DVC points do not have the same values?

[MoreTravels]

I was just thinking about how BLT is more expensive than VGF. Then it dawned on me that DVC is creating a multi-tier "currency" system, hiding the true expensive nature of the resorts.

They have chosen not to sell those points for $200 /pt, making them look "cheap" at $150.

But the "currency rate" for room exchange is different. It's like you still have the same dollar amount in number, but the number needed now is Japanese yen. In other words, you need a lot more points to exchange for the same room.

If they allow VGF to have average point value, then every DVC owner like VB or HH will get the rooms cheap.

With this pattern, Polynesian DVC will be sold at $100 / pt but you need 400 points to exchange for one week stay of a studio room.

 

[jlapointe30]

I am not sure I follow. Disney does not make VGF points look cheap by selling them at 150$/pt as it is the same price as other actively sold resort like AKL and Aulani. Discrepancies in the price per points is attributable to offer/demand variations. It has always been the point chart that was showing the real value of a particular room or resort or even season. BLT is currently more expensive as it is almost sold out so demand is higher in relation to offer. The DVC point is the real currency. When and where you buy will set your exchange rate. The premium is how much you are willing to pay for the 11 months window.

Disney cannot in my opinion sell VGF at 200$ because it would decrease the value of those points in the system. At that price, the point chart would have to go down making it even more "profitable" for "Outsiders" and it would make it more expensive for VGF members to go outside their home resort.

So yes, DVC has its own currency, but it is not multi-tier for Disney as they are only concerned by active sales.

 

[dmunsil]

I was just thinking about how BLT is more expensive than VGF. Then it dawned on me that DVC is creating a multi-tier "currency" system, hiding the true expensive nature of the resorts.

I'm not understanding this. Disney is well aware that there is a baseline value to all the points, which is what they're worth for 7-month booking. That value is the same for every resort. Then there's the premium for 11-month booking privileges, and that amount varies from resort to resort.

I tend to think that Disney's assessment of BLT is that it was priced too high and took too long to sell out - in essence they estimated the "monorail" premium as higher. Or it could be that they feel BLT was fairly priced at $165 when it was the only monorail DVC, but maybe it got harder and harder to sell as time went on, and now they think the remaining monorail-loving folks won't pay that high a premium.

The points chart is the true representation of what they feel the rooms are worth relative to each other. Disney thinks a VGF lake view studio is worth about 50% more than an SSR studio and about the same as a BLT MK view studio. That doesn't seem particularly crazy to me.

 

[DebbieB]

By raising the points required per night, it lowers the dues per point. So that makes it more attractive to new buyers.

 

[drusba]

DVD, when it introduces a new resort for sale, always has two ways to increase the overall price of a resort: higher price per point or higher points per night (and thus per unit). It has generally done both when introducing the last five resorts, AKV, VGC, BLT, Aulani, and VGF.

Moreover, it prepares the members for an increase in such a way that they often believe the dollar price is actually not much of an increase or in the case of VGF a decrease. VGF was a master stroke when you consider what happened. Most of BLT was sold Oct 2008 through late 2010, starting at a $112 a point less incentives and going to $120 less incentives. Thus, over a more than two year period when majority of the resort was sold there was only one price increase. However, during the next 2 1/4 years ending just before VGF went on sale, DVD raised the price of BLT 6 times until it got to $160, during much of which time BLT was sold out and DVD was selling points recaptured through ROFR or foreclosures.


Six raises in just over two years amounting to a 33% increase had nothing to do with inflation which was very low during that time. It had everything to do with the planned introduction of VGF. Disney undoubtedly knew it was going to skew the point world to get more profits by bringing in VGF at a point per night structure that was just below (for standard view at VGF) ) and higher than (for lake view at VGF) BLT Theme Park view. If it had introduced VGF both at such a significant increase in points per night over BLT and also a significant increase in dollars per point over BLT, it would have faced a risk that many wouid balk at buying it. But that is exactly what DVD actually did while cleverly hiding that it did so simply by raising BLT's price an enormous amount over a short period time. Thus, when VGF was announced at $145 to members for a short period and then $150 thereafter, purchasers believed they were actually getting a bargain because BLT cost more, when in fact DVD was getting exactly what it wanted, a much higher price per point than what most of BLT was sold for and a significant increase in points per night and thus per unit.

