Done the math? Availability.

[WilsonFlyer]

I have seen a lot of posts of late expressing concern about folks being unable to book a resort. Sometimes, it's because of a busy season. Sometimes, it's because of short notice. I've seen other reasons too.

What I'm really wondering is this...

Has anybody ever done the math with regards to should there always be availability in a home/given resort? I'm going under the assumption that if it holds true for one, it should hold true for the entire system. If there's a leak after doing this, we may find a way to do them all if need be.

Let me try to explain, and all of this with the caveat that I believe that there must be FL TS laws in place to assure that too many points can't be sold so that a resort cannot be booked... or are there?

Are the following knowns or can they be figured out? I think I know the answer to some of them but others not so much. You're probably going to see where I'm headed here and probably find something I've missed too.

Let's see if we can figure this out together, if anybody else is interested.

1) How many points TOTAL at BC? Let's use this one for an example because it's older, all points have been sold (at least once anyway) and it's fairly small in the scheme of DVC.

2) How many points does it take to book every room at BC during any given day of any given season? This is going to take a while but if somebody will provide me with the number of each room type, I'll try to do the grunt work here.

3) How many points are traded out during any given month (percentage wise would be the easiest number to obtain, if it's obtainable at all)?

4) What number of points/rooms does DVD hold/own for cash reservations?

5) Let's work 2011 since we have points charts for that. It really shouldn't matter what year we use, in theory.

I'm starting to think that DVC is way more oversold onsite than we have maybe been led to believe. I'd like to know if it's true or not.

Anybody else interested in working on this or want to lead me in the right direction? What did I miss? I'm sure I missed a lot because I'm composing this on the fly instead of methodically thinking it out, which I will do later.

Let's try to figure out the things I've missed and then run the numbers.

Might be an interesting exercise. Ya think?

 

[hakepb]

It would be very,very interesting to see the real numbers.

I tend to think that the "availability" could just be more of:
1) A little more borrowing than banking. (With just that, it is possible for members wanting to book 101% of the resort every year
2) Isolated days based on various check-in check out. If there is an occasional open 2BR or GV..it kinda becomes a lot of unusable points.

And there are minor factors like every calendar year has slightly different number of points (week days vs weekend, Christmas on a weekday or weekend..)
And with more information, more members use or rent more of their points..
It could of been a few late availability people were booking the last room or 2 (99.5% booked), now its 100%, not a huge difference

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I have a theory, hakepb, and it's just that, a theory at this point.

I'm guessing that of all the resales we see, many, many of them are from people that don't know about DIS and are just looking to dump their DVC interests. I know some of it is for financial reasons. I get that. I further believe that many of them are frustrated because they can't book 3,4,5 months out. For this reason, it just didn't turn out to be what they thought it was.

I sort of fall in the same boat. I didn't know any better either until I discovered DIS. We all know about 11 and 7 but I suspect most members don't and for sure, they certainly don't really understand/get it, if you know what I mean. It's not their fault. It's just not part of the marketing speil for obvious reasons.

Because of my schedule, I have a hard time booking over 4-6 months out. It's just me, but I've learned to live with it and since I own at AKK, I can usually get in there, but I also own at BLT and I can NEVER get in there. It's frustrating. It must be nice for all of you that can live your lives 11 months out but I just can't. I don't mean that statement as offensive, it doesn't fit my lifestyle.

Alas, I digress. That's not really the point of this thread, is it?

I really want to know how oversold the points are. I'm betting it's way more oversold than I want to think. Again, I'm hoping and betting there are laws and regulations on the books to prevent this, but I'd like to see the numbers myself.

I know we've discussed this on here before but I would think that the Association should be responsible to us to report these types of things but it doesn't seem that they report anything to us, really. Where's the public record of these types of things? Certainly, we are essentially part of a sort of HOA that has to report various numbers to us or at least make them available to us upon request. I guess it's a Disney thing. {shrugs}

 

[dzorn]

Let me try to explain, and all of this with the caveat that I believe that there must be FL TS laws in place to assure that too many points can't be sold so that a resort cannot be booked... or are there?

Yes Florida does have a TS law they cannot sell more point than there are to use in a year.

Denise in MI

 

[WilsonFlyer]

Yes Florida does have a TS law they cannot sell more point than there are to use in a year.

