I have not idea when they release room rates. However, We're going Dec 2-6th this year. We were able to use a PIN code and our rate is 152.10 weekdays, 165.10 weekends. I wouldn't count on getting a rate quite that low, though that's about what we've paid during most trips - or even lower years ago. So, if you budget 200 per a night, I'd think you would be fine. (We do a standard two bed room).
Though we used a PIN code - and actually were mailed a different PIN code with a different discount that we could have used instead - you can't count on getting a PIN code. However, both the longer staying rate (I think it's called stay more save more) and the annual passholder discounts were also options during that time this year.