Hurricane Dorian / WDW Theme Parks Discussion

[DVC Jen]

Thanks for saying this. My daughter has been in Tampa less than a year. She only knows her co-workers a little bit. I know she will be grateful I'm there if things get scary. If they don't, we will have fun and we will still get our Disney days, in parks that maybe lightly attended.

I got my flight changed to leave in the morning! I'll be in Tampa tomorrow before lunch. Thanks to you and to everyone that helped me feel better about what I really wanted to do. Now, I'm off to pack!

I have daughters the same age and would be doing the exact same thing. Best of luck to both of you.

 

[monkyby87]

Can anyone who is familiar with Hurricanes (only really experienced Sandy and Irene which was only a tropical storm in my area) explain the different prediction models and which one is the one that Floridians actually care about?

From my personal experience (just me growing up around storms), the European hurricane model tends to be a little more accurate than the US model. They're all still just predictions, and they've all been wrong at various times. But I tend to believe the European tracking to be the most accurate.

But again, it's still so early for Florida with this storm that there isn't one model I would stick to and believe in.

 

[Kimpossible1]

I live 10 minutes from WDW and the local meteorologist said that it could hit Orlando as a category 2. That's no joke so if you can change plans, you should try. I've been here for the last 3 big ones and it's pretty scary. The wind is crazy!

 

[Beckles]

I now want to cancel. Do they refund my dvc points and meal plan? My house flooded in Katrina in Mississippi. A cat 4 is no joke!

According to their official policy they will not do anything yet because there is no hurricane warning. You can not even expect they will issue a hurricane warning until they have at least issued a hurricane watch.

That being said, it's hard to believe that is the actual policy, so I think your best bet is to call (and let us know what you find out!). Someone else reported they were on hold an hour to cancel their (I believe hotel, not DVC) reservation.

 

[Mambo Junkie]

I had friends who were there when one of the hurricanes went through. They had spent 1 day there then when it looked like it was a direct track to Orlando they left. They got a full refund. I’ve been there before when a hurricane was supposed to hit on a Tuesday or Wednesday. We got there on Saturday. It ended up turning and did not affect Disney at all. It was a wonderful week with low crowds. You just never know.

 

[Tink10]

As a little update....

I had tix for MNSSHP on Monday and Animal Kingdom after hours on Tuesday and was given a refund...no questions asked.

Kudos to WDW for taking care of us.

 

[Christopher Maley]

When is the next update?

 

[minniegirl19]

When is the next update?

European came out an hour ago. This has the track more east making landfall near Miami and hitting the coast all the way up. Also has it slower with landfall on Tuesday and up near here Wednesday into Thursday. This model three EVERYONE for a loop. I thought the trends were starting to show then this happened. Don’t think we will know much for at least another day. Could pull a Matthew too and not make landfall here just come close and then go up to Georgia and the Carolinas. We really don’t know right now

 

[LSUmiss]

When is the next update?

I thought 2pm.

 

[LSUmiss]

From my personal experience (just me growing up around storms), the European hurricane model tends to be a little more accurate than the US model. They're all still just predictions, and they've all been wrong at various times. But I tend to believe the European tracking to be the most accurate.

But again, it's still so early for Florida with this storm that there isn't one model I would stick to and believe in.

Also, it gets more accurate when models start to line up. Once that happens, it's less likely it'll have a huge change in forecast. But, that's just for the path. Intensity is the least reliable forecast.

 

[MGMmjl]

I thought 2pm.

The next NHC update will be at 5 pm. They are 6 hours apart (5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm) when there are no watches and warnings in effect. The advisories are 3 hours apart once watches/warnings are issued.

 

[GADisneyDad14]

I want to thank whoever posted about Mike's Weather Page and Denis Phillips / ABC Tampa. Both provide very interesting content and discussion on the various models - stuff you can't get on the Weather Channel and nightly news blurbs.

While no laughing matter, the lack of certainty when it comes to predicting the path of these storms is really quite fascinating.

These are on Post #2, but copied here too:

Mike’s Weather Page - https://spaghettimodels.com/

Denis Phillips / ABC Action News Tampa - https://twitter.com/DenisPhillips28

Have other good weather resources? Let me know and I'll add them to Post 2.

 

[Ciao Mickey]

I haven't said much today, because I am having my usual Katrina anxiety and I don't want to be accused of being dramatic.

My dear friend from Chalmette currently lives in Delray Beach and I am worried sick about him right now.

I have a home and family in Boca Raton, which is next to Delray, and he will be fine as long as he doesn’t go out to play in the storm (I’m not kidding, you would not believe how many stupid people that go out in storms).

I just got off the phone with my sister and she said the stores are all well stocked with water, food and drink.

People in South Florida know the drill and are much better equipped to handle a tropical storm or hurricane than the Orlando area (due to the way homes are built).

 

[Beckles]

When is the next update?

National Hurricane Center updates are every three hours, next one is 5PM Orlando time (they are 2, 5, 8, and 11, AM and PM).

 

[puggymom]

I just came from guest services in MK and switched my MNSSHP and dessert party from Monday to tomorrow. They were very accommodating

 

[Cluelyss]

Scheduled to arrive on Saturday and depart Tuesday. Just got calls that the fireworks cruise we had scheduled for Sunday night and horseback riding Monday morning were both cancelled. Strongly considering cancelling the entire trip now

 

[e_yerger]

hmm - we have a keys to the kingdom tour booked for saturday morning at 8:30am; think we're okay?

 

[Cluelyss]

hmm - we have a keys to the kingdom tour booked for saturday morning at 8:30am; think we're okay?

Saturday morning is probably fine. Mine were Sunday night / Monday morning.

 

[Brett Wyman]

hmm - we have a keys to the kingdom tour booked for saturday morning at 8:30am; think we're okay?

Based on current landfall of Miami Sunday night, Id think so. But this forecast just keeps changing.

 

[wendlle]

We're flying in on Tuesday at 6pm
I can only change my flight to Monday, do you think I should do this? I know this storm has slowed down so maybe Monday could still be an option?
We're coming from Australia and I can't change my International flight only my domestic one which means I have to choose between Monday and Tuesday.
I'd rather be stuck in a room at Universal than stuck at LAX