Denise in MI

Then the numbers should support that, right? I'd like to see them myself, but I can't do it without help.

If it's a law, there has to be public record proving, or at least attempting to prove, DVD's compliance somewhere.

 

[dzorn]

Then the numbers should support that, right? I'd like to see them myself, but I can't do it without help.

If it's a law, there has to be public record proving, or at least attempting to prove, DVD's compliance somewhere.

I am sure there is just not sure how you go about getting it or why it would be even worth the trouble.

There is also factors you will not be able to find. For example how many 2 bedroom lockoff are assigned to the base year vs how many were done as 1-bed and studios.



Denise in MI

 

[CMOORE185]

Good luck with your exercise, but I see no difference booking now than I did 11 years ago when I first purchased.

 

[chalee94]

Then the numbers should support that, right? I'd like to see them myself, but I can't do it without help.

If it's a law, there has to be public record proving, or at least attempting to prove, DVD's compliance somewhere.

yep, you should be able to schedule an appointment at the DVC HQ in celebration and look over the books. it doesn't sound like fun but you have the right to do it if you want.

the breakdown is in the "DVC Resource Center" thread in the sticky above:

BCV - 36 Dedicated Studios - 20 Dedicated 1Bdrm - 78 Dedicated 2Bdrm - 74 Lockoffs - 0 Grand Villas = 208 Units / 282 Max. Available Rooms

keep in mind that their may have been more banking in the last year or so as people rode out the recession and waited to make sure their job was stable before heading to wdw. and if rooms go unused during jan/feb, it follows that some owners may not be able to book during the rest of the year - that's simply how it goes even if there are only enough pts issued for everyone to use their pts..."you snooze, you lose" if your timeshare period is not fixed.

several posters broke out their calculators a few years ago to verify that the total pts required for each resort for the year was virtually the same before and after the reallocations.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

There is no legal way that Disney Vacation Development (DVD) could sell more DVC points than there is capacity -- just as a conventional weeks-based timeshare can only sell the 50 or 51 annual weeks per condo (with 1 or 2 weeks for maintenance). A developer who sells 60 or 70 annual weeks per condo would be in violation of timeshare law, and might even wind up in prison.

That does not mean that there will always be availability when any owner wants to stay. However, there is enough availability to allow every owner to stay. With a system like DVC that includes banking and borrowing, it gets a bit more complicated. Fortunately, some DVC members forget to use some or all of their points some years, so that provides a bit more breathing room.

Do you remember when televangelist Jim Bakker was convicted of overselling timeshares at Heritage USA and sentenced to 45 years in prison? (He only served a fraction of that.)

 

[wdrl]

I can furnish some of the information you are looking for.

In April 2011, I posted information on the distribution of points by Use Year for all the DVC resorts except Villas of Grand California and Aulani (see http://dvcnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1557&Itemid=1). The charts show the total points for the nine resorts. Although I don't have the distribution of points by Use Year for Aulani, I know that the total number of DVC points allotted for Aulani is 11,518,422.

BLT is the only resort for which I'm confident that I know the number of points owned by the public and the number of points owned by DVD (see http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2212548). For BLT, I have tracked the points allotted, the points sold to the public, the points unsold, and the points reacquired by DVD via foreclosures, ROFRs, and other buybacks. See http://dvcnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1580&Itemid=1 for more information. I am in the process of compiling similar data for AKV and should have it published by the end of the month.

I have not attempted to identify the number of points owned by DVD at the other resorts. The Master Declaration at each resort states that DVD must retain at least 2% of the points. The OKW Master Declaration also stated that DVD must retain 2%, but mentioned that DVD may, at its discretion, decide to hold at least 4%.

When the point reallocations were done for 2011, I determined the reallocations were "point neutral." I looked at the number of points that it required to book all the villas at VWL and BWV for the entire calendar year of 2010 and compared it to 2011 using the reallocated point charts. The differences were negligible: -0.1293% for VWL and -0.1321% for BWV.

I have yet to see anything in the filings made by DVD with the Orange County Comptroller that would lead me to believe DVD has oversold points at a resort. In fact, there are reasons for me to believe that DVD does more than it is required to do so accommodate the DVC membership.

It will be difficult to answer your questions without access to DVD management information. Keep in mind that the Vacation Club is a dynamic system: Members are banking and borrowing, doing exchanges to the Disney Collection, RCI, etc, as well as letting points expire. Thus, it would be very difficult to know how many points are actually in use for any given Use Day.

