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Has Disney miscalculated the economic recovery

Masonmj84

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 28, 2011
or have they simply decided that the long-term strategic goal of weaning the public off discounts overrides the tactical objective of keeping their resorts relatively full?

Some observations:

Up through Q1 of 2012, it appeared as if the economy was slowly on the road to recovery. Disney has seemed to rely on this as an opportunity to wean the public off of discounts.

However, since then it has become increasingly apparent that the to so-called recovery is stagnating. GDP growth over the last couple quarters has dropped substantially and unemployment has seemed to hit a wall (with the increased possiblity of a double dip recession).

Nevertheless, Disney seems intent on cutting discounts. While free dining has still been offered, the dates have been much more limited than in the previous couple of years.

Room discounts, in particular, have been cut rather dramatically. These discounts are particluarly relevant to deluxe resort bookings, which has led me to wonder whether the stall in the recovery has not affected the higher-end consumer as much as the rest of the population (or, at least, Disney sees it this way).

But then I hear reports that an entire longhouse at the Poly is closed in the middle of the summer, not for renovations but because bookings in the resort have been insufficient.

Putting all of this together, I'm having a hard time believing that Disney is hitting their usual capacity goals at their higher end (and perhaps even some of their moderate) resorts. This leads me back to my original question.

In any event, it will be interesting to see what kind of room discounts are offered for the remainder of this year and into 2013.
 
I doubt Disney has miscalculated anything.

A couple of weeks ago I looked out at the throngs of people either on Main Street or waiting for Fantasmic to start (with a full stadium close to an hour before showtime) and thought: Disney is averaging pulling in around $50 per person per day (that's my guess...I don't know what it really is) and that's just for park admission. Add food, souvenirs, parking, etc., etc. and the numbers have got to be staggering.

If they did make a gross miscalculation somewhere, they have the ability to do last minute discounting. I just don't see it; demand is still very strong.
 
I'd believe the only way to know for sure whether Disney has a business need to offer resort discounts is the true hard data on their resort vacancy rates. That said, none of us in the general public will be privy to the information, so I'm not sure we'll ever know for sure. There are obviously more and more non-Disney rooms available every year giving travelers more choice and the world economy really does suck in most countries. I always hope for a discount but budget without it. I'm so grateful we can go no matter what:hug:
 
WDW is addicted to discounts/special offers. With the economy in the tank and little relief in the short term WDW will keep on giving us discounts. C'mon FD for Mardi Gras!!!!
 


One other item to take into consideration is the number of foreign tourists that come every year to WDW that are not tied to the US Economy. Again, the public does not have access to these numbers, but if US visiters can't afford to come, perhaps those spots and deluxe hotel rooms will be filled by others. Disney seems to know exactly how to discount rooms to their advantage.
 
Europe's economy is deeper in the tank than the US's, with many European countries (Italy, Greece, the Netherlands to name a few) without governments at this time. The Olympics commentators have also mentioned that the UK's economy is severely hurting-so I'm not sure where the foreign visitors are coming from.

Our last few trips have entailed split stays at deluxe resorts due to 40% off. This fall we'll still do deluxe, but no split stay-with 4 of us at the Poly free dining is actually more of discount than 40% off at Garden View so it still works for us. Very gratefully, TG
 
I think it remains to be seen this year how they did. Right now there is FD, but as you said it is far more limited than I remember it being in the past because Disney is filling those rooms in other ways. The AP discounts were also kind of sad in comparison to other years and the room only for this fall/winter are not out yet, but I expect they'll be limited as well. My personal theory is that Disney is limiting the room-only because they are filling the hotel with guests who do not necessarily go to the park (conventioneers, pop warner, etc). But the FD remains because it requires park tickets and dining, which means that the people benefiting most from those discounts are the ones who are not only paying rack rate, but buying a park ticket, and then going INTO the parks to spend money on other food/souvenirs etc. It seems that's a more solid investment for discounts than a room-only where the person may not even go to the parks and may not spend any money apart from on their room.
 


