't know precisely how things have changs with the system over time in terms of how many people fully used it back then vs. now, or how many FP+s they issued per attraction per hour then vs. now or so many other variables that may have changed.

So to me I don't think anyone can say with any certainty how much impact FP+ truly has on Standby wait unless you can do a proper study of FP+ vs. no FP system at all. Although I'm sure with the state we are in now, it would be a prime opportunity to do such a study of a comprehensive comparison of wait times now (when there is no FP+) vs. say summer of 2019. I'm sure crowds are somewhat similar between those two timeframes.

 

[cakebaker]

My husband said something along those same lines (no pun intended ). He said that they might be using a form of electronic line monitoring that reads the socially distanced lines as very, very long and can’t really accurately measure the fact that they’re moving and therefore aren’t actually as long as they appear.

They aren't social distancing in line anymore and haven't for I dunno, a couple of weeks at least?

 

[preemiemama]

Again, based on what I saw the last couple of days, I don't think they can bring it back without a lot more things opening up again. If the long lines were to slow even a little, people would totally lose it. Experienced Disers and current/ past cast members I've spoken with agree, don't hold your breath!

I totally agree- and was saying the same thing last week. Right now we have too many people and not enough to do. I know a few things are coming (Turtle Talk, BatB, Monsters) but there needs to be even more.

 

[preemiemama]

I have a bit of a problem with the Touring Plans study that is so often cited. The key issue being it was done shortly after FP+ was introduced after the regular FastPass system had already been in place and used for so long. So it was comparing standby waits from a period of change of FastPass to FastPass+. Not to mention that it was a study done when FP+ was still new (2013/2014). We don't know precisely how things have changs with the system over time in terms of how many people fully used it back then vs. now, or how many FP+s they issued per attraction per hour then vs. now or so many other variables that may have changed.

So to me I don't think anyone can say with any certainty how much impact FP+ truly has on Standby wait unless you can do a proper study of FP+ vs. no FP system at all. Although I'm sure with the state we are in now, it would be a prime opportunity to do such a study of a comprehensive comparison of wait times now (when there is no FP+) vs. say summer of 2019. I'm sure crowds are somewhat similar between those two timeframes.

Having been there in 2019, I would venture a guess that there are more people there right now. Just my opinion, but it sure felt a lot more crowded. I suppose it could be the lack of people eating shows, meets and parades, too, but it was crowded.

I would also say that in my experience (not scientific, I know) that PotC is definitely better without FP. In 2019, we would wait 20-30 minutes at the end of the night easily if we did not have a FP. This trip, we got in line with a posted 30 minute wait and were on a boat in under 15. That line wound around the queue like crazy- outside, through the former FP line, back around and to the split between the loading areas. But it moved. So, minimum we waited 10 minutes less this trip than in 2019 when in standby.

I don't think that rides like PotC, IASW, HM that can eat people fairly well should be FP. Let them do their job and move the people through efficiently to 1. give people something to wait for that's manageable and 2. take the stress off of other more popular rides. I'd also argue BTMRR or Space, with their 2 line loading setup, should not have an entire side of their capacity shut down for FP. Maybe merge them somewhere at the split (which I think I remember BTMRR did) so the load capacity reduces standby wait. This would definitely help at Space! Even now, they are only utilizing the entire right side of that ride for DAS, Rider Swap, etc. just as they were for FP. It would certainly help keep the wait times down if both sides loaded more equally.

I guess all this to say that I'm hoping when they bring whatever version of FP is coming they address some of these issues/ inefficiencies.