Crowd predictor?

[MICHELET]

Would you go with days that have lower crowd predictions on Touring Plans or days that have big ride (FoP and SDD) fastpass availability? Hoping for lower crowds.

 

[CAS239]

Your first goal should be FP availability, the if you want to put any stock into a crowd calendar then go with that after

 

[DizneyMommy]

FP availability for sure. We did not go with the lowest day for any of our June trip, just because it did not work out with FP and ADR's.

 

[hereforthechurros]

FPs for sure. Crowds for our upcoming trip show 9/10 but we were able to get every FP we wanted so it allowed us to build a good plan and get out of the parks by mid afternoon each day. Last trip crowd calendars showed 4/10 but we had a heck of a time getting FPs and crowds wound up being insane anyway.

 

[MICHELET]

Thank you for the replies. I thought the same thing. It seems like there may be lower crowds on days that there are still big fastpasses left. It has been confusing because Touring Plans thinks one time we are looking at (7/8-7/10) will be 5, 6 and 7 crowd levels (with no big fastpasses left) and the other time (7/18-7/20) as 8, 9 and 10 (with several big fastpasses left). The fastpass availabilty has to be a sign that it will be less crowds than the other days.

 

[Jadyreen1282]

This was supposed to be a low crowd day at MK in January...nope. We left and went to California Grill for drinks and had a better time.

 

[Upatnoon]

Would you go with days that have lower crowd predictions on Touring Plans or days that have big ride (FoP and SDD) fastpass availability? Hoping for lower crowds.

The only thing that really matters now is Fast Pass and rope drop. After the morning wears off, the park is packed and all the headliners have long lines until close to close.

"Low" crowds helps make it easier to get around the park, but won't help on headliners.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Thank you for the replies. I thought the same thing. It seems like there may be lower crowds on days that there are still big fastpasses left. It has been confusing because Touring Plans thinks one time we are looking at (7/8-7/10) will be 5, 6 and 7 crowd levels (with no big fastpasses left) and the other time (7/18-7/20) as 8, 9 and 10 (with several big fastpasses left). The fastpass availabilty has to be a sign that it will be less crowds than the other days.

If I understand your post right, the time you're looking at has only recently been open to resort guests for FPs. The resort guests are not the biggest population in the parks each day so all it would tell you now is how full up the resorts are. Other things could affect how many off-site, last minute on-site, and locals will be in the parks. I would say the resort info is interesting but may not be very good at predicting what the final crowd level will look like. Looking after 30 days has opened up might tell you a little bit more. You can look at availability for the mountains, TT, and Soarin, etc. But even then, when we went many headliners were only available late in the day but crowds were very good so unless you've been looking at the trends and comparing to how crowded people are reporting those days are later, it's kind of hard to judge what it's telling you.

Oh and looking at your post again, it's hard to compare different weeks because the later one Will have more availability because it's later. I saw that when I was looking even in the one week time we were going to be there. The last Sat we were going to be there in MK had better availability than the Thurs before it for MK. But that was just because it was later and people were slowly picking up their FPs right until the day before. The crowds that day were higher than the Thurs as you would expect for a Sat in MK.

 

[KenHutch]

Fast Pass all the way. I have Touring Plans and I like it but in the last 6 months I have seen days they predicted as a 4 go to 9 and yet when I made my Fast Pass selections I had to trouble in getting what I wanted. I know all these companies work hard but in the end a prediction is really just a good guess but on circumstances in each park.

 

[DisneyFive]

Where are you going to see FP availability for big rides?

Dan

 

[gharter]

Touring Plans crowd predicter used to be really good. The last 2 trips, even the low days seem to be crowded, and a few weks before the trip, the crowd level weems to really jump.
Now we make sure we rope drop and have our FPs. After that, its anyones guess as to how the day goes.

 

[shocker]

The only thing that really matters now is Fast Pass and rope drop. After the morning wears off, the park is packed and all the headliners have long lines until close to close.

Yep, 3 strategies for headliners with less waiting.

1. FP+
2. Rope Drop (with EMH preferred).
3. Closing time.

Use one, none, or all of them, your choice. But here's a few thoughts:
1. Everyone CAN get a FP and most will, even day of. Some will set an alarm & book 60 days or more out, others at 30 days out. Some will be too confused (I still stand in the park & overhear people discussing how they can't use FP+ because they didn't pay for it), not tech savvy, aren't planners, didn't book enough in advance to know, just plain don't know they exist and will not get full advantage. Some will not know you can, not know how, or not bother to get a 4th, 5th, 6th...FP+.

2. Read it here in the threads, talk with your friends & neighbors, but most people WILL NOT get up in time to make it to ANY rope drop while on vacation and even fewer will make it to an AM EMH. Even if gobs of people do show up for AM EMH just know its a small % to those who COULD, they simply won't. (This summer we will have 7am RD for us, we will have to start our day in the 5 o'clock hour, glad to trade for the heat & crowds later in the day-that crowd is welcomed to it.) Another benefit to EMH is no FP's during that hour, so no one will be cutting in front of you effecting your wait time. This will not be the case if you RD a non-EMH park, any FP ride you go to first thing will have interruptions to line traffic flow.

3. Again, there's an entire group of people that WILL NOT stay til closing, small kids, too tired, want to leave for dinner, etc. You are allowed to get in line up until official closing time, you don't have to be out of the park by closing time. A CM will let you know if you're too late, otherwise get in line. Again, after official closing time, no more FP interruptions and the lines move much more swiftly. Also, they tend to report higher wait times so you won't head over to it. I've waited 20 min. to ride TSMM at close, when the reported wait time was 90 min. The line is indoors so you don't know how inaccurate it is until you go inside. If you see 90 min. you'll think how tired you are & just leave.

Have a great trip & hope you're able to use all 3 above strategies.