Maybe so but Disney can always change their mind the closer we get to it. Danny might be hearing that now but once they see that rooms are not booking up they may find they need to offer free dining or something better. Just like before when they announced no more discounts and than turned around and offered free dining with dates well in advance of ever before. I myself would not go back without a discount at least equal to what we saved with free dining. I have found that over our 6 total trips a lot has changed and not for the better. At the same time prices are going up every year the quality of what you are receiving for that money is going down imo. The New Fantasyland is nice but is not enough to justify the price increase for this year imo.
I'll agree with you that the quality has declined and the Fantasyland Expansion is not enough of an incentive to bring a lot of people back. I pretty much disagree with everything else.
Disney never said that they were eliminating discounts. Bob Iger did say that they would be scaling them back. And they have. Room discounts used to be up to 45% off of the rack rate. Now the highest is around 35%. Free Dining went from
DDP at all resorts to QSDP at the Values and you had to buy at least a 2-day MYW pass now instead of the 1-day ticket requirement it once was. Package deals have not been anywhere as good as they once were when kids played and ate for free or you could pay for 4 nights and get 7.
They plan these marketing promotions a year in advance. Even after 9/11 and the market crash in the Fall of 2008, they didn't do much to entice visitors. They stayed the course and weathered it out by closing whole sections of resorts and laying people off. They aren't going to look at the number of rooms they have booked for Sept. when August rolls around and say "we need to do something to fill these room, let's offer free dining at the Values!."
They are not losing money at the values by offering free dining. The price of a room at a value is well above what you would spend outside of Disney with more amenities. Our trip home we stopped at a very nice Day's Inn Hotel and Suites and stayed in a King Suite for less than one night would cost us at a value resort even in value seaon. We had a fridge,microwave, and coffee maker. They also included breakfast the next morning. They offered waffles, sausage, biscuits and gravy, cereal, coffee, juice, toast, bagels, donuts and fruit. Also for those that wanted it a free newspaper. Also the rooms at Pop are starting to show their age despite a renovation not that long ago. Our room had a musty smell to it and didn't seem to be kept as clean as in the past. Perhaps the musty smell was from something being spilt or even from the A/C vent or filter needing cleaned. All 6 trips we have stayed at Pop and I started noticing a decline in housekeeping on our trip last Oct. My inlaws were with us and also noticed a difference compared to their past trips. This year was better overall housekeeping wise than last year though.
Day Inn and King Suite probably don't have health plans for their part-time workers either. And they probably don't have the overhead that Disney has in maintaining its properties. Hence the higher price for a room. I'm not saying that they're not making a bigger profit per unit than those other hotels. But when the resort has to pay the restaurants for the dining plans, the average cost per room has to be enough to cover those dining plans, the resort overhead and still generate a profit or else it's not worth doing. When an AllStar room goes for $90/weekday night in Sept. and you can have up to 4 Disney "adults" in that room for that price (2 adults, 2 teens), and then offer them free food for the night as well, you're not going to see much profit.
Another thought- Maybe they are trying a new strategy. Maybe they are trying to fill up the Deluxe and Moderates first since they cost more before offering free dining to the values. Or perhaps they will not offer it to the values this year in the hopes that those that wanted free dining will upgrade and not want to go back to a value. Brilliant marketing if you think about it. Get people to fall in love with a moderate or deluxe so that they pay more for their future vacations.
And all of those people who booked Moderates because there wasn't Free Dining at the Values end up changing their reservations, causing more work for reservations CMs. We all know that that happens whenever new discounts come out.
Or people decide that paying the rack rate at a Moderate (almost double the price of a Value room) is not worth staying onsite and they book their accommodations elsewhere.
Not as brilliant a marketing strategy as you give yourself credit for.