How do they figure out crowd levels?

[Chabby]

Hi guys:
I need your help with a discussion I'm having with a travel agent. She says we need to book our September vacation for a large group ASAP because otherwise Disney will run out of rooms and prices will go up.
I know she is wrong! I told her, among other things, that crowd levels will be at the lowest for the week we want to go. She is asking me where do I get my information.
I get it from easy WDW and Your first time visit, etc. But where do they get it from?
Thanks!

 

[jon18uk]

touring plans uses historical queue time information to make estimates of how busy the parks are going to be.

 

[DynamicDisney]

They probably get it from historical data from years past, and how many people were in the parks, how many rooms they had booked, etc. It's always a guess, since things may change from year to year, but they can at least look at trends to make predictions.

 

[Alesia]

Mostly from historical data.

Your travel agent isn't necessarily giving you bad advice, though. It's true that the parks will be less crowded, but because of the promotions Disney offers to entice people to come during hurricane season, a greater percentage of those people will stay onsite. Also, a large percentage of people who visit at that time
are either adults only or smaller families, who are much more likely to stay onsite than larger families.

You don't necessarily need to book tomorrow or anything, but I wouldn't drag my feet if I were you.

 

[LSUfan4444]

Your looking at trends and tendencies. Things like kids vacations, extra magic hours, special events, etc. When you look at how those things trended in years past it helps you paint a picture of what can relatively be expected.

 

[Chabby]

Thanks guys!

 

[hakepb]

Josh (EasyWDW) says he gets his predicted crowd numbers directly from Disney.

 

[LSUfan4444]

Josh (EasyWDW) says he gets his predicted crowd numbers directly from Disney.

Where did you get this from?

 

[rwdavis2]

Where did you get this from?

Based on some of the info Josh gets I've always speculated he has someone deep inside or is actually a WDW employee.

 

[AngiTN]

Based on some of the info Josh gets I've always speculated he has someone deep inside or is actually a WDW employee.

He doesn't work for Disney. Ever since he started using real data for wait times, and putting them down in a spreadsheet, he's made reference numerous times to a source with the data. So he does have contact with someone "deep inside" so to speak. Whatever it is, you can be sure Disney is aware as there are no sites that has as many page views as his that they are not aware of.

He basically reads trends and combines it with his own personal knowledge from going and observing to determine how things will play out. No one has a method that is right all the time

 

[AngiTN]

Mostly from historical data.

Your travel agent isn't necessarily giving you bad advice, though. It's true that the parks will be less crowded, but because of the promotions Disney offers to entice people to come during hurricane season, a greater percentage of those people will stay onsite. Also, a large percentage of people who visit at that time
are either adults only or smaller families, who are much more likely to stay onsite than larger families.

You don't necessarily need to book tomorrow or anything, but I wouldn't drag my feet if I were you.

I tend to agree. Especially since OP is talking about a large group. A couple can probably wait till much longer to book than a multi family group can.

 

[LSUfan4444]

He basically reads trends and combines it with his own personal knowledge from going and observing to determine how things will play out. No one has a method that is right all the time

Exactly. I think maybe the OP was a bit confused when he has stated that his standby and actual wait times came directly from Disney.

 

[hakepb]

Where did you get this from?

I've seen similar mentions in his tweets and posts, that he gets "public", not internal, crowd predictions from Disney

Unfortunately this interview on another site is all I am locating on Google right now.
http://www.inthemousehouse.com/an-interview-with-josh-easywdw-com/

EasyWDW is the only website on the Internet that could tell you how many people Disney is expecting at a theme park each day

 

[LSUfan4444]

thanks for the read

 

[AngiTN]

Exactly. I think maybe the OP was a bit confused when he has stated that his standby and actual wait times came directly from Disney.

I'm pretty sure they do. He doesn't enter the wait times based on his observation. He does get that data from some source.

ETA - Here is what I had read
http://www.easywdw.com/site-news/free-live-disney-world-wait-times-and-fastpass-return-times/

 

[LSUfan4444]

I'm pretty sure they do. He doesn't enter the wait times based on his observation. He does get that data from some source.

ETA - Here is what I had read
http://www.easywdw.com/site-news/free-live-disney-world-wait-times-and-fastpass-return-times/

I know...I think we're saying the same thing.

 

[AngiTN]

I know...I think we're saying the same thing.

Ah, sorry. I was indeed confused.

 

[PrincessNelly]

She could mean the annual ticket price increase or standard rooms not being available and having to pay more for preferred by "prices may go up."

 

[Chabby]

Thanks again guys!
I was under the impression that she was trying to pressure us to book for personal reasons.
We are planning to book soon, just not before/during the holidays. We planned the trip far out to have time to come up with the money.
I thought maybe January or February were good months to book and start paying, planning to pay in full by the deadline (45 days prior to check in, right?)

 

[LSUfan4444]

Thanks again guys!
I was under the impression that she was trying to pressure us to book for personal reasons.

On a slightly different note...you sure you chose the right TA?