How Accurate are Crowd Predictions

[Jess_S]

I've been checking out crowd prediction calendars on various sites and they vary widely in the crowd level they are predicting. (On a scale of 1-10, the range is 1-6). Even though it's too late for me to change my trip and I'm stuck with whatever crowd level shows up my week (September 20-25), I can't help but wonder how accurate the various crowd calendars are. What has been everyone's experience?

 

[Alesia]

I find easywdw.com to be spot on.

 

[elphie101]

Same as PP, easywdw has always been the most accurate for me in terms of which parks on which days. Love that it's free too

 

[njmousefest]

I don't know. I think Disney is always crowded these days. We went end of april/beginning of may 2015 and crowd levels were supposed to be in the 4/5 range. We chose going this time because the kids aren't in school yet and we weren't hostage to a school calendar. Now going into next year we were thinking of planning a trip after school, so we've been looking at wait times throughout the summer. They actually seem less than when we were there even though the crowd calendar has them between a 7 & 9.

 

[Praying Colonel]

TP.com runs regular blog entries showing how they did--for example:

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/0...alendar-report-july-12-to-18-2015/#more-93865

 

[gavsgirl]

We had been following the many trackers, like yourself, to try to find the least crowded time that fit into our schedule. We had settled on end of September of 2014 as it says it was one of the low volume times with kids in school. It definitely was a very crowded time- more so than the sites predicted or any of the CM even expected. It was so bad I swore I'd never go back as it was hard to enjoy but that was very short lived and here I am going back in December! I don't think there's a true way to predict the crowds anymore. I just hope for the best and know that it's Disney and it's going to be crowded. Expect the worst, hope for the best!

 

[Jess_S]

I used easywdw to plan which days we are in which park. I'm happy to hear that some people found it accurate. It's predictions are in the middle of the pack compared to other sites.

I originally booked the trip in late September because we got the best room discount that week -- we saved almost $400 over the prior week. I was hoping the discount also correlated with low crowds. But being able to afford AKL is its own reward even if things are busier than projected.

 

[momimouse27]

I have found them to be fairly accurate, although they have the occasional day where they're way off. We also went end of April/early May this year. I was pleasantly surprised at the crowds that week, they were very manageable.

I have been that last week of September before. I know crowds are steadily higher than they used to be, but I'm fairly certain that will still be a pretty low crowd week.

 

[tcumom0613]

Oh...thanks for the info on easywdw...I'm going to try it out. I normally use touring plans but I wondered how accurate they are.

 

[Princess Mulan]

I've been checking out crowd prediction calendars on various sites and they vary widely in the crowd level they are predicting. (On a scale of 1-10, the range is 1-6). Even though it's too late for me to change my trip and I'm stuck with whatever crowd level shows up my week (September 20-25), I can't help but wonder how accurate the various crowd calendars are. What has been everyone's experience?

Easywdw has never steered me wrong.

 

[RetroCOTfan]

We had been following the many trackers, like yourself, to try to find the least crowded time that fit into our schedule. We had settled on end of September of 2014 as it says it was one of the low volume times with kids in school. It definitely was a very crowded time- more so than the sites predicted or any of the CM even expected. It was so bad I swore I'd never go back as it was hard to enjoy but that was very short lived and here I am going back in December! I don't think there's a true way to predict the crowds anymore. I just hope for the best and know that it's Disney and it's going to be crowded. Expect the worst, hope for the best!

We had a similar experience in October a few years back. We had a chance to take a fall trip and were expecting light crowds, but arrived to find crowds that we felt were on par with the summer! We eventually realized that not only was it Columbus Day weekend, but it was also Yom Kippur, and lots of families had an extra-long weekend. We made the best of it, and now I remember to closely watch not only crowd calendars, but "real life" calendars, too!

 

[lynch34]

I'm going in a week where its supposedly mostly 2s and 3s. I'm expecting busy. There's not much "offseason" anymore so don't think about it. Enjoy your stay and have fun. The predictions aren't worth much.

 

[maarowak]

I used easywdw when travelling last year and it worked very, very well. I'm using it once again for our next trip (-:

 

[JZCubed]

I've been checking out crowd prediction calendars on various sites and they vary widely in the crowd level they are predicting. (On a scale of 1-10, the range is 1-6). Even though it's too late for me to change my trip and I'm stuck with whatever crowd level shows up my week (September 20-25), I can't help but wonder how accurate the various crowd calendars are. What has been everyone's experience?

As I understand it, the professional Crowd Predictions are based on hotel occupancy rates.

Crowds are something of a double-edged sword - if more people are expected, some rides and attractions are readied to handle larger crowds. You can also feel crowd levels at the resort swimming pools.

What I find more important is reading the Park suggestions for any given day at easywdw. For instance, my family was just at Disney during July 4th period and for the most part, we rarely felt the 8-9 level crowd levels. Only time we felt crowded was for special fireworks on July 3 & 4 at MK - which were AVOID days on easywdw.

 

[elphie101]

Also remember that what makes WDW a level 2, 5, 9 in crowds can and does fluctuate with time. What was a 3 in 2010 is certainly not the same number of people/crowd density it is now in 2015. Like the PP said, especially if you're going by Easywdw's crowds then following the recommended park days will definitely help you. Our last trip was 8/9 level the entire time and we felt the crowds whenever we deviated from the suggestions (like SWW on a Saturday!)

 

[momimouse27]

I have been very happy with easywdw. I used to pay for touring plans but its not needed anymore. I usually take easywdw and undercover tourist and look at them together and try to make a good decision about where to go on what day. So far, I've been happy with the results.

 

[marielynn724]

In September it will NOT be that crowded at all... just try to avoid Epcot on the 25th as that's the day Food and Wine festival opens, unless of course you really want to try the festival for yourself.

 

[maloned]

I've used Dad's Guide to WDW for the last few years and I've been fairly happy. It's been mostly accurate. I'm going to try Easy WDW next time.

http://www.dadsguidetowdw.com/crowds.html

 

[RetroCOTfan]

In September it will NOT be that crowded at all... just try to avoid Epcot on the 25th as that's the day Food and Wine festival opens, unless of course you really want to try the festival for yourself.

Although, if Food & Wine is your thing, you could try going on the 24th. I believe the booths generally have a "soft opening" the day before, but some F&W vets can probably confirm that.

 

[Jess_S]

We're counting on the F&W soft opening on the 24th. I actually cancelled our ADR that night in the hopes that we can wander around Epcot doing some sampling. I remain hopeful that this trip will not be a repeat of our 2013 Gay Days fiasco at Disneyland. I used a crowd calendar to pick the weekend for that trip and the site I used forgot to factor in Gay Days. It was so crowded that we could barely move at times. My husband keeps saying, "As long as it's not that crowded, we'll be okay."