How much for BLT resale?

[bumbershoot]

I get it, I just wonder if it's worth waiting for this bubble to burst. It's gotta give sometime.

Why is it necessarily a bubble?

Gf and poly are expensive and they aren't going to decrease any time soon. As someone else said the rooms at poly aren't what some hoped. Of the three on the monorail, you can get bay lake cheaper than the others, even though it's higher than it was.

Of course I'm looking at it from the other side, where I'm strongly considering selling at this point. Still haven't stayed at blt and I could get a bunch of resale OKW points to replace it...

 

[Savagekids]

Why is it necessarily a bubble?

Gf and poly are expensive and they aren't going to decrease any time soon. As someone else said the rooms at poly aren't what some hoped. Of the three on the monorail, you can get bay lake cheaper than the others, even though it's higher than it was.

Of course I'm looking at it from the other side, where I'm strongly considering selling at this point. Still haven't stayed at blt and I could get a bunch of resale OKW points to replace it...

I assume it's a bubble because points were selling the $90s when I first started looking. And because as time goes on, there are fewer years left on the lease. I'm also thinking (hoping) that come the end of the year when dues are due sellers will be more willing to negotiate. The only certainty is that no one knows the future.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Eventually the prices will have to go down but I'd doubt it will be anytime soon barring any major changes or another financial crisis. As long as the prices make sense vs paying cash to stay onsite, and Disney continues to escalate direct costs it's going to price itself to fit in that niche. Both onsite cash and direct prices are rising so resale can too and still make sense for those that want to stay onsite every 1-2 years. Back when I bought there were many singing the tune that resale will be dropping - it's higher now than back then.

 

[bumbershoot]

KAT, you're little Corgi-butt GIF nearly hypnotized me. Pondering bubbles and real estate and my understanding of things, and suddenly realized I'd been staring at it for ages.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

KAT, you're little Corgi-butt GIF nearly hypnotized me. Pondering bubbles and real estate and my understanding of things, and suddenly realized I'd been staring at it for ages.

haha - Corgi's are mesmerizing whether a GIF or real!

 

[dsnydaddy]

I look at BLT this way, if you want to be on the Monorail and you don't want to spend a fortune or just stay in a studio then BLT is your only choice. GFV runs pretty high and you might as well buy from Disney as you won't see a huge discount on the resale right now. You'll also need to buy a pretty good amount of point if you are buying at GFV because the studios there are hard to get. PV is all studios AND will cost you a lot per point. Good thing there is that the minimum that you need to buy there to stay a week will be less than GFV. Kinda makes me wish I'd have bought BLT when it was had at $90

 

[Minniesgal]

I get it, I just wonder if it's worth waiting for this bubble to burst. It's gotta give sometime.

I actually don't think its a bubble. BLT is the only reasonable option on the monorail now. VGF is very small and sold out, Disney are not taking wait lists and very few resales come along. Poly is very disappointing with only studios and worse they made them interconnecting without making it a booking category. Only reasonable monorail resort for those wanting villas is BLT.

If i were a mouse woman i'd be building that second tower

 

[DVCcurious]

There is a premium to be paid for being on the monorail. And many people will only buy at a DVC on the monorail.

I was waiting for PVB but after I saw the GFV point chart I immediately bought resale BLT for $105. I figured that PVB would also have a really high point requirement and PVB just wouldn't make sense vs BLT's lower point requirement. I imagine that after PVB's point chart was released a lot of people agreed with me and some who were waiting for PVB bought BLT resale.

Standard view Studio in Adventure season
BLT 102
PVB 118
GFV 125

If GFV and Poly run you $150 direct per point the buy-in cost is:
PVB 118 X 150 = 17,700
GFV 125 X 150 = 18,750

If BLT runs you $125 resale that's:
102 X 125 = 12,750

If you factor in the dues you have to pay dues on 20% more points if you own at GFV or Poly.

Even at $125 BLT is 30% cheaper than Poly and GFV. The question is: how many people who wanted to be on the monorail were waiting for GFV and Polynesian and once they see the point requirement they decided to buy BLT? I can't be the only one.

If you want to be on the monorail you have three choices, and for people who want the best value in a monorail DVC Bay Lake Tower wins hands down pretty much until it gets to like $140 per point.

So I don't expect the resale cost to drop any time soon. The per point resale cost in 2013 is irrelevant. What's relevant to informed buyers of BLT is: what is the per point cost of the alternatives (PVB and GFV), what is the cost of rack rate, what is the cost to rent points, and what is the number of points needed for a given room type and a given season that buyer travels in. If you factor all those in $125 is still a "good deal". The days of $90 BLT and $55 BWV are over. You have to deal with today's reality. Or you can wait for the next Great Recession when prices will drop back down to 2009 levels.

I just checked a rental store and BLT rents at $16 per point. Dues are $5 per point. So the $11 per point difference gives you a break even of about 11 years (11 X 11 = 121). In 2012-2013 when BLT was $90 per point you could rent points from this same store for $12.50 per point (I know this, because I did it). Dues were about $4.50. So the difference was $8. An $8 difference and a $90 per point resale cost gives you a....11 year break even. So judging by this metric (break even years vs renting) the cost to buy BLT resale hasn't changed at all since 2013.

There is no reason to expect BLT resale prices to drop. The break even years vs renting are the same as they were 3 years ago. I'm sure the break even years vs paying rack rate is the same (I'm sure rack rates have gone up 30% over the past 3 years). BLT is a better value than GFV and Poly (on a pure $$ cost). Anyone who wants the best deal on a monorail resort will buy BLT.

 

[dsnydaddy]

Good Sound Math! Almost makes me wish I had spent the $20 pp for BLT! Almost.

 

[Gryhndmom]

I have been stalking BLT re-sales since October 2014. Now that I've found a contract that want and have DH on board, they asking prices are redicilous and the sellers are not willing to negotiate. I don't get it. Sales this year, from I can tell by searching the titles and this board have been in $100-$110 range so I won't offer more than that. The sellers are looking for $120 - $135. They just seem greedy to me because it's unlikely that they paid more than $130. I don't get it.

I'll just keep waiting for a good match to come along.

DH and I own BLT and are looking to add on. We paid 120 a pt when we bought in 2012(direct) and are looking at buying additional points through resale. Found a 100 pt, dec use year and made an offer for 115.00 a pt. Seller turned it down with no counter. don't want to buy direct since they are now asking 170.00 a pt !

 

[suebeelin]

DH and I own BLT and are looking to add on. We paid 120 a pt when we bought in 2012(direct) and are looking at buying additional points through resale. Found a 100 pt, dec use year and made an offer for 115.00 a pt. Seller turned it down with no counter. don't want to buy direct since they are now asking 170.00 a pt !

Keep offering. Someone wiil bite

 

[Gryhndmom]

Keep offering. Someone wiil bite

That's what I figure....since my bday is in a couple of weeks it would make a nice present to have another 100 points