 

[Andrew015]

DVD, when it introduces a new resort for sale, always has two ways to increase the overall price of a resort: higher price per point or higher points per night (and thus per unit). It has generally done both when introducing the last five resorts, AKV, VGC, BLT, Aulani, and VGF.

Moreover, it prepares the members for an increase in such a way that they often believe the dollar price is actually not much of an increase or in the case of VGF a decrease. VGF was a master stroke when you consider what happened. Most of BLT was sold Oct 2008 through late 2010, starting at a $112 a point less incentives and going to $120 less incentives. Thus, over a more than two year period when majority of the resort was sold there was only one price increase. However, during the next 2 1/4 years ending just before VGF went on sale, DVD raised the price of BLT 6 times until it got to $160, during much of which time BLT was sold out and DVD was selling points recaptured through ROFR or foreclosures.


Six raises in just over two years amounting to a 33% increase had nothing to do with inflation which was very low during that time. It had everything to do with the planned introduction of VGF. Disney undoubtedly knew it was going to skew the point world to get more profits by bringing in VGF at a point per night structure that was just below (for standard view at VGF) ) and higher than (for lake view at VGF) BLT Theme Park view. If it had introduced VGF both at such a significant increase in points per night over BLT and also a significant increase in dollars per point over BLT, it would have faced a risk that many wouid balk at buying it. But that is exactly what DVD actually did while cleverly hiding that it did so simply by raising BLT's price an enormous amount over a short period time. Thus, when VGF was announced at $145 to members for a short period and then $150 thereafter, purchasers believed they were actually getting a bargain because BLT cost more, when in fact DVD was getting exactly what it wanted, a much higher price per point than what most of BLT was sold for and a significant increase in points per night and thus per unit.

I think this hit the nail on the head...

 

[dmunsil]

Yeah, I like Drusba's answer better than mine...

 

[NoleFan]

In addition to raising driving up resale prices of classic resorts- Long wait lists & increase ROFR. Some resale prices are very close to direct (depending on resort & contract size) because resale inventory is limited & again long wait lists. From price per point only, it makes VGF look attractive for a direct purchase (high resale prices now & March increase in direct pricing).....until you see the point chart. Point chart was sticker shock for me when comparing to other resorts.....just MHO

 

[Msmithmd]

Good points made in this thread. My major concern in seeing the pattern drusba eloquently shows, is that Disney will price the value out of DVC- in the same way that they have priced it out of their "free" dining plan.

To wit- when the dining plan "free" offer originated, it was a way to boost attendance at a low time of the year, by really giving people a lot of high quality product at a true dollar discount. Subsequently, they have attacked the value of this offer harshly; by both raising restaurant prices steeply to create an artificial impression of monetary value; and by significantly degrading food quality and content in the items covered by their dining plan.

It seems an awful lot of people still fall for the "free" plan, overpaying for their rooms and getting low real value on the food end in return. These folks would have a heart attack paying McDonald's $60 to feed lunch to their family of four on a random day, yet can't see that many Disney quick service offerings aren't any better- and in some cases are considerably worse. And these same folks rave on and on about "how much money they save with free dining."

Now we see DVC steeply increasing both the purchase cost per point (at both the classic and new resorts) and concomitantly inflating the point charts per night at their new offerings- and one begins to wonder when they will have effectively priced the value out of the DVC product as well. Fortunately most posting to these boards already own their points and are relatively safe, at least at their home resort, from this Disney-created inflation.

But you've gotta wonder if we will see a similar pattern emerge with VGF over the next three years, where the last points sold there are running $215pp, to make $199pp at a new Poly DVC look like a relative bargain.

And when those Poly studios are running 300 points a week for lake view to book, then you will be up to spending many thousands of dollars for a studio week at the Poly, when you add in your annual dues. It's going to be an interesting next few years watching the market to see how this all shakes out...maybe DVC will start offering new sales exclusively to people whose guest surveys state they got an awesome value out of their "free dining plan."

The more I think about just how well the Disney corporation manages to pull this off year after year, the more I think my "addonitis" should be for Disney stock rather than for DVC points.

Then I remember John Carter and Lone Ranger.

 

[jerseyduke]

Good points on all counts.

The Market was being "conditioned".

It is also easier to "hide" a resort being point expensive, as opposed to the price per point being expensive.

I do wonder about the poly...

