How is FP+ making other lines longer?

[lazer]

No. Actually it is not "this". If you go to Touring Plans and look at the historical data (not theory) concerning wait times, you will find that rides that used FP- and now use FP+ may have very comparable wait times in relation to 2014. But if you look at rides that did not use FP- but now utilize FP+, the wait times have increased significantly. This cannot be attributed to an overall growth in attendance, (which no data supports). If crowd growth were the answer, then the rising tide would lift all boats. But the exponential line growth at IASW, HM, POTC and Spaceship Earth tell a different story.

Actually, I said nothing about more people being in the parks. I said ride times. And, my data...my experience and pictures and note taking are what I'm going by. And, It doesn't matter what data you're pointing me to, I was in the parks every fall those years (including last year) and the lines were longer than previous years. The lines were longer for me...when I was there. That's all I was saying.

 

[JimmyV]

I do like this line of thought, and have been mulling over the chance that overall demand may actually be UP because more people have more discretionary time, and thus are opting to ride an extra ride. I do believe there is some choice here for most guests, along the lines of...

"I used to wait for 5 rides a day. Now that I can get on 3 pretty fast, I'm willing to wait for a 6th ride" thus you have higher consumption of riding by most guests.

However we also have to consider the commando that used to go on 12 rides a day who now says "this sucks, I used to be able to get on 12, now because typical guests are using FP+, I only get on 8".

So which effect is greater? I would assert they are leading to more guests wanting to ride a little more, plus commandos not wanting to ride less, (albeit being forced to) thus the queues could be seeing an overall increase in demand due to more people wanting to ride a little more.

I'm kind of leaning that way. But there's so much subjectivity in this line it's hard to prove.

This indeed is the great unkown. We sort of have an idea on how FP+ is impacting the commando--negatively. And we leap to the conclusion that FP+ is helping the casual guest. And it might. But this requires far more anecdotal reporting. If we assume, as we must, that SB lines at rides like HM, IASW and POTC are longer now, and the casual guest used to ride those rides and still intends to ride them in the future, (without a FP+), we start with the premise that as to those three rides they will be spending more time in line, thus cutting down on the discretionary time that you assume they will gain to ride additional rides. So the question becomes, do they make up for this lost time by using FP+ at three major attractions like the Mountains. We just don't know. There is a tendency to assume that "casual guest" (or non-commandos) were ignorant and inefficient. But what of the guest who was casual, didn't use FP-, but always arrived early in the day because they were early risers. Also, assume that as causal guests, they were not repeat riders. So they arrived early, understood the basics of efficiency, and rode SM, BTMRR and Splash in succession from 9:00-10:00 and then bounced around the park at their leisure. When they got to HM, POTC and IASM, they encountered modest waits. So their total time in line for these 6 rides was minimal.

Now, this causal guest is told to use FP+, so they do. They book their FPs for the Mountains and arrive at the park early and go straight to ETWB or some other crowded attraction that is best visited early. They zip through their three FP attractions whenever their return time is, but their wait differential isn't all that great. Perhaps it isn't any shorter at all if the FP returns for those rides is around 15-20 minutes each. They may not be doing any better now than they did before. But now, when they go to HM, POTC and IASW, they are confronted with 45-60 minute waits that they never encountered before. At the end of the day, they may have actually lost discretionary time. Again, we tend to assume that the casual guest waited 75+ minutes each for the attractions that they are now FP-ing, and that they are gaining 60 minutes per ride of new-found time. I am sure that this is true for some people, but certainly not all. The math boils down to this: If a guest in the past waited an aggregate of 40 minutes for HM, POTC and IASM collectively, and now waits 150 minutes for those three rides collectively, their three FP+ have to save them 151 minutes over prior wait times in order to come out ahead. Is it possible for this to happen? Sure. For any guest who jumped into SB lines for major attractions in the middle of the day without FPs. But for casual guests who had any sense of efficiency and who didn't do that, then gaining 151 minutes might be hard to pull off.

 

[JimmyV]

Actually, I said nothing about more people being in the parks. I said ride times.

Here is the statement to which you replied "This":

Everything is theory and speculation. I think it is just the fact that more people are in the parks than in a long time.

Forgive me for thinking that you were agreeing with a statement that the problem was that there were more people in the parks, but I think you would have to concede that my confusion was understandable.

 

[lazer]

Here is the statement to which you replied "This": Forgive me for thinking that you were agreeing with a statement that the problem was that there were more people in the parks, but I think you would have to concede that my confusion was understandable.

Dude, you're 100% right in your confusion (as you already know). Actually, my brain is just fried and I made no sense in my original post, but it made sense to me when I hit send. Must sleep more.

