I just don’t agree with these crowd predictions.

[tehSAC]

Undercover Tourist
Touring Plans
Etc

we arrived at 10:50 AM on Saturday and the Magical Express line was the length of the terminal, and was doubling back on its self about half the length of the terminal. I splurged for a rental cause I wasn’t waiting for that. It was quite the indicator to me that this week was going to be busy.

I’m using TP to do our planning this week and I just don’t agree with crowds being 2,3,&4’s. We spent most of the day yesterday at AK and only completed 3 attractions in 4 1/2 hours. The amount of people to me suggested much higher numbers. We visited HS last evening from 4 to 9. We did Rise with LL and Star Tours. That was it. However we did have dinner at Sci Fi and Savi’s at 8:45. So that wasn’t bad in my opinion.

Today was EPCOT and we accomplished everything we wanted but it was a long day. Wait times were not awful but it felt really busy. Busier than May in 2012 and 2018.

Am I just not used to these “new” crowds or am I right in thinking it’s busier than what these companies are saying?

 

[sjberg79]

I have never found their predicted levels to be correct, pre-pandemic or after. These are mere guidelines for me and if it works out, it works out. I do find their wait times for rides to be somewhat helpful though, so that is useful. Those have been at least 75% accurate for me in the past. But when they tell me a park is going to be 5/10 and then I get there it might feel way worse than that but that's life. I can see if you only go once a year or once every few years how if you are looking for a low volume time how their predictions being off could be very disappointing. No one really has a crystal ball though.

 

[Jennasis]

Yeah TP is off their rocker with these crowd levels. We've been here since Saturday and every park is packed and they claim it's a 3!

 

[Ravensorrow]

Yeah TP is off their rocker with these crowd levels. We've been here since Saturday and every park is packed and they claim it's a 3!

It's not that they are "off their rocker". It's that so many people are now taking their postponed trips or people are pandemic weary and now travelling again. So their algorithm based off of past year patterns is way off. Because this is not a normal year. Add that to the fact that stuff is still closed that is used to mitigate crowd control and it's just chaos.

 

[tehSAC]

Yeah TP is off their rocker with these crowd levels. We've been here since Saturday and every park is packed and they claim it's a 3!

It's not that they are "off their rocker". It's that so many people are now taking their postponed trips or people are pandemic weary and now travelling again. So their algorithm based off of past year patterns is way off. Because this is not a normal year. Add that to the fact that stuff is still closed that is used to mitigate crowd control and it's just chaos.

Glad I’m not the only one who sees this. I’m really worried about our MK day on Wednesday.

 

[gharter]

We saw the same thing for our trip in October. Nearly every park was a 1 until 2 weeks before our trip and most jumped to a 5 or 6. But some still stayed at a 1, and that was not even close.
Agree with using it as a guide, but I don't expect it to be close to reality.

 

[fireman1]

Mk was slammed yesterday. It was bad but we managed to make the best of it.

 

[Katie Dawn]

We are leaving Friday... I have worried that it would be packed and looks like it is! As a PP said, so many (including us) would have taken the trip in 2020 but had to reschedule to 2021. I really hope this trip turns out ok...

 

[DisneyMom_13]

Crowds are crazy high right now. We were there sat/sun and at one point small world had a 60 min wait, that is rare. I am still guessing that by spring, or maybe end of spring break season things will start to drop again, and not just Disney but everywhere. Current economy isn't going to support a lot of travel for many. This is likely the end of the pent up demand wave for all those with extra vacation days to use, already had money tied up in deposits and so on and those that want something after 1-2 years of nothing, but after that will settle back down ride things out for another year or 2.

 

[figmentfinesse]

I predict a sharp drop off in Jan that will slowly rise before peaking again in the spring break season.

 

[SuperJ]

Crowds are crazy high right now. We were there sat/sun and at one point small world had a 60 min wait, that is rare. I am still guessing that by spring, or maybe end of spring break season things will start to drop again, and not just Disney but everywhere. Current economy isn't going to support a lot of travel for many. This is likely the end of the pent up demand wave for all those with extra vacation days to use, already had money tied up in deposits and so on and those that want something after 1-2 years of nothing, but after that will settle back down ride things out for another year or 2.