Good luck in trying to answer your questions!

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I guess since it's Disney, they must be 100% in compliance, right? Isn't that what got this country in the mess we're in to begin with?

 

[Sammie]

I guess since it's Disney, they must be 100% in compliance, right? Isn't that what got this country in the mess we're in to begin with?

Until recently I would have said they were in compliance, with the situation recently I am not so sure about anything being in compliance right now.

 

[htmlkid]

So heres a question... if BLT is now 100% DVC does that mean that there should be no available rentals available to the public at BLT's and if there is, shouldn't that money be allociated back to the DVC owners at the property in the way of lower MF's???

Also what stops Disney from renting units allociated toDVC owners of a resort..after all ... all you know is that nothing is available.... you don't really know if its occupied by a DVC owner or a public renter.

 

[mrsR123]

So heres a question... if BLT is now 100% DVC does that mean that there should be no available rentals available to the public at BLT's and if there is, shouldn't that money be allociated back to the DVC owners at the property in the way of lower MF's???

Also what stops Disney from renting units allociated toDVC owners of a resort..after all ... all you know is that nothing is available.... you don't really know if its occupied by a DVC owner or a public renter.

It doesn't mean that. Having it at 100% means that all the inventory that is intended for members' ownership and therefore use has been declared usable. There will always be the small percentage-- apparently 2%-- that DVD will own. There will also always be points that can be rented via CRO as a result of members' out of system transfers.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

So heres a question... if BLT is now 100% DVC does that mean that there should be no available rentals available to the public at BLT's and if there is, shouldn't that money be allociated back to the DVC owners at the property in the way of lower MF's???

Also what stops Disney from renting units allociated toDVC owners of a resort..after all ... all you know is that nothing is available.... you don't really know if its occupied by a DVC owner or a public renter.

There can and will continue to be be rentals available to the public. It's just that the primary source of the rental inventory was been changing over time as inventory has bee declared "into the condominium" (into the DVC member ownership pool).

Originally, the primary source of rental nights was undeclared inventory. Disney Vacation Development built the resort, owned most of the inventory and paid dues on it -- so they had every right to rent out through CRO.

Over time, the inventory has been declared into DVC (but Disney will always own a small percentage).

Now, the primary source of rental inventory comes from DVC members who book DCL cruises, other Disney Collection vacations, Adventurer Collection, and Concierge Collection. They're using their points, but they're not staying at a DVC resort. Inventory corresponding to the points they used is rented out through through CRO. That's where the money comes from to pay for those non-DVC vacations.

DVC point inventory and CRO's rental inventory are two different pools of inventory. DVC Member Services can't book DVC point nights that are controlled by CRO, and CRO can't rent out nights that are controlled by DVC.

 

[hakepb]

BLT owners pay DVD to maintain a 2-3% inventory of units to use for maintenance and/or refurbs (although they may be heavily using that for studio refurbs)
I think the biggest question is trade-out. If a member uses 500 points for a cruise, does CRO get a specific week (or 2..) 500 point room or do they get a choice of week A, B, C... And how does that impact member availability?

 

[earthelves]

There can and will continue to be be rentals available to the public. It's just that the primary source of the rental inventory was been changing over time as inventory has bee declared "into the condominium" (into the DVC member ownership pool).

Originally, the primary source of rental nights was undeclared inventory. Disney Vacation Development built the resort, owned most of the inventory and paid dues on it -- so they had every right to rent out through CRO.

Over time, the inventory has been declared into DVC (but Disney will always own a small percentage).

Now, the primary source of rental inventory comes from DVC members who book DCL cruises, other Disney Collection vacations, Adventurer Collection, and Concierge Collection. They're using their points, but they're not staying at a DVC resort. Inventory corresponding to the points they used is rented out through through CRO. That's where the money comes from to pay for those non-DVC vacations.

DVC point inventory and CRO's rental inventory are two different pools of inventory. DVC Member Services can't book DVC point nights that are controlled by CRO, and CRO can't rent out nights that are controlled by DVC.

Is this why "Value Studio @ AKL Jambo House" is available to book through CRO? I am somewhat surprised to see this "Room" available over Christmas/Newyear with availability through CRO,I would have thought that ALL Value studios for Christmas/Newyear will have been by now snapped up by DVC Members?