We tested fp+ last September and loved it. Tested being the key word. Not sure how this fall will go, all I do know is I will be really disappointed (and I'm preparing myself for that) of we spend a lot of time in lines and can't ride our favorites multiple times in a 8 day period.

 

[Gumbo4x4]

I assume you that Disney has not found any way to increase or decrease the "number of riders per hour". If the SB lines are longer it means one of two things (or likely a combination of both).

1. The crowds are actually bigger.
2. You have to wait in line because more people are utilizing the FP+ system.

I'm going with #1. Disney has been on an advertising blitz for a couple of years and we all know crowds are up. Even if more people are using FP+ than used FP-, they're using it on fewer rides per day. In theory, this would increase the standby lines, but there would be a corresponding decrease in the FP line. It should wash out. The reason it doesn't wash IMO is that crowds are simply bigger than they've ever been in recent memory.

 

[JimmyV]

I'm going with #1. Disney has been on an advertising blitz for a couple of years and we all know crowds are up.

Last year, on March 26, (the corresponding Tuesday to the week we are currently in), Touring Plans predicted a crowd level of 10, and reported an observed crowd level of 10. On that day, at 3:00, the wait at POTC was reported to be 55 minutes. This year, on March 25, (the same Tuesday), the crowd level was reported to be a 10 and the wait at POTC at 3:00 was reported to be 95 minutes. Increased crowds could account for some of that. But it is far more likely that the introduction of FP to an attraction that did not have it before is a bigger factor.

 

[clsteve]

There are two primary reasons why this causes longer lines, but not necessarily longer "average waits"

1) people really may be riding more rides, which makes each person count for more "riders" as you say, you knock off 3 attractions with no wait, and then still spend your normal 6 hours in the park, ... or the spacing of your FP+s makes you hang around the park longer than you would ... you become more "riders" than you were before, increasing demand.

Though again, I think scenario 1 is much more likely.

This is very likely happening. Going back to the patent, it is a stated goal for the system:

".....For instance, using the embodiment of FIG. 3 as an example, for a guest visiting one theme park on a single day visit, retrieving the scheduling windows in accordance with 270 may comprise the scheduling element 116 causing the schedule engine 124 to lengthen the windows of time between the selected experiences 18, spreading the experiences 18 out over the entire day."

It's probably safe to assume that a large percentage of first-timers/casuals, aren't going to spend a lot of time with MDE making significant changes to what they're offered (that's what Disney hopes). In the past, where they might leave at 3pm when it's crowded, Disney is betting they'll stick around for that 5pm or 6pm Splash, 7DMT, or SM FP reservation.

So, with guests staying longer, what are they going to do but ride more rides, or shop, or eat. So, if this thing works the way they hope, the Parks (and lines) will seem longer and more crowded with even the same attendance figures as previously.

 

[mom2rtk]

Last year, on March 26, (the corresponding Tuesday to the week we are currently in), Touring Plans predicted a crowd level of 10, and reported an observed crowd level of 10. On that day, at 3:00, the wait at POTC was reported to be 55 minutes. This year, on March 25, (the same Tuesday), the crowd level was reported to be a 10 and the wait at POTC at 3:00 was reported to be 95 minutes. Increased crowds could account for some of that. But it is far more likely that the introduction of FP to an attraction that did not have it before is a bigger factor.

Yep. If you hear horsebeats, look for horses. Not zebras.

Sometimes it really is the most obvious answer.

 

[TDC Nala]

Have noticed that at times (especially at shows) they actually stop the standby line for awhile to WAIT for fastpass users to arrive - there can be nobody in the fastpass line, and they still stop the line entirely in case Fastpass holders show up.

The problem with Pirates and HM is that there were previously two lines for guests to use. Pirates had two full queues and you could select either one. If you don't have a fastpass you are limited to only one. If there are no fastpass riders waiting, then the boats servicing the fastpass queue go out completely empty, or with very few passengers. This is the biggest waste of capacity resulting from FP+ that i know about.

HM, you could choose to walk through the graveyard or get right on the ride. Now, if you don't have a fastpass, you get the graveyard. You get about to the end of the waiting area before you branch off into the graveyard, but you still have to go through it unless you get FP. Boarding isn't until later, so there's no vehicles going out empty or sparsely populated like you get at Pirates.

The average, casual guest or first timer may perceive this new system as the best thing ever because they get to choose their attraction and time, but the reality is that wait times are up because of this new system.

Can you say that Disney didn't know there would be longer waits? What's with the interactive queues then? Why give guests things to do and see in queue lines if you don't realize that more guests are going to be waiting in them? I think this system is doing exactly what WDW expected it to do, and if that's the case, calls for it to be scrapped are going to fall on deaf ears.

