I wanted to finally share some thoughts for 2014 and how it's shaping up in terms of discounts and promotions. First I will share thoughts on promos and discounts, then I'll share things that could alter those. Finally, I will share how we all can help shape the discounts to come...yes, there are things we can do. Are you with me? Ok, lets go.
Free dining is without a doubt the most popular and most anticipated discount of the whole year, and that's no secret to Disney. Free dining was first offered for the month of September (and usually the last week or so of August) due to two factors....(1) the peak of hurricane season...and (2) kids returning to school. These two factors kept September as the least crowded month of all for Disney, so they threw this offer out and have been every year since. As the economy went south, Disney saw free dining as an offer to entice visitation, and offered it during other months. This is why, even as the economy returned to (somewhat) normal, free dining has continued to be offered in September....because that month has far different reasons than the others.
Many of you remember in May when free dining was released, how mad it was calling in to book. Phones were flooded, the website crashed, it was an absolute onslaught of bookings. Even with free dining and as popular as it is, September was STILL the least crowded month of a record breaking attendance year (with the lone exception of the Villains event at Studios). At Magic Kingdom, the longest wait time I encountered was Splash Mountain, at 5 minutes....Little Mermaid and other rides were a walk-on. The longest time I saw was Midway Mania with 45 minutes...which is usually up to 3 times that amount. Soarin' and Test Track...walk-ons each time I went.
Disney has also been lately trying to bring down the discounts and replace some with others....such as Stay/Play/Dine. This promotion will replace most of the free dining during the non-September months. However, I see free dining sticking around in September due to factors mentioned above. Disney MUST get their bookings for September, which is the least booked time of year....and without free dining, attendance would be much lower than ever. NO other discount could or would book even close. So its either stick with a proven winner, or replace it with something that saves just as much. Remember, a standard discount isn't enough for September....they must sweeten the pot even more.
There are, as I mentioned above, a few things that can swing things the other way. First, if MyMagic+ falls flat on its face, that would be a huge game changer. By "flat on its face", I mean attendance drops. I don't see this happening, as I feel people will still travel to Disney regardless. The thing I could see happening is with their competition. With the opening of Harry Potter phase 2, along with a Value resort at Universal, these could have implications. They will do one of two things...either they will take attendance away from Disney, or actually increase Disney's attendance as more come to Orlando to visit this new area at Universal...the rising tide effect. IF Disney sees a dramatic drop in attendance, only then would they dig into their "free dining" chest for October-December.
Now, what can you all do to help this along. Believe it or not, you can do something...and that is....don't book a reservation. We've long discussed this on these boards, but not booking a reservation is the most sure fire way of getting Disney to offer a discount. The reason is simple, Disney offers discounts due to low bookings. When everyone books a room expecting a discount, they are actually filling rooms, thus not enticing Disney to offer up anything. I'm not sure if you guys know this or not, but this has happened recently.
Do you guys remember a few months back when the room discounts were one of the rumored promos to be coming? When this originally leaked, all looked good up until a few days beforehand....then came news that resorts such as Riverside and All Star Movies would be excluded? Bookings were strong on these resorts, thus no discount was offered. Remember...booking early gives you zero benefit for a discount when it goes live. You still have to call, it still has to show availability, and they have to add it to your room only if the above criteria are met. You are just as likely to get your resort room choice by calling that morning than by booking months ahead.
So guys, please...if you want a promo to drop, don't book anything the promo is released, unless you fully plan to go regardless of a discount or not. Now, if you have a bounceback or PIN offer, then absolutely jump on that as soon as possible. I always said, always ALWAYS do the bounceback. I currently have a free dining reservation for September, and the bounceback even offered a wider date range than public offers.
So in short...I see free dining for September only, similar to 2013....which would equate roughly to Sept 1-24, 2014 (give or take). Beyond that the best to hope for is stay/play/dine, which isn't bad, just not quite as good. I do however see evidence of the room discounts continuing. In fact, some more should be dropping very soon (hint hint).
Another thing that will happen even more is PIN codes for everything from room discounts, to even free dining, which many of you have been received in the past, as Disney uses this means of discount more and more. So please feel free to share the news with us, but remember, only you and you alone can use your PIN code.
That is my crystal ball for what 2014 could have in store. We've been seeing this pull-back for some time now, so it's probably not much of a surprise.
So, thoughts? Would stay/play/dine be enough to entice you? Do you prefer the room discounts anyway? Is free dining the only way you can go this year? I'd be curious to hear.
By myself. On the quick service plan no less. There is no way. Even if I decide to do a TS I'd have to pay OOP since my dining wouldn't cover it unless I upgraded and 4 TS and 4 CS plus snacks is more than I want to deal with. I tend to eat ala carte or snacks for breakfast and/or lunch and maybe do one actual meal per day. Even then I'm happy with CS as often as a TS.
Wind and water don't scare me.