 

[crisi]

They are required to have an outside auditor, and that auditor would get in huge issues if the total # of points sold were greater than the number of points needed to book room nights.

But that doesn't mean a room will ALWAYS be available. It isn't really math, its statistics. If we ALL decide to go for Christmas this year, we've skewed the distribution. And that is the problem. There are times of year where there is lots of available, even short notice. And times of year where you need to book early. That is simply a distribution issue, not a total number of points issue.

As to value studios, Disney lists almost all DVC to CRO rooms as "value" rooms and then almost always "upgrades" them. This makes sure that members have the most flexibility while CRO guests don't get a downgrade. Its like DCL where they sell more category 12 r4ooms than they have.

 

[wdrl]

BLT owners pay DVD to maintain a 2-3% inventory of units to use for maintenance and/or refurbs (although they may be heavily using that for studio refurbs)

It might be a matter of semantics, but BLT owners do not "pay" DVD to maintain an inventory to use for maintenance and/or refurbs. There is nothing in the Master Declaration that requires that DVD use its Ownership Interest for maintenance and refurbs. In fact, the Master Declaration states that all Home Resort Vacation Points assigned to DVD in connection with its Ownership Interests will be governed by the same rules and regulations pertaining to all Club Members. In other words, DVD is treated as any other Club Member in using its points.

I think the biggest question is trade-out. If a member uses 500 points for a cruise, does CRO get a specific week (or 2..) 500 point room or do they get a choice of week A, B, C... And how does that impact member availability?

If a Club Member uses 500 points to book a cruise with DCL for the first week in June 2012, I suspect that 500 points worth of accommodations are then assigned to CRO for cash reservations. I doubt that CRO is obligated to use those 500 points only during the first week in June 2012; rather, I suspect that CRO can use those points for cash reservations as long as the points have not expired.

If a Club Member exchanges 500 points for a DCL cruise, it does not adversely impact other Members' access to Club accommodations. Keep in mind that if the Club Member was not using their points on a cruise, they would be using those points to book accommodations at a DVC resort. Whether I'm competing against the actual Club Member or against a CRO cash reservation, the impact on my ability to secure a reservation is the same.

Is this why "Value Studio @ AKL Jambo House" is available to book through CRO? I am somewhat surprised to see this "Room" available over Christmas/Newyear with availability through CRO,I would have thought that ALL Value studios for Christmas/Newyear will have been by now snapped up by DVC Members?

The Master Declaration is very specific that the percentage of a DVC resort that can be booked by Club Members using points on any given Use Day cannot exceed the percentage of the resort that has been declared for the DVC inventory. At AKV, only 72.54% of the resort has been declared -- the rest is owned by DVD. However, the Master Declaration is silent on how this 72.54%/27.46% split is managed. It could be that Members are permitted to book whatever accommodations they want -- Value, Standard, Savanna, Concierge, studios, one-bedrooms, two-bedrooms, Grand Villas -- as long as the total points for any Use Day does not exceed 72.54%. Or it could be that the DVC/DVD split is maintained for some or all of the accommodation categories. Thus, DVD could retain 27.46% of certain categories. If Club Members use their entire allocation to book savanna villas, Grand Villas, and Concierge Level villas, then whatever is left must fall into DVD's inventory for that particular Use Day.

 

[earthelves]

They are required to have an outside auditor, and that auditor would get in huge issues if the total # of points sold were greater than the number of points needed to book room nights.

But that doesn't mean a room will ALWAYS be available. It isn't really math, its statistics. If we ALL decide to go for Christmas this year, we've skewed the distribution. And that is the problem. There are times of year where there is lots of available, even short notice. And times of year where you need to book early. That is simply a distribution issue, not a total number of points issue.

As to value studios, Disney lists almost all DVC to CRO rooms as "value" rooms and then almost always "upgrades" them. This makes sure that members have the most flexibility while CRO guests don't get a downgrade. Its like DCL where they sell more category 12 r4ooms than they have.

Well i would sure be a "Happy Camper" if i happened to book a "Value Room" & was upgraded upon check in I wonder IF all the Value Studios at AKL Jambo have really already been booked out for Christmas/Newyear by D.V.C members? I would expect so But then the "Cash Paying Guest" could be assigned the "Value Room" & the D.V.C member could get the "Upgrade"