Social Clubs and a $3 to $5 monthly increase shouldn't weed them out. The only thing I can see that would weed them out is if the closures next year will affect them enjoying the parks or not. Otherwise most people will renew their passes. The monthly payment increase is no more than the increase in water bills or cable TV bills these days. With so many clubs, those in school, even college, are enjoying the facebook posts, etc. If anything, there will be even more passholders as time goes onward. Also the new billboards around town advertising them, along with Disney's official pages on social media is encouraging even more visits. Renewing also gives many a $20 to $50 discount if they renew before the current pass expires.
The addition of free photopasses is allowing some passholders to "sell" a service to send photos to those out of town. There was no limit to the number of Photopass numbers you could add to your own account as of last week.
I personally feel Disney is looking to increase annual passholders. There is nothing I can see they are doing that is aimed at decreasing them.