 

[Sco]

I have gone to a park once or twice a week for the last year. Lines are longer now, not because of increased attendance, but from the FP+, and only if you have hard data from Disney will my mind change. Not just stand by but FP lines are longer as well, negating the benefits... and FP is on more rides than before.

The theory that more people are getting on more rides and that is "fairer" seems silly. That is like saying I saved a lot of money by buying stuff on sale. In both cases you end up with something you didn't want or need until someone gave you a deal and your life really didn't change because of it.

As some have suggested, if Disney increases the number of FP+ you get once you are in the park, it will then be a set time stand by line rather than any FP and make stand by almost unusable. This is great for the company but not so good for the guests. That is fine with Disney because more people are going than ever before. They don't need to expand or worry about not being able to control the crowds, and make just as much money or more, with less work.

 

[gwmort]

ok, I just read the whole thread.

If I understand correctly there appears to be a general consensus that individual ride waits are longer because more people are able to go on more rides each day.

SO they are going faster thru three rides and waiting longer in others, but the speed gained in the three was enough to get them through at least one other whole ride than they used to, even with the longer SB lines.

It seems to me like the system then is letting more people do more riding which would appear to be good. If most people are doing more in a day than they used to isn't that a good thing? Why does this phenomenon show a problem with fp+?

I understand some people end up doing less, but that would appear to be a small (but vocal) minority.

 

[mom2rtk]

I understand some people end up doing less, but that would appear to be a small (but vocal) minority.

Then it's a huge win for Disney. And nothing needs to change.

Only time will tell.

 

[mellyf]

Last year, on March 26, (the corresponding Tuesday to the week we are currently in), Touring Plans predicted a crowd level of 10, and reported an observed crowd level of 10. On that day, at 3:00, the wait at POTC was reported to be 55 minutes. This year, on March 25, (the same Tuesday), the crowd level was reported to be a 10 and the wait at POTC at 3:00 was reported to be 95 minutes. Increased crowds could account for some of that. But it is far more likely that the introduction of FP to an attraction that did not have it before is a bigger factor.

Been following this thread with a lot of interest. Also, last year Easter was on March 31st, so the week before was Easter week, as opposed to *just* spring break. Overall, isn't Easter week usually much more crowded than spring break? (Which is one of the reasons I'm happy that my school district has taken to having spring break the last full week in March, rather than always aligned with Easter.) So I guess what I'm saying is, last year, this same week in March seems like it should have been much busier since it was the week leading up to Easter.

 

[JimmyV]

Can you say that Disney didn't know there would be longer waits? What's with the interactive queues then? Why give guests things to do and see in queue lines if you don't realize that more guests are going to be waiting in them? I think this system is doing exactly what WDW expected it to do, and if that's the case, calls for it to be scrapped are going to fall on deaf ears.

Great, great post, and I want to focus only on this last part, (but thank you for providing the "physics" behind why certain lines are necessarily longer and not merely imagined to be longer).

As to this last point, again, we go back to the money making feature. Imagine that there was a "corporate beauty contest" where three outside vendors made a presentation to Disney on a system that they wanted to sell and install at WDW.

Presentation #1:
Ladies and gentleman, we will sell you this system for $1.5B and it promises to make the touring experience faster, leaner and more efficient for your guests. They will be able to do more in less time, and the average guest will be able to do everything in your parks in an average of 4.25 days. They will love their new-found speed and efficiency, leaving them more time to enjoy the other offerings of Central Florida.

Presentation #2:
Ladies and gentleman, we will sell you this system for $1.5B and it promises to modernize the current experience, but the speed and efficiency with which guest tour the parks won't change in any material respect. The average guest will still require 5.25 days to do and see everything here, but they will have a lot of fun using the interactive system of bells and whistles. Apps are our future, and you need an app, even though overall efficiency won't change.

Presentation #3.
Ladies and gentleman, we will sell you this system for $1.5B and it promises to give the apprearance of modernity and that "wow" factor that kids these days love. And, it will cause guests to slow down and smell the roses and tour at a more leisurely pace, gaining a greater enjoyment for the little things at WDW that are so often overlooked. You will be able to market this to people promising them that they can enjoy a 90 minute character breakfast at the Polynesian, but still get to DHS with a pre-booked reservation to do the most popular attractions with no wait. The trade-off, however, to this more leisurely touring style is that it will take guests 6.5 days to do and see everything that they used to do and see in 5.25. But we believe that this will only enhance your bottom line as they spend more days on your property and less at other Central Florida attractions.

