I agree with everyone who is saying not on your arrival day here is what I factor in when making plans
1. What is my airline's on time percentage between the 2 points including any layover points. This will be on the airlines website if you click on the flight number and then on flight information details it will list carrier flight number arrives from time arrives to time equipment type flight duration distance in miles and performance data which will read something like on time 81% +30 minutes 7% +60 minutes n/a for example (this is the performance for the past 30 days for the airline that I would use from my home airport most of the time I fly from the hub airport I would use most of the time into MCO) on time is within 15 minutes, 30 minutes means the flight is on the ground 30 minutes after the scheduled time so in your case if you land anytime prior to 5:16 to 5:31 it is on time and from 5:32 to 5:46
2. How many other flights are scheduled to land around the same time at the airport. For MCO this can be found here but it is a very limited time you can see
https://orlandoairports.net/flights. If there are 3 flights scheduled to land at the same time and another 4-5 in time slots within 5-10 minutes either direction the chances of having to wait to get to the gate is increased over a flight landing at a time when very few flights are coming in or leaving.
3. Once the plane is at the gate you need to factor in time to get off-this is going to vary depending on where you are sitting and how much carry on luggage you have. If you just have an under the seat item it is going to take less time than if you have to get anything out of the overhead.
4. Factor in time to walk into the terminal from the door of the plane, locate and use a restroom. This is especially vital if your flight has gone over any mountain ranges or the gulf because those tend to have more of a chance for turbulence and thus the seat belt sign is being kept on. In our 4 hour and 38 minute flight we had maybe 40 minutes all flight that everyone could use the restroom between take off and getting to cruising altitude, 2 times of 3 carts in the aisle, snack drink, collect trash, preparing for landing, and 2 times of turbulence.
5. Then you have to factor in getting to the main building from the terminal building and down to the DME desk which if your airline uses the other side is going to involve crossing sides.
6. How long are you going to wait for DME to leave the airport grounds
7. Time to get to your resort and what number you are on the list. Figure that there could be 4 resorts and that the bus will stop at each one for 10 minutes
8. Time to get off the bus, get any carry on items from under the bus (there is not room for much more than a day pack at your feet on the bus) and get to your room in order to drop off your items
9. If your not dining at your resort time to get there including walking to where you can get transportation, waiting for transportation, time to get from your resort to the location and time to check in if it is a table service location.
A rundown of my numbers (yours may vary)
1. I plan for my flight to be 90 minutes late to start running total in minutes 90
2. I figure 10 minutes to the gate running total 100
3. I plan for 10 minutes to get off the plane 110
4 Another 10 minutes to get into the terminal and use the restroom and exit 120 minutes
5. Add in another 10 minutes to get to DME (I happen to know my airline uses the same side but if I ever got the bright idea to use an airline out of my area that uses the other side I would add 5 to this-not going to happen because this particular airline has an 8-10 hour layover followed by an overnight red eye flight). Now at 130 minutes
6. Factor in 20 minutes for DME to leave because if your in a rush you will end up missing the one before and have to wait for a full bus to leave 150
7. 75 minutes to get to my resort broken down as 30 minutes to Disney property using google map numbers, 3 stops of 10 minutes each and 15 minutes to allow for any traffic delays and possible detours 205 minutes
8. 15 minutes to get off the bus, get my belongings from under and to my room 220 minutes
9. 5 minutes to get to transportation, 10 minutes to wait, 20 minutes there, another 10 minute walk plus 10 minutes early to check in for 55 minutes and a total of 275 minutes which translates to 4 hours and 35 minutes though to be on the safe side I would factor in 5 hours.
Considering the flight I would normally use lands around 4:30 PM the earliest I would make an ADR is for 9:30 PM and trust me after having been up for 15.5 hours that is not going to happen. By the time you eat and get back to the room figure that it is 2 hours later.