Hurricane Watch

[COACHSTING]

Now that Isabel is inching closer, does anyone know what we can expect in terms of contingencies Disney has for their guests? I know it really depends on if/where the hurricane makes landfall. I also know WDW is located in central Florida, away from the coast, but given the strength of this monster, it could spawn tornadoes inland.

We arrive Sunday and stay until Friday. It's a good bet we will be there when Isabel either makes landfall or passes south of the penninsula.

 

[ADIDAD]

Iam also very concerned about the hurricane. It seems to be getting worse. I think it is a category 5 now.... We are leaving for Disney on the 19th. I am so hoping that things will be alright. I am so sure we all need a vacation. Iam trying to stay excited but, it is hard. We are taking my mother with us because, my father died a few months ago. So this is a get away vacation from all the stress. Well I hope that everyone is going to be safe if it does hit. I hate to see anymore sadness. Well to the couple celebrating your 21st anniversary good luck. I hope you have good weather. Also, kudos to 21 years.......

 

[G-gang]

We were their last week with the threat of 2 hurricanes that never amounted to much. Every day and night we would get all kinds of horrible weather reports and always woke up to beautiful sunny and calm days. I'll spread some pixie dust your way. Have a great trip!!!!!

 

[HurricaneWarning]

HurricaneWarning.net



HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

THERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT OR THAT CAN BE ADDED TO THE
STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL AFTER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
BASED ON THE OUSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 140 KNOTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE
STRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

HERE COMES A LITTLE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FOUR MAIN MODELS. THE GFDL
WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU
PICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO
THE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE
FROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE
ABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE
CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
FINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.

NOTE: THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND 5
DAYS. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE HURRICANE COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...HERE COMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ISABEL HAS
BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. MOST IMPORTANTLY...DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN
MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Kimberle]

I think it's still to early to tell.

I live in the NYC metro area, & they are warning us it could hit here pretty hard.

We'll keep praying in stays out to sea.

 

[Selket]

I just think about all the rain some of us who went in August slogged through...can't you guys handle a little rain???

But seriously, there was a hurricane that came in on a path towards WDW a few years ago and from what I remember reading on the boards, they only closed the parks down for a day right? I remember reading also that some of the hotels had to evacuate because they were in low lying areas where flooding could be a problem. I'm not sure if the hotel names were mentioned but I guess if I was planning a trip for in the next week or so I'd be curious to know which hotels had to evacuate...as that would be a real drag. I hope this thing turns out to sea...perhaps if we all blow eastward on the count of 3....

 

[claudia]

Heard several warnings for our area (Long Island) to stock up on water , flashlights and batteries....after that major blackout a few weeks back, news is reporting that the systems may not be that stable to endure a big storm....

 

[beccasmom]

We were at OKW in 2001 from September 8-21. The same week that the attacks took place in NY and Washington, there was a hurricane watch the following weekend. The family staying with us was supposed to leave on Thursday - the day the airlines started flying again - but were bumped. They could not get out of Orlando until Sunday morning because there were too many planes stuck in the north and the winds were too high to bring them south.

Cast members came to our place and gave us each a flashlight and they brought the furniture on our porch inside. The winds did get fairly high and the rains were torrential (blowing sideways..) but the storm did not really cause much of a problem.....the parks were not closed, but I can't imagine it was much fun being there. It was not as big a deal as I thought it might be, but I know they have to prepare just in case. The following day the rain was still around but the winds had died down. They also distributed some sort of a hurricane fact sheet.

 

[FloridaCat]

In simple lay terms, Miami has no idea at this time the track Isabel will take. It will be this weekend or later before they have a handle on it. It depends on what weather system comes along to move it one way or the other. Cruise ships are reporting back that they changing their course in the Atlantic to avoid it.

Even if it misses Florida we will see heavy winds, rain and possible Tornadoes on the coast area. Again depends how close to Florida it passes. We have had them stall 150 miles off shore and pound us with rain and wind.

If it goes into the Carolina’s we will also feel the effects of it due to its size. Orlando media has not given us any type of prepare alert as yet, however many of us are checking our Hurricane kits and picking up a few items before the mob hits the stores.

I live 45 miles from WDW and booked to arrive on the weekend of the 19th. I am planning on being there. Keep an eye on things, have a safe trip and pack your rain gear.

 

[COACHSTING]

We are flying down in 6 hours. Looks like we will be OK in Florida, but our return trip brings us through Dulles on Friday. I tried to re-route us through Chicago for the return but the airline said they had not yet received permission to re-book flights.

Either way, we will at least get a week at Disney and will have to hop-scotch our way back north.

Let's hope Isable decides she likes the water better than land.....