Fast Pass phasing out?!

[SanFranciscan]

I have never used the Fast Pass system at Disney because it reminds me of that Leona Helmsly hotel queen woman, if I am spelling her name right, who said that only little people pay taxes. It smacks of a "Me first! Waiting is for suckers!" attitude.

I realize that humans are not a benevolent breed. There is a part of our brains that is very reptilian. However, if we could just silence that big King Cobra up there for the few hours that we are in Disney theme parks, we would all have a much better time. We go to Disney theme parks to experience Disney magic. The best way to make sure that we experience it is to do our little part in creating it.

 

[doconeill]

I have never used the Fast Pass system at Disney because it reminds me of that Leona Helmsly hotel queen woman, if I am spelling her name right, who said that only little people pay taxes. It smacks of a "Me first! Waiting is for suckers!" attitude.

I realize that humans are not a benevolent breed. There is a part of our brains that is very reptilian. However, if we could just silence that big King Cobra up there for the few hours that we are in Disney theme parks, we would all have a much better time. We go to Disney theme parks to experience Disney magic. The best way to make sure that we experience it is to do our little part in creating it.

I'm curious as to why you believe that, because Fastpass is free to all at the parks - anyone can use it, and there is no "class system" like there is at other parks. At Universal, you either have to stay at their hotel, or pay a premium. Six Flags you have to pay. At Disney, its totally free.

 

[DC7800]

Right, I understand that. BUT, if the people getting Fastpass would have gone in the standby line anyways if Fastpass was not available, then that means there are more people in the line, and anyone behind them waits that much longer. In fact, what it really does is allow some more people to get through the standby line faster because the people who got the Fastpass stay out of the line a bit longer since the Fastpass is (usually) for a time later than how long it would take to get through the standby line. No one should truely be _delayed_ due to Fastpass, but there is always the _perception_ of being delayed. If you understand that the Fastpass people would have been in the line in front of you anyways if they didn't get a Fastpass, then you'd realize that you are not really waiting longer because of it

It's not just a perception of delay - the standby actually must move slower than it would without FastPass. How many people are in the standby line has nothing to do with it; FastPass slows standby loading down whether there are 50 or 5,000 people waiting standby. Consider an example (fictitious) attraction with a capacity of 2,000 guests per hour, with 500 FastPasses distributed per hour (easy numbers just to keep the math simple!). Assume there are 3,000 people in the standby line at, for instance, 2:00. With only a standby line, the 3,000th person in line at 2:00 should board in about 90 minutes. However, with FastPass you have another 500 people returning in that first hour for priority boarding. So, while 2,000 persons in the standby line should have boarded in those 60 minutes (leaving another 30 minutes to reach our example '3,000th' guest), now only 1,500 standby riders will get through the line in the same amount of time, and our example rider will spend a full two hours in the standby line with FastPass (90 minutes without FastPass); The same total of 4,000 riders will still have boarded in those two hours - 3,000 standby and 1,000 FastPass.

If you hold a FastPass, and know how to use it effectively, this is a tremendous benefit, but it comes at a cost of longer waits for those who have to wait standby. Which will ultimately be all or most of us at some point, unless you manage to obtain a FastPass for every attraction you ride. You also cannot assume that the standby line will be any shorter because of the existence of FastPass - these guests may not have been in front of you anyway. As YoHo said:

The thing is though that many people judge whether they'll get in a line based on current wait, so you can't say that the line would be the same length, because it may not have been.

If FastPass otherwise makes the standby line shorter, this provides an incentive for more people to enter the standby line for that attraction - it doesn't stay that short. Actual wait times aside, if you see a half-empty attraction queue (half full because the Fastpass people aren't in it) you are more likely to line up yourself. But those 'missing' FP'ers are still going to come back, and since they are 'virtually' in front of you, you are going to wait longer in that standby line. But if there really were fewer people in the standby line, because the remainder are elsewhere holding FastPasses, the smaller number of people who are in that line still move slower than they would without FastPass. In the example above with 2,000 people per hour, instead of having all 2,000 in the standby line you have 1,500 there and 500 returning with FastPass. Without FP rider #1,500 should get on in 45 minutes; With FP it will be about an hour or close, because those FP holders will show up before the end of that hour specified on the FastPass - our example rider 1500 will have to wait for all of them.