And on top of that - a lot of the timeshare companies extended points to Dec. 2021 but didn’t extend again so there’s also a lot of people in a “use or lose” situation that decided to just bite the bullet and go rather than lose a full year or two’s worth of points. That’s the situation we’re in and we have a few friends in the same (all different companies).

 

[mom2rtk]

Crowds still aren't behaving the same as pre-pandemic. With no parades, minimal meet and greets and fewer shows, everyone is in line for a ride or out walking around. Even if you don't care about parades, characters and shows, these are massive people eaters and everyone should be hoping for them to fully return soon.

 

[DisneyMom_13]

And on top of that - a lot of the timeshare companies extended points to Dec. 2021 but didn’t extend again so there’s also a lot of people in a “use or lose” situation that decided to just bite the bullet and go rather than lose a full year or two’s worth of points. That’s the situation we’re in and we have a few friends in the same (all different companies).

Good catch, you are right. We are DVC but we rented out a ton of points since we knew we weren't going when the heavy restrictions were in place. But not everyone was able to do that as easily.

Oh plus many have money tied up in resorts/travel spots that they couldn't get back either it was a use now or move it but then often the new rate was higher.

 

[DisneyMom_13]

Crowds still aren't behaving the same as pre-pandemic. with no parades, minimal meet and greets and fewer shows, everyone is in ride for a line or out walking around. Even if you don't care about parades, characters and shows, these are massive people eaters and everyone should be hoping for them to fully return soon.

Agree, and we noticed that the people at Disney are a different group. Far less first visit , and honestly far less children, especially 6/7 and under. Even on sat with how busy it was stroller parking while crowded was nothing like I have seen in the past on a busy sat in MK.

 

[disneydentist]

Remember that Touring Plans "crowd levels" is actually a misnomer. Their scale is based on afternoon wait times, not the number of people in the park. And, the bottom end of their scale isn't really that low anymore. They changed it a few years ago.

 

[persnickity]

Agree, and we noticed that the people at Disney are a different group. Far less first visit , and honestly far less children, especially 6/7 and under. Even on sat with how busy it was stroller parking while crowded was nothing like I have seen in the past on a busy sat in MK.

Oh, I think they all came for Thanksgiving.

(Really, though, I suspect many people are less willing to take even the grade school kids out of school this year after they missed in person learning time last year.)

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

AK was slammed on Sunday. And I say that as someone who has spent Christmas Day at AK - twice. At times it was hard to get through Discovery Island. It took us all day to get the same number of rides accomplished that we would normally get done by 2pm, and that was with Genie+ and not going to shows, as we used to do pre-pandemic with FP+.

 

[Bobb_o]

AK was slammed on Sunday. And I say that as someone who has spent Christmas Day at AK - twice. At times it was hard to get through Discovery Island. It took us all day to get the same number of rides accomplished that we would normally get done by 2pm, and that was with Genie+ and not going to shows, as we used to do pre-pandemic with FP+.

When did you arrive? What did you ride 1st?

 

[ofcabbagesandkings]

When did you arrive? What did you ride 1st?

We arrived at 8 for 8:30 early entry. The crowd to Pandora was huge so we went to Everest first, we could have lapped it 4 times if we wanted to with the wait at 5 minutes for that first half hour, but since we had a LL for Navi we rode once each (rider switch) and then went to Pandora. Then after tapping into Navi, the earliest we could book the Safari was 1PM. So we had to kill time between 9:30AM and 1PM until we could book another at 11:30AM, for Dinosaur, also with a time of 1PM. We did the trails/Rafikis. Dinosaur was down when our window opened, so we rode Safari and had lunch using mobile order. Then we rode FoP with our ILL reservations, then back to Dinosaur which was back up. We got off Dinosaur around 5 and waited 10 minutes for Triceratops Spin, and I used the app to put us on the waitlist for Nomad Lounge, which had an outdoor table waiting for us when we got there. We did a lot of crisscrossing the park, so the congestion at Discovery Island was felt more intensely than it might have been in previous trips. I felt I managed our time as well as I could have, but it definitely felt like work instead of a fun vacation. I was on my phone all day.

 

[kilik64]