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IMO, EPCOT. It's so much fun with the parties around the world. Plus, you can see the 12/31 Magic Kingdom fireworks (with slightly less of a crowd) on 12/30! Magic Kingdom does their NYE fireworks both nights. So if you do Magic Kingdom 12/30 and EPCOT 12/31, you get the best of both worlds. We love it.
Magic Kingdom has hit Phase 2 capacity closure most of the past five years, but never higher than that. They don't turn away resort guests or those with ADR's until Phase 4.
I do recommend MK on 12/30 and Epcot on 12/31. It will be packed, but they do a good job of keeping people moving on these days.
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