Discounts are funny things. We have our own business. It isn't always best to offer huge discounts to get customers. Sometimes there is a point that benefits a business more than a vast quantity of discounts. Perhaps Disney is still balancing out with the 2009 layoffs and capacity. Maybe it works best for them to only have the resorts at 2/3 capacity and a limited amount of discounting. This may prevent them from having to hire additional staff or may be giving them the opportunity to do necessary renovations. It is hard to say, but there is no way for us to know without being flies on the walls of the higher ups at the company. I think Disney is too good at making money for a gross miscalculation. They are balancing a bunch of factors to make things most profitable for them over the long-haul. Besides, they can always add discounts 30 days out if they need to.
 
I still try to go without discounts - but I have to make adjustments to where I stay, value or moderate resort instead of deluxe, not buy as much merchandise, maybe shorten my length of stay, etc.

Remember when they were giving gift cards with the MYW packages! Now that was fun! :goodvibes
 
Europe's economy is deeper in the tank than the US's, with many European countries (Italy, Greece, the Netherlands to name a few) without governments at this time. The Olympics commentators have also mentioned that the UK's economy is severely hurting-so I'm not sure where the foreign visitors are coming from.

Australia. We are one of the few nations that have had no economic crisis and things are smooth sailing. :yay:

Ok, not all visitors are coming from Australia but this is a fantastic time for us to travel as our dollar is stronger than the US dollar and both Europe and America are much cheaper as a result.
 
Why not see if you can find the information in the Walt Disney World 2011 Annual Report?
 
grafxgirl said:
Why not see if you can find the information in the Walt Disney World 2011 Annual Report?

I'm not sure what specifically you are referring to, but I posted some stats from the annual report in another thread recently. Revenues in the parks and at the resorts were up for 2011.
 
I still try to go without discounts - but I have to make adjustments to where I stay, value or moderate resort instead of deluxe, not buy as much merchandise, maybe shorten my length of stay, etc.

Remember when they were giving gift cards with the MYW packages! Now that was fun! :goodvibes

That was fun, so was they buy 4 get 3! Now those were the days.....
 
I doubt Disney has miscalculated anything.

A couple of weeks ago I looked out at the throngs of people either on Main Street or waiting for Fantasmic to start (with a full stadium close to an hour before showtime) and thought: Disney is averaging pulling in around $50 per person per day (that's my guess...I don't know what it really is) and that's just for park admission. Add food, souvenirs, parking, etc., etc. and the numbers have got to be staggering.

If they did make a gross miscalculation somewhere, they have the ability to do last minute discounting. I just don't see it; demand is still very strong.

Just because the parks are full don't mean the resorts are. Disney needs to keep all areas of business busy.
 
Yay for you, Australia! Good to know $ is strong and Disney desire is there:flower3:
 
Just because the parks are full don't mean the resorts are. Disney needs to keep all areas of business busy.

This is true. I think it will be interesting to see what Disney does next Easter. We were there right during Easter this year (April 2012) and our 2 resorts had tons of rooms available, so we were upgraded at both of them (WL and BC). Both resort CM's told me that they had a lot of empty rooms, most likely due to the black-out of deals (thankfully we got a AAA discount, better than nothing). The parks were busy enough, though some days were very, very manageable, and no parks closed due to full capacity as in previous years. So during a time when Disney is normally filled to capacity, it was not the case this year. Maybe their profit margin evened out due to the people that did stay in Disney paying rack rate versus previous years when thousands more people stayed in Disney at a discount. Maybe it all evened out, I don't know.
 
I was in the parks 3 weeks ago. As far as crowds, I noticed large tours groups from South America. But in the middle of July it was easy to ride everything and have a wonderful time. Being a season pass holder from the Panhandle of Florida we have noticed that the crowds have dipped far below what they were in the past. pirate:
 
That was fun, so was they buy 4 get 3! Now those were the days.....

Aaahhhh, now that was my favorite discount ever!:thumbsup2

It seems that the Fall is getting more busy each year so maybe less people are going peak season and go in the off season instead. Ut-oh, who let out our secret!?:rolleyes:
 
I wonder how much of this has to do with people holding off until 2013 for the opening of Fantasyland? There are a lot of people that can't afford to go every year and may decide to wait for the new section of Magic Kingdom to be opened.
 
Brandilovesdisney said:
I wonder how much of this has to do with people holding off until 2013 for the opening of Fantasyland? There are a lot of people that can't afford to go every year and may decide to wait for the new section of Magic Kingdom to be opened.

Me too!!
 

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