 

[doconeill]

It's not just a perception of delay - the standby actually must move slower than it would without FastPass. How many people are in the standby line has nothing to do with it; FastPass slows standby loading down whether there are 50 or 5,000 people waiting standby. Consider an example (fictitious) attraction with a capacity of 2,000 guests per hour, with 500 FastPasses distributed per hour (easy numbers just to keep the math simple!). Assume there are 3,000 people in the standby line at, for instance, 2:00. With only a standby line, the 3,000th person in line at 2:00 should board in about 90 minutes. However, with FastPass you have another 500 people returning in that first hour for priority boarding. So, while 2,000 persons in the standby line should have boarded in those 60 minutes (leaving another 30 minutes to reach our example '3,000th' guest), now only 1,500 standby riders will get through the line in the same amount of time, and our example rider will spend a full two hours in the standby line with FastPass (90 minutes without FastPass); The same total of 4,000 riders will still have boarded in those two hours - 3,000 standby and 1,000 FastPass.

But you are forgetting - what would those FP users have done if there was not a FP to use? My assumption is that they still would have gotten in the standby line, and they would have been in the line _earlier_. So, if we move your example up to Rope Drop (just to make this easier). At that time the same 4000 people go to the ride, 1000 people get FP and go off and do something else, and the other 3000 get in the standby line. 1 hour after rope drop 500 of the FP users return. Before that, 2000 people from the standby line get to ride - but if those 1000 FP users had instead got into the standby line, then only 1000 of the others would have gotten to ride at that point - so the standby line guests _benefitted_ from the Fastpasses. Then the first 500 FP users get in, and they get to go ahead of the others in the standby line, and the 500 others still come later - the 3,000th guest who went through the standby line still gets to ride at the 2 hour point, which they would have if there were no FPs.

The real difference is, the reported wait time in the Standby line would report 60 minutes when the 2,000'th guest made it through, fooling others in to thinking it was shorter, and it would grow to 120 minutes over the course of the next hour.

So it can be demonstrated that FP actually had a positive effect on the the standby line, at least for the early users. Since FPs are spread throughout the day, this benefit should remain by diverting guests who otherwise would enter the line immediately to a later time, but the benefit diminishes with time as FPs run out and late FP users show up.

What really can throw things off are the number of FP takers who ALSO ride the standby line (who otherwise would only ride once), which does diminish the benefit if not actually swing it the other way.

Alas, I was interrupted about 5 times while typing this, so I think that is everything I wanted to say.

I have a half-written simulator that was supposed to help picture these things, but I have been unable to spend any time on it.

 

[Dznefreek]

But you are forgetting - what would those FP users have done if there was not a FP to use? My assumption is that they still would have gotten in the standby line, and they would have been in the line earluer.

My assumption is they would be in line for a different attraction since they would have not had to return.

 

[YoHo]

Exactly, they would be in line at Carousel of Progress, or Country Bear Jamboree or riding the main street vehicles or in the Mike Fink Keel Boats or any of dozens of attractions past or present that are not E-tickets.

The original system worked, because the less popular attractions absorbed these people. Now those attractions languish, because people are getting fast passes and running off to another E-Ticket to get in standby. It's like being in two lines at the same time. AND, because those people aren't in those A-D ticket attractions, they are filling up walkways and wasting space making the park feel more full than it actually is.

 

[puffkins]

Disney...please do not copy Universal and Sea World. Thier system is great for the 5% of park goers that stay in the overpriced company resorts and a terrible detriment to everyone else.

 

[puffkins]

I'm curious as to why you believe that, because Fastpass is free to all at the parks - anyone can use it, and there is no "class system" like there is at other parks. At Universal, you either have to stay at their hotel, or pay a premium. Six Flags you have to pay. At Disney, its totally free.

