So confused! Which site to believe...

[lcznc]

Hi everyone-

I am not a frequent poster, but I am hoping all of you DIS veterans can provide me with some guidance. I have subscribed to both TGM and TP for our upcoming trip (late Spetember). Now that Sept hours our out, I am tentatively trying to begin mapping out our trip so that I am prepared to make our ADR's in a few weeks.

We have used TP in the past with success and this is the first time we have tried TGM. Here is where I am getting confused-their recommended park days are in complete conflict with each other for about half the days of our trip. Which site do I believe??? Any help is greatly appreciated! Thanks so much!

 

[Kellyh123]

The only one I have used is TGM. I have used it since 2004 and I love it. This is the only plan I will pay for and believe me I am pretty stingy about that stuff. TGM has always been right on for the recommended park days for all of our trips!

 

[GaSleepingBeautyFan]

They both use different formulas to figure out which park which day. It's always best to just pick one and stick with it. Otherwise you'll drive yourself nuts.

I've used TGM in the past and been happy with it. This time I used Touring Plans and it was ok but everyone seemed to be following that plan so it didn't seem to work for me.

I'm going to go back to TGM for my next trip I think. I really like how the days are split since I tend to park hop.

 

[nkereina]

What's TGM? I'm subscribed to TP but would like to try this one out. Thanks!

 

[khgreen]

Tour Guide Mike has never steered us wrong! I know his site needs some updating....but IMHO his advice is the best. This year I subscribed to TP as well but I don't think I'll use it. Plus TGM provides a lot of "How to tour" details that I really like and use-very specific info and advice.

 

[wdw4rfam]

I personally don't put too much into predictions on how crowded the parks will be. We have used them and not seen any difference between days that were expected busy and a few days later when they were supposed to be light. My advice, just avoid whatever park offers evening extra magic hours- that I have seen personally, will make that park more crowded ALL day.

 

[NWOhioAngela]

TGM hasn't published his recommendations for September yet. When I look at the site, its showing data from September 2010. Maybe that's why thing are so off for you?

 

[vicki_c]

TGM hasn't published his recommendations for September yet. When I look at the site, its showing data from September 2010. Maybe that's why thing are so off for you?

No, TGM has published his Least Crowded Charts for September. They were published 2/12 & 2/13. The link still says 2010 in the title - looks like a typo but the charts are released. (If you don't see them, just look in the "updates" box on the AVP page.)

 

[vicki_c]

They both use different formulas to figure out which park which day. It's always best to just pick one and stick with it. Otherwise you'll drive yourself nuts.

I agree with this - trying to mesh info from various sources often ends up frustrating.

 

[NWOhioAngela]

No, TGM has published his Least Crowded Charts for September. They were published 2/12 & 2/13. The link still says 2010 in the title - looks like a typo but the charts are released. (If you don't see them, just look in the "updates" box on the AVP page.)

Oops! Vicki is right as usual!
I'll throw my 2 cents in for TGM too. Never steered me wrong. I added touring plans this year too just to get a feel for it, and I like TGM better. TP has been off on its predictions quite a few times in recent months, so I'm going with what I know.

 

[Minniemouse07]

I think I would lean more towards TP than TGM since TP bases their predictions on hard data collected by their staff.

There is also a great explanation of HOW to use their crowd calendar info on their site (ie about how they automatically exclude EMH parks for "best park" status but if you have hoppers you should use the individual park crowd predictions and utilize them, etc).

We always use TP's recommendations when planning our trips and have never waited on any line longer than 20min...even on busy days!

 

[vicki_c]

Oops! Vicki is right as usual!
I'll throw my 2 cents in for TGM too. Never steered me wrong. I added touring plans this year too just to get a feel for it, and I like TGM better. TP has been off on its predictions quite a few times in recent months, so I'm going with what I know.

ha ha - only right because I said the same thing (about it saying 2010) on another thread a few days ago, then went back and looked harder!

 

[Mickeylover65]

Have never used TP but have used Tour Guide Mike a number of times. If you follow his plans you'll be amazed at what you can do. I have never had any bad advice or problems with TGM.

 

[cigar95]

No, TGM has published his Least Crowded Charts for September. They were published 2/12 & 2/13. The link still says 2010 in the title - looks like a typo but the charts are released. (If you don't see them, just look in the "updates" box on the AVP page.)

This might be part of the reason for the discrepancy - Touring Plans bases their park recommendations in part on what's least crowded, but includes other factors as well, such as how long the parks are open, and on EMH.

For example, morning EMH used to almost always make a park one to avoid, because that made touring more difficult for off-site guests. However, for those staying on-site and willing to get up early, the opposite would often be the case.

Similarly, an event like MNSSHP would also make a park one to avoid, because the shorter hours made touring less desirable, even if the shorter hours also lent itself to lower crowds.

some of these "formulas" have been tweaked recently by the men behind the curtain - a bit of searching for blog posts from Fred will describe that.

 

[momto2inKC]

Tour Guide Mike We used TP our first trip and vowed NEVER again! Especially after using TGM on our next trip. The difference was amazing. TGM has *never steered us wrong as to which park we should go to

 

[Minniemouse07]

I should clarify that it is my understanding that TP's crowd estimates are based on wait times for attractions NOT how many people are in the parks.

So the number in their calendar will indicate on a percentile basis what your average wait times rank on any given day, not how many people go through the turnstiles.

I could be wrong in my understanding but after using them for the last ten years as well as listening to Len speak about the data collection and formulas on multiple podcasts...that is what I remember.

If you would like to get more insight into the history and process of the UG Touring Plans, the Betamouse podcast had Len as a guest for a two part episode a month or so ago. Very interesting stuff!

 

[Mrs. Bradbury]

Many years ago, when I was younger and inexperienced in the ways of Disney, I used TP's suggestion that MK would be great on the Saturday of the Christmas parade taping. It was a disaster. Never again! We've used TGM many times with fantastic results.

 

[Minniemouse07]

Many years ago, when I was younger and inexperienced in the ways of Disney, I used TP's suggestion that MK would be great on the Saturday of the Christmas parade taping. It was a disaster. Never again! We've used TGM many times with fantastic results.

Interesting... my family went to MK one year on the Saturday of the parade taping and while getting past the entrance and the Hub was a bit of a challenge, once past them the park was fairly empty.

I would go again on that day in a heartbeat.

 

[dzorn]

Hi everyone-

I am not a frequent poster, but I am hoping all of you DIS veterans can provide me with some guidance. I have subscribed to both TGM and TP for our upcoming trip (late Spetember). Now that Sept hours our out, I am tentatively trying to begin mapping out our trip so that I am prepared to make our ADR's in a few weeks.

We have used TP in the past with success and this is the first time we have tried TGM. Here is where I am getting confused-their recommended park days are in complete conflict with each other for about half the days of our trip. Which site do I believe??? Any help is greatly appreciated! Thanks so much!

Honestly I would not stress over this. Both will update and change as September gets closer.

Denise in MI

 

[lcznc]

Thank you all so much for your help! I am just going to kind of take a step back and when we get closer to our ADR window I will re-evaluate. Glad to hear all of the great TGM reviews. This is our first year that we have signed up for his service. Now I am kind of anxious to try it

Thanks again!