 

[Sandisw]

I think it also goes to the point that people will spend more points for a location that they like and DVD was aware that it would be possible with VGF.

Many of us had speculated prior to VGF going on sale that it would be extremely high in terms of cost, but when they announced the $145/pt, I know I was surprised that it wasn't higher.

Of course, we paid extra to own at BLT and knew we were paying a point premium for those rooms over other resorts--though we book SV all the time--to stretch the points as best we can there.

Now, to try out VGF, it is going to be more than BLT, so not sure that it will happen too often, but if they do build Poly, it might be something I am willing to pay extra for to stay there...

But, yes, I own BWV points that I got pretty cheap on the resale market so anytime I can exchange them in to BLT or even VGF down the road, it will make it seem like a bargain in terms of "cost".

 

[MiramarQE]

Many of us had speculated prior to VGF going on sale that it would be extremely high in terms of cost, but when they announced the $145/pt, I know I was surprised that it wasn't higher.

If you think VGF was high, wait for the inflation of the Poly - both in $$ and points

 

[cwdefouw]

If you think VGF was high, wait for the inflation of the Poly - both in $$ and points

I think that the inflation in $$ and points will be there when they get around to opening the Poly, however, I am not sure it will be to the extent that it has been for VGF.

1. From what we suspect at this time, the majority of the villas at the Poly are likely to be hotel room conversions, and I don't think that too many will argue that, at AKL at least, these types of rooms somewhat lack in term of design and space. This might preclude existing owners from paying a huge $$ premium up front, and from paying a larger point per night premium further along.

2. The Grand Floridian has been marketed as the WDW "Flagship" resort from the time that it opened. Obviously in Disney's view, villas at this resort should command a "Flagship" price in both $$ and points. To put it bluntly, The Poly is a 40 year old "Deluxe". Now obviously the Poly has it's supporters and I am one of them, but DVD is primarily marketing to new owners, not existing owners, and the Poly does not have the factors that were promoted as super premium WOW factors that BLT (Walking to MK) and VGF (Flagship resort) have. It does have the Monorail and easy access to the TTC. I think the WOW factor they will be using to promote the Poly villas will be these "so called" bungalows. Hopefully the potential new owner general public will do their research and realize that availability will be limited on these and this WOW factor really isn't that much of a wow. DVD will certainly try to stretch this as much as possible, I just don't think they will be able to stretch it as far as they did with VGF, IMHO.

 

[MiramarQE]

The Grand Floridian has been marketed as the WDW "Flagship" resort from the time that it opened. Obviously in Disney's view, villas at this resort should command a "Flagship" price in both $$ and points. Now obviously the Poly has it's supporters and I am one of them, but DVD is primarily marketing to new owners, not existing owners, and the Poly does not have the factors that were promoted as super premium WOW factors that BLT (Walking to MK) and VGF (Flagship resort) have. It does have the Monorail and easy access to the TTC. I think the WOW factor they will be using to promote the Poly villas will be these "so called" bungalows.

I'm also one of those "Poly" supporters - the exclusivity (due to the limited number) and location (on the monorail to MK, walk to the Epcot monorail at TTC, IMHO the best themed resort in Disney), the views across the Seven Seas Lagoon to MK, I think you might see 10% more on the point price and studio point requirements 15-20% beyond even the VGF - a 25% premium over VGF ("lake view" now "MK view").

 

[g.armor]

Disney is well aware that there is a baseline value to all the points, which is what they're worth for 7-month booking. That value is the same for every resort. Then there's the premium for 11-month booking privileges, and that amount varies from resort to resort.

Please explain what you mean by the "premium for 11-month booking privileges." Don't all direct points cost the same, no matter your home resort?

 

[Mystery Fan]

Higher point cost and higher points per reservation for BLT, VGF & Poly for location and 11 month booking exclusivity. Sounds fair to me.

Not surprised to see new points for older resorts going up and resale market rising.

I think Disney's best keep secret is totally out of the bag.

I'm glad I bought a while back and my addonitis is in remission. Since, I own at SSR, I'll take my chances to book at the 7 month window and be happy if I can't get a premium resort location.

The more I think about this subject, the more it feels like DVC Monopoly.

 

[Dean]

I was just thinking about how BLT is more expensive than VGF. Then it dawned on me that DVC is creating a multi-tier "currency" system, hiding the true expensive nature of the resorts.