So you are the head of park operations and you are going to spend $1.5B. Are you going to buy the system that will speed the guests up, keep them the same, or slow them down? Yes, as TDC Nala says, Disney knows exactly what it is doing, and anticipated a growth in wait times. This keeps you coming back. Day after day.

 

[JimmyV]

Been following this thread with a lot of interest. Also, last year Easter was on March 31st, so the week before was Easter week, as opposed to *just* spring break. Overall, isn't Easter week usually much more crowded than spring break? (Which is one of the reasons I'm happy that my school district has taken to having spring break the last full week in March, rather than always aligned with Easter.) So I guess what I'm saying is, last year, this same week in March seems like it should have been much busier since it was the week leading up to Easter.

Great point. I should have chosen a different week which likely would have shown an even more stark contrast. March 24-30 of last year should have been more crowded and had longer lines than March 23-29 of this year.

 

[MrInfinity]

That is my point. People are going on more rides now. That doesn't benefit commandos or the casual visitor. It's just making lines longer for everyone.

Yet this is BECAUSE that casual rider is choosing to ride an extra ride. So clearly it is benefitting someone. It's benefitting those casual visitors who are now getting to ride 6 rides in the time they used to ride 5.

Before: Casual visitor rides 5 rides, waiting 1 hour for each. Total 5 hours.
Now: The same 5 rides are done in 20 min (x3) and 75 min (x2). Total 3.5 hours.

So, this guest who used to spend most of his day waiting for 5 rides can now knock the same number out in 1.5 hours less. Which means he can pick up a 6th ride at 75 min and still have 15 min to buy an extra snack. <-- so even tho the lines were longer (75 min vs 60 min) the casual guest accomplishes more because he is using 3 FP+.

Disney made more money, he rode an extra ride in less time than he used to.

Clearly the casual guest *is* benefitting from FP+.

If Shaden's theory is correct, then indeed the casual visitors are getting on more than they used to -- and this amounts to the majority of WDW visitors.

 

[MrInfinity]

This indeed is the great unkown. We sort of have an idea on how FP+ is impacting the commando--negatively. And we leap to the conclusion that FP+ is helping the casual guest. And it might. But this requires far more anecdotal reporting. If we assume, as we must, that SB lines at rides like HM, IASW and POTC are longer now, and the casual guest used to ride those rides and still intends to ride them in the future, (without a FP+), we start with the premise that as to those three rides they will be spending more time in line, thus cutting down on the discretionary time that you assume they will gain to ride additional rides. So the question becomes, do they make up for this lost time by using FP+ at three major attractions like the Mountains. We just don't know. There is a tendency to assume that "casual guest" (or non-commandos) were ignorant and inefficient. But what of the guest who was casual, didn't use FP-, but always arrived early in the day because they were early risers. Also, assume that as causal guests, they were not repeat riders. So they arrived early, understood the basics of efficiency, and rode SM, BTMRR and Splash in succession from 9:00-10:00 and then bounced around the park at their leisure. When they got to HM, POTC and IASM, they encountered modest waits. So their total time in line for these 6 rides was minimal.

Now, this causal guest is told to use FP+, so they do. They book their FPs for the Mountains and arrive at the park early and go straight to ETWB or some other crowded attraction that is best visited early. They zip through their three FP attractions whenever their return time is, but their wait differential isn't all that great. Perhaps it isn't any shorter at all if the FP returns for those rides is around 15-20 minutes each. They may not be doing any better now than they did before. But now, when they go to HM, POTC and IASW, they are confronted with 45-60 minute waits that they never encountered before. At the end of the day, they may have actually lost discretionary time. Again, we tend to assume that the casual guest waited 75+ minutes each for the attractions that they are now FP-ing, and that they are gaining 60 minutes per ride of new-found time. I am sure that this is true for some people, but certainly not all. The math boils down to this: If a guest in the past waited an aggregate of 40 minutes for HM, POTC and IASM collectively, and now waits 150 minutes for those three rides collectively, their three FP+ have to save them 151 minutes over prior wait times in order to come out ahead. Is it possible for this to happen? Sure. For any guest who jumped into SB lines for major attractions in the middle of the day without FPs. But for casual guests who had any sense of efficiency and who didn't do that, then gaining 151 minutes might be hard to pull off.

I think you're asserting the casual guest puts more thought into these concepts than you and I. While certainly I would follow these practices, most guests did not. *that* is why it is beneficial for you and I to follow these practices. If *most* guests did so, we would not see any reason to do so and we'd be trying to figure out what to do instead.

So since we (you and I) did find the mornings to be great touring times, I think we can conclude most guests were content to get to the park by 10-11am.

