I feel everybody's pain. I'm sorry that there are such long waits.
However, I'm not sure if the right questions is - Is It more crowded? I don't know if this will get you to the answer of why there are currently longer fastpass+/standby waits than anticipated this time of year.
Yes, more school systems are out on holidays right now because of the "balanced school year". There are more people there right now than is typical, I'm sure.
What people are talking a lot about on these boards, though, is discovering that fastpasses are gone earlier. And one assumption is that the reason is because more fastpasses+ are pre-booked, leaving few legacy fastpasses available. So my question is - how many people are actually using FastPass+ compared to the number of people who used the legacy fastpass system?
Disney has created the extreme line-up situation - i.e. they've done this to themselves through an excellent education program to encourage full participation in the new FastPass+ program. Most people today, whether first time visitors, or veterans, are all signing up to use the FastPass+ system. Compare this to whatever the percentage was of people who never used, or understood, or even KNEW about the legacy fastpass system, and I think this will offer a clue as to why the fastpass+ lines are longer.
That is probably the biggest "oops" in the rollout....I am wondering if Disney didn't anticipate the high number of users???? Let me put that another way. Yes, they know how many people are registered in the resorts, so know approximately how many people will be using the new FastPass+ system. Perhaps what has happened is they over-estimated how many people used the legacy system.....my suspicion is that is the part they got wrong!
And yes, it sounds like they are playing with the actual number of fastpasses that are available per day at an attraction. They increased those numbers, and now it sounds like they are cutting back again - all in an effort to get the right balance. That said, they must remember that they haven't added people who are staying off-site yet, and the other large item that will impact long lines - increased crowds!
This is indeed a huge paradigm shift from the way things have been done in the past. Its not just one thing changing - giving people a chance to adapt because most other things stayed equal. This new system is a huge game changer, and I think even Disney hasn't yet anticipated all the secondary and tertiary consequences.
I for one am still predicting the demise of the rope drop advantage. I'm sure there will be many other previous advantages that will no longer apply. We just have to get busy figuring out what the new ones are!