Crowd Levels January 11-16

[robinbutterfly]

Have the crowd levels been predicted anywhere for the week of January 11th?

 

[Todd&Copper]

touringplans.com puts up the free crowd calendar predictions one month in advance, so look there.

 

[robinbutterfly]

ok I just looked that up, Thanks... but I don't get how they determine the best park and worst park to visit for each day.
Does anyone know?

 

[United544]

ok I just looked that up, Thanks... but I don't get how they determine the best park and worst park to visit for each day.
Does anyone know?

They're posted in the crowd calendar at touringplans.com: http://www.touringplans.com/tp2/UG2_index.php?PageID=14

You could also use RIDEMAX, but that's a subscription service (which so far seems to be worth the cost to me)

http://www.ridemax.com/

- Chris

 

[robinbutterfly]

They're posted in the crowd calendar at touringplans.com: http://www.touringplans.com/tp2/UG2_index.php?PageID=14

You could also use RIDEMAX, but that's a subscription service (which so far seems to be worth the cost to me)

http://www.ridemax.com/

- Chris

I understand where it is located. I just don't understand how they determine which is a good park to go to on a certain day and which one is not a good one to go to on a certain day. What criteria are they basing this on?

 

[POB14]

I understand where it is located. I just don't understand how they determine which is a good park to go to on a certain day and which one is not a good one to go to on a certain day. What criteria are they basing this on?

From the same page the crowd calendar is on:

Data we use to determine the best days for each park include:

Actual wait time statistics gathered in the parks
Our own counting of guests in Disney's parks
Disney's Extra Magic Hours schedule
Special events calendars
U.S. legal holidays
Outside sources (e.g., the U.S. Department of Transportation, Consumer Reports, etc.)
Some of these data, such as historical park hours, Disney's Extra Magic Hours schedule, and U.S. legal holidays, are widely available on the Internet. Other data, such as public school schedules, are available, but not from a single source (we had to look up each school's calendar individually). The more detailed data, including hotel occupancy rates and government statistics, require not only access, but fairly sophisticated analysis. And some data, such as wait times, we had to get ourselves.

They also explain, later down on the page, that "best" sometimes means "least bad," and vice versa; that they try to make each park "best" at least once a week, so vacationers can go to all the parks, and more. There's a long article there with a lot of information about this.

ETA: We're going to be there a couple of days of that week too. Hoping for both of us that it's not too crowded!

 

[Mr. & Mrs. Smith]

We will be there from the 10th to the 17th. Might see you around and not even know it.

 

[Mad Hattered]

The parks to "avoid" on TG are based on EMH. Typically there are many more people attending the park those days when they have EMH. The wife and I will be there the 13th thru the 18th. I just hope the days are 4's and 5's like they are predicting!

 

[Condorman]

TG suggestions are, for the most part, contradictory and bogus. It's just another in a long line of Disney parasites that claim they have the answer when they don't have a clue. The only organization that could tell you how busy or slow the parks will be is Disney itself -- only they know the occupancy of their resorts, how many ADRs have been made, etc.

Furthermore, go to TG's site @ http://www.touringplans.com/tp2/UG2_index.php?PageID=14

In the first chart for "Crowd Level Calendar" they have consistently posted DS as the park to avoid on Saturdays. But then scroll down to "Unofficial Guide Crowd Counting Results" and they have the shortest wait times for DS as... Saturday! How is that possible? Didn't they even proof-read their own website or are they purposely giving us the truth and lies all at once? We have always gone to DS on Saturdays (EMH) and ride TSMM 2x, RnR 2x and ToT 1x before 9:30a, before the regular (non-resort) crowds come rushing in. Saturdays are a great time to go to DS. TG won't tell you that. I suppose I should be grateful.

TG's suggestions are just that, recommendations. They can no more predict a "9" at Epcot for January than a meteorologist can predict a sunny sky over Detriot in March from December.

 

[POB14]

TG suggestions are, for the most part, contradictory and bogus. [snip]

Furthermore, go to TG's site @ http://www.touringplans.com/tp2/UG2_index.php?PageID=14

That's UG's site. Is that what you mean by TG?

In the first chart for "Crowd Level Calendar" they have consistently posted DS as the park to avoid on Saturdays. But then scroll down to "Unofficial Guide Crowd Counting Results" and they have the shortest wait times for DS as... Saturday! How is that possible? .

As they post on their site, Saturday is a good day for ALL the parks, and DS has shorter waits EVERY day than the other parks. Maybe they should just have listed DS as the best park every day, but they don't do it that way. Somebody has to be listed as "worst park" every day, so for Saturday, they pick parks when "good days" are more rare, and leave DS for the days when other parks are swamped. (In other words - DS is a good choice any day, but MK is only good on some days, so if MK is good, avoid DS.)

Why the vitriol against the UG, anyway?

 

[griz_fan]

TG suggestions are, for the most part, contradictory and bogus. It's just another in a long line of Disney parasites that claim they have the answer when they don't have a clue. The only organization that could tell you how busy or slow the parks will be is Disney itself -- only they know the occupancy of their resorts, how many ADRs have been made, etc.

Furthermore, go to TG's site @ http://www.touringplans.com/tp2/UG2_index.php?PageID=14

In the first chart for "Crowd Level Calendar" they have consistently posted DS as the park to avoid on Saturdays. But then scroll down to "Unofficial Guide Crowd Counting Results" and they have the shortest wait times for DS as... Saturday! How is that possible? Didn't they even proof-read their own website or are they purposely giving us the truth and lies all at once? We have always gone to DS on Saturdays (EMH) and ride TSMM 2x, RnR 2x and ToT 1x before 9:30a, before the regular (non-resort) crowds come rushing in. Saturdays are a great time to go to DS. TG won't tell you that. I suppose I should be grateful.

TG's suggestions are just that, recommendations. They can no more predict a "9" at Epcot for January than a meteorologist can predict a sunny sky over Detriot in March from December.

I think you're putting way too much emphasis on their recommendations for which day to visit. While it is an important factor, the Touring Plans site clearly states that it is far more important to arrive early with a plan, which it sounds like you clearly did. If you visit the link you posted and scroll down to the section called "How Important Is Choosing the Right Day?" From that section:

So what does this tell us? According to our data, the attractions you visit and the time of day at which you visit them will have the greatest influence on how long you wait. On the other hand, the day of week and the weather will play only a small role. Statistically speaking, the time of day is 5 times more important than the day of the week.

Put another way, a good touring plan is much more important than choosing the right day to visit the parks.​

I think your assessment of these people is way too harsh. For someone who's never been to WDW, such as myself, they provide very valuable information, and their crowd level predictions really only serve to help emphasize the importance of some planning and getting to the parks early.