How Exact are the Expected Crowds on "BestDays" Online Chart?

[Reb0507]

I have to reschedule my March 10-13 trip to Disney. After reviewing the crowds for May on www.touringplans.com/bestdays.htm I saw that the crowd levels are at a 3 pretty much the whole month except Memorial Day Weekend.

So is it my assumption that even with the Celebration on May 5th that the crowds will still be a 3?

How exact are the expected crowd ranges on this site? Has anyone gone based and the crowd level displayed on the list and when you get there the parks have been packed?

I am looking at a quick weekend trip either April 28-May 1 or May 5 - May 8. Both weekends show the crowd level at 3.

Help please. Which weekend would you go and do you really trust the scale? I want to trust it but I am just worried because I see posts about people going at times when the crowds are supposed to be reasonable/low and they come back shocked that the parks are packed. Sorry this is so long. Thanks,

Rebecca

 

[jlaspoq]

Well, it certainly would seem that the opening on May 5 would cause some crowds. I would probably consider going earlier. Most of the events will probably be in soft openings, don't you think? The only time I went in early May was great, but there was no event going on at that time. Have fun!

 

[lentesta]

Hi Rebecca,

Thanks for checking out the site. May should still be relatively uncrowded, as both Easter and spring break will have passed, and summer break for schools will not yet have started. Most families, I suspect, would prefer to take their vacations at those times, when kids are out of school. So I think you'll be fine.

Hope this helps. Thanks again for checking out the site.

Sincerely,

Len Testa

 

[MrsJ Henry]

I know we are sure hoping it is on target since we are going the last week in April and the crowd levels are 3 almost the whole time we are going to be there. I also checked and there are still many rooms left that week on site.(except for YC/BC) I guess time will tell.

 

[SleepingUgly]

FWIW (and I hope I'm not jinxing myself for saying this), but I've changed resorts three times for our trip in mid-May (week before Memorial Day), and each time I've called, I've had no problem getting the resort I requested. One CM also told me that based on how quickly the results for my resort request came back on her computer, she could tell that it was going to be fairly light crowds for that week. However, she did note that Memorial Day weekend/week was filling up pretty quickly, but the couple of weeks before that were still fairly light. That was a couple of weeks ago that I heard this, so let's hope it stays fairly true!!!

Linda

 

[LBS]

I personally wonder if the guide is accurate. We went in 2004 the week before Memorial Day. It was hands down the most crowded we have ever seen. We then went the first week of February this year and it was extremely light crowds. These two times are listed at the same basic crowd level but that is not my experience at all. So I have to wonder about the accuracy.

 

[Sandyincanada]

We just got got back. We chose Feb 11th to go to MGM because it was suppose to be a 3 according to the new charts but it was packed!! Not even close to a 3 so I think you have to take these with a grain of salt. I think there were alot of conventions and tons of cheerleaders that maybe weren't accounted for and of course, the new hours.

 

[LisaBi]

I wondering too. The guide predicts early December as lower crowds than mid to late September. But with all the Christmas stuff and lack of hurricanes, I'd think early December would be more crowded.

LisaB

 

[molenda]

May 5th and 8th are both listed as 4s, I guess because of Mothers day and the start of the 50th celebration, but maybe those are your travel days. I believe the prior weekend has some grad nights on the 29th and 30th when the MK closes at 7 pm. It's probably a tossup. From what I've read, I can't trust the scale completely either. (Although I wish I could!)

 

[DebbieB]

I would assume it's based on historical information, it would probably not take special events or weather into account. For example, if Saturday is rainy, locals may stay away but then if it's nice on Sunday more will come out.

 

[heidica]

If you go to http://www.touringplans.com/BestDays.htm , scroll all the way to the bottom of the page and you will see the list of 21 rules the UG uses to determine the crowd level for each day. The rules account for a lot, but not everything. That would be impossible.

 

[ncbyrne]

Keep in mind that this year, on May 5th the free bus transportation starts from MCO to WDW. Some people may be waiting for that perk and it might affect the crowds - only time will tell.