Amen

 

[zguy71]

I hope they leave it the way it is.

 

[rutgers1]

My head is hurting after reading this. I gather that the people who don't mind seeing FP gos are those who aren't very good at working the FP's to their advantage. I can't see a downside at all in the FP system. When I get to the park, I know there are several popular rides that I want to hit, so I plan my day around getting FP's for those. In turn, I never have to wait much for those rides. And when I am not on a FP ride, I hit the non FP rides, shop, and eat. In the end, I spend less of my day on line and see/do more. The only time a FP stinks is when you don't have one and you want to go on a ride. That is when I look at my wife and say, "Well, I guess we better get here earlier tomorrow!" And we do.

 

[All Aboard]

doconeill,

True, average wait time for the attraction should be the same in a fastpass v. no-FP comparison. However, the short wait times of all of the fastpassers results in longer wait times for the non-FPers

In a super simplified hypothetical, let's say that on a particular day the average wait time (each guest's wait time divided by the total number of guests who experienced the attraction) is 30 minutes and the attraction moved 10,000 guests that day. So, in other words, there was a total of 300,000 wait-minutes that day.

Now, throw in Fastpass and let's say that 60% of the guests used it with an average wait time of 10 minutes. So, 6,000 guests waiting 10 minutes each is 60,000 wait minutes. Therefore the other 4,000 guests wait a total of 240,000 minutes for an average wait time of 60 minutes.

So, in this example, the average wait time of the stand-by queue doubled. But, true, the average wait time for all guests did not change.

 

[doconeill]

doconeill,

True, average wait time for the attraction should be the same in a fastpass v. no-FP comparison. However, the short wait times of all of the fastpassers results in longer wait times for the non-FPers

In a super simplified hypothetical, let's say that on a particular day the average wait time (each guest's wait time divided by the total number of guests who experienced the attraction) is 30 minutes and the attraction moved 10,000 guests that day. So, in other words, there was a total of 300,000 wait-minutes that day.

Now, throw in Fastpass and let's say that 60% of the guests used it with an average wait time of 10 minutes. So, 6,000 guests waiting 10 minutes each is 60,000 wait minutes. Therefore the other 4,000 guests wait a total of 240,000 minutes for an average wait time of 60 minutes.

So, in this example, the average wait time of the stand-by queue doubled. But, true, the average wait time for all guests did not change.

I'm not sure that the math quite works that way, but my brain is way too overtaxed today to do even the simplest math problems...

I REALLY want to put together a simulator...but it won't happen this week for sure.

 

[speedyf]

Consider an example (fictitious) attraction with a capacity of 2,000 guests per hour, with 500 FastPasses distributed per hour (easy numbers just to keep the math simple!). Assume there are 3,000 people in the standby line at, for instance, 2:00. With only a standby line, the 3,000th person in line at 2:00 should board in about 90 minutes. However, with FastPass you have another 500 people returning in that first hour for priority boarding. So, while 2,000 persons in the standby line should have boarded in those 60 minutes (leaving another 30 minutes to reach our example '3,000th' guest), now only 1,500 standby riders will get through the line in the same amount of time, and our example rider will spend a full two hours in the standby line with FastPass (90 minutes without FastPass); The same total of 4,000 riders will still have boarded in those two hours - 3,000 standby and 1,000 FastPass.

Now...assume that the 1,000 people that obtained Fast Passes in your example, instead get into the stand-by line since there is no fast pass to obtain. That 1,000 people will still be in front of your 3,000th guest....so, guest #3000 will still be guest #4000. In your example, you are assuming that the 1,000 people that obtain a fast pass would not ride the attraction at all if there were no fast passes available. I think that these people would actually get in the stand-by line if no fast passes were available.

Speed

 

[manning]

Before fastpass the now standby line seemed to flow at a steady pace. Now it is move a little, wait, move a little, wait.

I see nothing wrong with fastpass being eliminated and everyone gets an equal chance to get on a ride.

