Direct pricing fluctuations

[WeIcomeHome]

Historically, has the best direct pricing/ incentives been at initial offering of new resorts or have later promotions after say 12+ months provided greater discounts? I'm in the market to buy early 2024 and trying to determine if I decide to buy direct if I need to be ready to buy right when poly2 is offered or if it pays to wait.

 

[Doberge]

Someone will correct me if wrong but usually the best prices are whwm first released. It is always when the base price is lowest but then incentives will fluctuate. There's no real incentive pattern, and that is intention so people like us don't sit and wait for a known big upcoming deal. So while usually the lowest price to get in as at the beginning, Riviera's lowest prices were during the pandemic and I believe VGF's best was after the internal offering (when incentives were increased due to likely lower than projected sales from initial offer).

 

[havoc315]

The lowest price is usually the initial incentivized price. I wouldn't ever count on prices being lower in the future. If anything, by waiting, you end up paying more for fewer years.
At the same time, we are seeing a lot of volatility in the market now. Disney may have finally hit a point where they created too much supply, priced too high. So the historical trends are not guaranteed to hold in the future. It's possible that Disney goes through a price correction given the extremely weak sales recently.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Unless there’s a some freak event like a pandemic or a global financial crisis, I agree with everyone else, expect the day 1 net price to be the best you’ll get - and if it ever does get beat, it won’t be by much.

 

[pianomanzano]

Apart from what's been mentioned, if there's sluggish sales they may provide some temporary incentives that beat previous ones, but that doesn't happen often. For example, current members could purchase 200 RIV points in Fall 2021 for $184pp, while last summer it dropped to $176pp.

 

[sethschroeder]

Apart from what's been mentioned, if there's sluggish sales they may provide some temporary incentives that beat previous ones, but that doesn't happen often. For example, current members could purchase 200 RIV points in Fall 2021 for $184pp, while last summer it dropped to $176pp.

Thing is you quite possibly lost a year of points. So would you pay $8 for a point out of the gate? I would for something I could use right away.

 

[pianomanzano]

Thing is you quite possibly lost a year of points. So would you pay $8 for a point out of the gate? I would for something I could use right away.

I agree, I’m just providing info for OP about the potential for prices to be lower.

 

[WeIcomeHome]

Thanks for all the replies. You have confirmed my assumptions. Before posting I found the historical data on initial price points due each resort but couldn't find a similar aggregated list on how incentives fluctuated over time.

 

[pianomanzano]

Thanks for all the replies. You have confirmed my assumptions. Before posting I found the historical data on initial price points due each resort but couldn't find a similar aggregated list on how incentives fluctuated over time.

DVCnews.com does a good job of reporting out the latest incentives.

 

[Stank]

Several reasons why sales price charts tend to be from bottom left, up, and to the right, over time—most have been mentioned. Other reasons for the best price to be the initial price is to capitalize on FOMO and create the urgency of the need to buy today vs. tomorrow. If you discount after initial buyers you also risk alienating that group. It’s similar to housing where new developments want a positive increase from Day 0. They don’t want to stagnate a development with potential buyers deferring and current owners souring on a loss.

If DVC is truly pitched as a “lock in today’s hotel prices for 50 years…” then I would argue steeper incentives are ahead, if you want to speculate on a unique situation that runs counter-trend. Disney Visa cardholders are being offered 35% discounts on rooms at most Deluxe properties. The Contemporary was going for around $1000 for a standard room just a few months ago; I just saw availability at $400 for this promotion. Granted these weren’t the same dates, but the $1000 room I was looking at a few months ago wasn’t over a holiday period.

I think resale is following more closely to the current events as the hotels are, and why Disney is discounting rooms that essentially “expire” within the next several months vs. DVC Direct that have 45-50 years left. Regardless, I think Disney will offer a unique window with heavier incentives while maintaining an artificial price “rack rate” for Direct. A $217 contract may be incentive-laden, which is what Disney does. Keep the list price but add sweeteners for the sale, and allow the sweeteners to roll off.

 

[CarolMN]

Disney Visa cardholders are being offered 35% discounts on rooms at most Deluxe properties.

That discount was frequently offered pre-pandemic - especially during the late spring & summer. I wouldn't read too much into that.

 

[SL6827]

That discount was frequently offered pre-pandemic - especially during the late spring & summer. I wouldn't read too much into that.

I think it is the temps in the summer.

 

[Stank]

That discount was frequently offered pre-pandemic - especially during the late spring & summer. I wouldn't read too much into that.

I get that, but this is the largest discount in some time, and availability seems greater. Most of the time whenever I look for a room discount, “my dates aren’t available.” And usually the available
discounts are for premium rooms, not the rock-bottom ones.

Maybe they’ll get filled up promptly and it’s nothing. But this sizable of a discount after a discount drought + availability may hint to more. I don’t remember the last time seeing Contemporary for $400/night.

 

[SL6827]

I get that, but this is the largest discount in some time, and availability seems greater. Most of the time whenever I look for a room discount, “my dates aren’t available.” And usually the available
discounts are for premium rooms, not the rock-bottom ones.

Maybe they’ll get filled up promptly and it’s nothing. But this sizable of a discount after a discount drought + availability may hint to more. I don’t remember the last time seeing Contemporary for $400/night.

I think the summer discounts are here too stay. Disney just can't do anything about those temps.