I wasn't able to predict what my kids would like. The older two, who were so excited about rollercoasters, didn't enjoy most of them. The youngest, who freaked out on PP and IASW (dark rides after TGMR), loved EE. They all really enjoyed the night time shows, eventually. On the first visit, they had a very hard time leaving the parks for a rest. That resulted in them being passed out by 7-8, while DH and I hung out on the balcony! Rest hasn't been met with such resistance in subsequent visits!
I think the temptation to tour all day is mostly at the beginning of the trip. On day 3, kids are more likely to welcome a break.
They've loved all of the evening shows we've seen. Wishes, Fantasmic, HEA, and even Pandora at night...they're those kind of kids.
I don't want to go without hoppers. I want the flexibility and I've encountered enough unexpected busy-ness or bad weather to punt trying previously scheduled nighttime shows, but realize we can hit some rides or walk around in a nearby park once the weather clears. It's so individual.
MNSSHP. My kids weren't over-the-moon about this event at the time. NOW, they wax nostalgic. The parade was the stand-out for me, and I'm not a parade person. I would never recommend it for rides. It's more of an atmosphere thing, these days. The EMM and DAH tickets seem better suited for knocking out rides, which is why I splurged for the dang tickets in August. Your time frame isn't a good one for low crowds, so I probably wouldn't bother with that if rides are the goal. This is when I used AM EMH. We got a head start and were able to do all the "fun" rides before leaving the park at lunch time.
You won't be able to fit everything in during one visit. That's a given! All you can do is coordinate a vacation that you think your family will enjoy. It may end up having some difficulties, but your kids will talk about it for years. Our first visit was ruled by a tyrannical 5 y/o, and I vowed it would be the LAST Disney vacation we'd take. Not so much, as it turns out. I was 5 when I lived in Orlando, visiting MK and watching the Mickey Mouse Club on tv.
My 5 y/o side is very optimistic!