 

[manning]

I'm curious as to why you believe that, because Fastpass is free to all at the parks - anyone can use it, and there is no "class system" like there is at other parks. At Universal, you either have to stay at their hotel, or pay a premium. Six Flags you have to pay. At Disney, its totally free.

At Disney you get to go to the head of the line for......free!!!


Way back when, you got to go to the head of the line if you owned Disney stock or you where an employee of a ride sponsor.

 

[YoHo]

My head is hurting after reading this. I gather that the people who don't mind seeing FP gos are those who aren't very good at working the FP's to their advantage. I can't see a downside at all in the FP system. When I get to the park, I know there are several popular rides that I want to hit, so I plan my day around getting FP's for those. In turn, I never have to wait much for those rides. And when I am not on a FP ride, I hit the non FP rides, shop, and eat. In the end, I spend less of my day on line and see/do more. The only time a FP stinks is when you don't have one and you want to go on a ride. That is when I look at my wife and say, "Well, I guess we better get here earlier tomorrow!" And we do.

You would be making an incorrect assumption. I'm quite good at making use of fastpass.

The fact is that average guest attractions/Day has not increased, so your supposition that people are missing fewer attractions is wrong.

A number of attractions have been closed or gone to seasonal or just left to rot, because fewer people are riding them. So, by definition, the general WDW population cannot possibly experiencing more attractions. They MUST be experiencing fewer.

Fast pass doesn't let you see more in the same amount of time. It just shifts the waits around in a different manner. All while clogging the walkways and shuttering A-D attractions.

 

[YoHo]

Also, this isn't Simple math. Queueing is actually reasonably difficult math and they entire thing is it's own type of science/engineering.

 

[raidermatt]

Hours are also shorter, so even if you want to experience more attractions by utilizing FP, you can't. You can only squeeze the same into less time. But of course that also means those not utilzing FP do experience fewer attractions since the day is shorter.

Anyway, yes, figuring out the exact impacts would be pretty complicated.

But the concept is really simple.

In a perfect world where instituting FP has absolutely no ancillary impacts, the standby line would have fewer people in it, but would move slower, resulting in exactly the same actual wait time.

Example- No FP, 100 people in standby line. With FP, 90 people in standby line, while other 10 still load through FP line. The 90 people in the standby line would still wait the same amount of time as they did before because they have to merge with the other 10. They would just start out a little closer to the front but not progress as fast.

Problem is, it isn't a perfect world. As YoHo pointed out, those who properly use FP will experience more attractions in the given time, therefore increasing standby lines in any extra attraction they experience.

What's more, some will ride the same FP attraction again, either by getting another FP or going in the standby line, both of which increase standby lines.

True, that might not be a big number, but I think a good percentage of FP users do experience more FP attractions in total than they would without FP. In other words, they may not go on Splash Mountain twice, but they are more likely to be able to squeeze in Splash, Space Mountain, Big Thunder, Peter Pan, etc. That will also increase standby lines on those FP attractions.

Bottom line, the ONLY way there is no impact to standby wait times is if every single FP user rides the same number of attractions as they would without FP. As Disney found out, that just isn't the case. If guests find a way to get more time, they will use it mostly to ride more attractions, not leave earlier or buy souveniers.

So standby wait times HAVE to suffer.

How much would be the tough part. That is impossible to calculate without reliable data to input.

 

[raidermatt]

All that said, I do think eliminating FP at WDW would be an EXTREMELY difficult proposition for Disney to sell. Less so at DL, but still tricky.

 

[Princess of Genovia]

Doing away with fast passes would be one of the worst ideas disney has ever had. If they got rid of them it would drive people away. If I remember correctly, when fast passes first came out you could put anything in the machine that had a magnetic strip and get as many fast passes as you wanted. Then we had to adapt to only getting one fast pass in an hour and now they are asking us to adapt to no fast passes at all?!?! In my opinion they are nuts if they get rid of the fast passes. I don't know about all of you, but I don't want to stand in line for hours to ride a ride that is three minutes or less.

My two cents.