They have chosen not to sell those points for $200 /pt, making them look "cheap" at $150.

But the "currency rate" for room exchange is different. It's like you still have the same dollar amount in number, but the number needed now is Japanese yen. In other words, you need a lot more points to exchange for the same room.

If they allow VGF to have average point value, then every DVC owner like VB or HH will get the rooms cheap.

With this pattern, Polynesian DVC will be sold at $100 / pt but you need 400 points to exchange for one week stay of a studio room.

While the issue is up for discussion, IMO DVD has not historically used point creep (increasing costs simply by raising points to do so). Every previous change and reallocation could be explained by other means. However, I think GF is a combination of points creep, higher demand and a smaller resort. For GF I really don't think it'll matter much because there will not be a lot of non home resort availability over time. One could also make the argument based on resort dues rather than cost per point. The other factor is it's common to introduce new properties more cheaply than existing current sales. Historically it's been done with the same price per point or higher and a discount, this time they simply eliminated the extra step.

 

[BestDadEver]

I was just thinking about how BLT is more expensive than VGF. Then it dawned on me that DVC is creating a multi-tier "currency" system, hiding the true expensive nature of the resorts.

They have chosen not to sell those points for $200 /pt, making them look "cheap" at $150.

But the "currency rate" for room exchange is different. It's like you still have the same dollar amount in number, but the number needed now is Japanese yen. In other words, you need a lot more points to exchange for the same room.

If they allow VGF to have average point value, then every DVC owner like VB or HH will get the rooms cheap.

With this pattern, Polynesian DVC will be sold at $100 / pt but you need 400 points to exchange for one week stay of a studio room.

They been doing this for a while now with every new resort built . It's easy to see looking at the point charts starting with BLT , and resorts after . The points per room per night are more points with each new resort .

To me they do this to counter inflation , to get people to add more point , and to keep the new resorts from being over booked . They can't raise the points at the old resorts so they raise them for the new resorts ,older members want to stay at these new resorts add on points so they can make reservations at @7months . It's a win win for Disney . And since not everyone will add on or have enough points to cover the difference it keeps the crowds down at the new resorts . It's actually pretty genius plan IMO .

I fully expect poly to be sold at slightly more then GFV . Also think the point values will increase but not like you had mention , just a slight bit . But here is the issue I see , being the GF is the premier resort in WDW I'd like to think that is the reason they are betting such high point for each room . I'd like to think that the poly being the lesser resort (not bad but not how perceived by Disney ) that point per room will come down a bit from GF maybe slightly higher then Aulani .

But guessing by the popularity of the poly , I am sure they could get away with increasing the points per room and the price . Only time will tell .

 

[mmdisneylover]

I was just thinking about how BLT is more expensive than VGF. Then it dawned on me that DVC is creating a multi-tier "currency" system, hiding the true expensive nature of the resorts.

They have chosen not to sell those points for $200 /pt, making them look "cheap" at $150.

But the "currency rate" for room exchange is different. It's like you still have the same dollar amount in number, but the number needed now is Japanese yen. In other words, you need a lot more points to exchange for the same room.

If they allow VGF to have average point value, then every DVC owner like VB or HH will get the rooms cheap.

With this pattern, Polynesian DVC will be sold at $100 / pt but you need 400 points to exchange for one week stay of a studio room.

As far as I'm concerned it doesn't matter where you bought from and when that is the great thing with Dvc. Why should someone that bought back when Dvc started not be allowed to stay at the newer resorts, it's not there fault they weren't dvc resorts back when the bought. Stop worrying about what you can and can't do if you want to book somewhere exclusively then buy there but don't get mad at seven months out when the points come open to everyone that the other people have the option to use them that is what Dvc is about. If you don't like it then I guess you should sell your points and pay out right Dvc is a great thing and why everyone complains about the way it works everyone knew how it worked when they bought it.

 

[OneMoreTry]

The 11 month window doesn't matter that much to me because I don't like to plan that far in advance. We've always been able to get what we want at 7 months. So to me, paying extra for that window isn't necessary.

What would upset me is if I couldn't get my home OKW at 7 mos or less. I suspect less availability at OKW over the past few years is due to SSR owners realizing that OKW is better for less points.

I hope I don't have to start planning all my vacations more than 7 mos out. That's hard because my wife is even worse than me for planning far in advance.