I'm new here and just closed on a 160 point SSR resale. I'll share with you my thought process about how I approached the question.
Originally, I approached Disney directly and was interested in Bay Lake ($120/point at that time). We got their official DVD and promotional material that helped explain their view. Even if you decide on resale, I would request their official information.
I should also note that our decision and research was completed before the recent changes in resale not being able to use
DCL,
ABD, etc... Regardless, this wouldn't change my decision.
The bottom line to all of this is that at the 7 month mark, points are points. I didn't see the value for being almost twice expensive going directly through Disney, so we went re-sale. We're usually not big at travelling during busy periods (Thanksgiving, Xmas, Easter, ...), so we didn't really need the 11 month window to book in. If we ever want to travel during those times, I'll make an 11 month reservation for Saratoga. I may try to change it at 7 months, but would be happy at SSR if it doesn't work out. Other than that, my points at 7 months are going to be the same as if it had been through Disney direct.
When looking at the price of points at the different resorts, along with annual maint costs and length of contract term, we figured that SSR seemed to be the best value. The one real downside of going resale is that it takes time and waiting (about 2 months) to get through this process. It really was painful, but when I'm talking about saving 5 digits, it's worth it to me.
The one message that keeps being repeated on these boards is that you should not buy where you would not be happy at staying. If the unofficial benefits are ever removed further, you could be stuck with staying at only your home property. I don't expect too much of this to change, but with this kind of money you better ask yourself if you're OK with that.
The one red flag that you raised with your comment is that you like to stay at the value resorts. You may not be saving very much money (if at all) by going with DVC. These are premium resorts with lots of room/ammenities. They certainly are nice, but don't come at Value resort pricing.
I would recommend that you poke around on these boards and look at other opinions as well. You'll get a better feel for reality here than talking to Disney salespeople. Good Luck!