Thus, I do think most guests will on average make up the time lost in longer lines by their 3 FP+'s.

And then it comes down to how many rides you ride.

If before the average standby wait was 60 min.
And now, the fast-pass wait is 30 min but the standby wait is 80 min,

Then...
If you rode 3 rides in a day, you are 90 min better off (60x3-30x3).
If you rode 5 rides in a day, you are 50 min better off (60x5-30x3-80x2).
If you rode 7 rides in a day, you are 10 min worse off (60x7-30x3-80x4).
And, it would get progressively worse from there.

Since I think most guests did not ride 8+ rides per day, nor do they desire to do so, most guests are better off getting on 3 fast and riding a few slow (now) than riding all a little less slow (then).

I'd say most guests fall in the 5-6 rides per day group. Which is 3 fast passed and 3 standby.

 

[MrInfinity]

Last year, on March 26, (the corresponding Tuesday to the week we are currently in), Touring Plans predicted a crowd level of 10, and reported an observed crowd level of 10. On that day, at 3:00, the wait at POTC was reported to be 55 minutes. This year, on March 25, (the same Tuesday), the crowd level was reported to be a 10 and the wait at POTC at 3:00 was reported to be 95 minutes. Increased crowds could account for some of that. But it is far more likely that the introduction of FP to an attraction that did not have it before is a bigger factor.

Right, but last year everyone had to wait standby. Average wait: 55 min.

Now, most ppl are not waiting standby. Those that do, yes, have to wait 95 min.

But for everyone waiting 95 min, there are 2 guests (?) riding via FP+ and getting on in 20 min.

(20+20+95)/3 = 45 min average wait.

You cannot conclude that because the standby line was 55 and now it's 95 that people are waiting longer. Just some are waiting longer and others are skipping right by.

The only way to actually calculate the real wait time would be to know the standby wait time, the fastpass wait time, and the % of riders that the ride takes FP vs Standby.

 

[JimmyV]

I think you're asserting the casual guest puts more thought into these concepts than you and I. While certainly I would follow these practices, most guests did not.

This is what I submit we just don't know. (I am not saying you are wrong. But I am not saying that I am either). I don't think it is fair to extrapolate the fact that the 50% of guests who didn't use FP- used no touring strategy at all. There has to be some percentage of these guests who didn't use FP- because they didn't think they needed to because their early morning touring strategy negated the need to do so. There also has to be some percentage of guests who didn't use FP- but simply stumbled upon the early morning touring strategy or came to it organically. But your assumption (and that of many others) is that the people who did not use FP- were compete ignoramuses with no strategy whatsoever and who wandered around the park aimlessly and that those people have been thrown a life preserver. There are no doubt some of them. But certainly not all.

The bottom line is that Disney has given us statistics on FP usage that we can do with what we want. It has not given us any statistics to support what I have bolded above. We really have no way of knowing how most people toured, and hence, have no way of knowing if most people are gaining or losing discretionary time.

 

[JimmyV]

Right, but last year everyone had to wait standby. Average wait: 55 min.

Now, most ppl are not waiting standby. Those that do, yes, have to wait 95 min.

But for everyone waiting 95 min, there are 2 guests (?) riding via FP+ and getting on in 20 min.

(20+20+95)/3 = 45 min average wait.

You cannot conclude that because the standby line was 55 and now it's 95 that people are waiting longer. Just some are waiting longer and others are skipping right by.

The only way to actually calculate the real wait time would be to know the standby wait time, the fastpass wait time, and the % of riders that the ride takes FP vs Standby.

I get all of that. Really, I do. But I am starting with an assumption that a typical visitor who goes to the MK one or two days during their vacation does not pull a FP for POTC. So in 2013 they rode SB, and in 2014 they rode SB. So apples to apples, this SB rider waited longer. They don't care if others are waiting less. They only care about their own experience. In reality, the only people pulling FPs for IASM, HM and POTC are probably people who are visiting the MK for 3 or 4 days over a lengthy trip. Those are the people cutting off the SB line made up of people who are only there for one or two days who do not pull FPs for these rides because they are using them for the Mountains and some meet and greets. And to be honest, if one goes to the MK for 3 or 4 days, maybe one of those days should be spent doing secondary attractions at RD so that they are walk on, negating the need to pull FPs for them. But that is a personal choice, so it isn't worth going there. Simply put, no one (except perhaps you), gets off a ride and says: "Wow. I just waited 95 minutes for that ride and I used to only wait 15. But that's OK. Many people got to ride it with no wait at all, so we're all even." That statement is true, but it is also irrelevant to the typical guest.