) to another I'm not looking to split hairs, but as I posted before it should remain something that gets factored in. Agree that just because you do something in a spreadsheet it doesn't make it right, but it doesn't make it wrong either.
It is my belief that after all the details are considered, the amount of lost opportunity money is greater when booking hotel rooms every year. Therefor, when comparing the cost of DVC to hotels I find it smart to use 0% opportunity cost. Actually, a negative number would be more accurate.
Not necessarily. Likely the best approach is to start with the purchase price, figure a reasonable rate of return and allow for what you'd likely spend yearly as a debit. If you finance, it is more complicated and you should allow for interest paid as well and the calculation on lost earnings but it is a much more complicated calculation that may truly give a different outcome. It seems to me many are making several assumptions that I am not willing to make or will make differently. Some seem to be assuming it's lost money otherwise, I do not buy that. Some are assuming that the rate of rise of dues and rack rates will be the same and I doubt that's accurate as well with dues rising at a higher % than rack rates (or at least easily attainable room rates). Plus the unstated assumption that many seem to have related to financing is that many can't get it together without financing and I question that premise as well.
Many of your points above are taken into account with the calculator Brian recommended. There are many variables, but at some point one must say this is the likely average of what will happen. You could drive yourself looney figuring every possibility.
Yes, you've said this---over and over. And, I've repsonded---over and over---that it is incorrect. The main problem is that the "winning years" are in the future, and a winning dollar ten years from now does not fully offset the loss of a dollar today.
You've said this many times as well. But that doesn't make it right.
Inflation has nothing to do with the conversation. I'm making it a given that rack rates will inflate at the same rate as DVC annual fees. Dean suggests that may not be a 1:1 direct equal, but I believe he would agree it would be reasonably close. I don't believe the disagreement was over the inflation issue anyway...You can easily convince me that a dollar (or points) today is worth the same as a dollar (or points) 30 years from now (ie using some rate > 0% for opportunity cost) by given me $1000 (or 100 pts) to use today, and I'll gladly repay you exactly $1000 (or 100 pts) in 30 years
I don't understand the first part of what your saying, but that's okay as I've put that to bed anyway.
Can't wait. 
A couple of thoughts. I think the questions is first IF you'll break even, then when would you break even. As a side view on Brian's point that a dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar today (not arguable without true and long term deflation), I would suggest that If the break even points is far enough in the future, it is NOT worth the inherent risks involved. The bottom line is that DVC must first make true financial sense for anyone who buys in. If it doesn't make financial sense, buying is truly foolish no matter what other benefits or memories one ends up with due to owning. Obviously there are assumptions one must make to look at the finances, if you have to look at the best case scenario possible to make DVC work for someone, they shouldn't buy, period. I would suggest that if it takes 20 years on paper, you'll never truly get there and actually I'd suggest that if it doesn't EASILY break even in 10-12 years, one should not buy. The other issue is that the inherent value of DVC will start to decline at some point, likely soon for the 2042 resorts, however, this part only matters one way or another if you don't hold until the last day.
i usualy dont get involved in these threads but what the heck. we purchased 400 pts in 1999 for $56 per point. can i stay cheaper, yes. can i ride a bike to work,yes. but i dont. all the great financal wizzards on this thread to tell me how i should spend the money i earn should call uncle sam and tell them how to get out of the trillions we owe and the jobs we lost.i owe nothing.life is simple. dont buy it if you cant pay for it and smile, you may not get another day. these threads get started and its like talking about religion and politics.goodluck!
