Countdown to 200,000 DIS Members

[UrsulasShadow]

I totally can't get this to work. Tell me...what is my number?

2798

 

[jcb]

December 2, 2008 at 7:28 pm (12 hours later than last projection)

There were 88 new members (total 198,918) over the last 24 hours.

 

[jcb]

Off the topic of the "estimate" I thought I would note that the member number at the end of the URL doesn't always equal the order in which a member joins.

You can see this by the most recent new member is number 198,968 but the number at the end of the url shows him (or her) as 218608.

Don't let this ruin the fun.

 

[jcb]

Surprising - only 72 new members today. What is wrong with these people?

 

[megveg]

I am number 184161 and I've told all my Dis loving Friends to help to reach 200,000

 

[jcb]

946 to go - 64 new members

 

[Stacy's a freak]

WHOA! The gang should definitely let the 200,000th person pick a number!

(#48901)

 

[Becx N Gav]

This is fantastic

I could never do the math myself

 

[Chrissie-riel]

I'm so bad...I have been absent from the DIS for a while now. But, this is very cool! Congrats and thanks to Pete and the team for having such a large community for us all to enjoy. I'll get out the popcorn and keep checking back to see who our "honored" new member is!

 

[jcb]

80 new members (199,134 total). Slipping later by 5 hours.

Would be nice to get there before 12/6/08 without stuffing (as in the ballot box, that is).

And for those who commented on the math, that is easy, relatively - members to go divided by members per day. The difficult part is picking the accurate data for members per day. I guess that is true of everything.

And I don't think the 200,000th member should get to pick a number. Maybe the most accurate guess as to when 200,000 arrives should get to pick. Oh, wait a minute, I guess that is pretty self-serving.

Never mind. . . .

 

[jcb]

A good day - 88 new members (778 to get to 200,000). Moved the time up (sooner) by 40 minutes from yesterday.

 

[lablady]

Well, I've been lurking and became ADDICTED to the podcast! I downloaded five months of podcasts and listened to them everyday on my commute! I've run out of new ones, unless I really go WAY back into last year. So.....I decided to stop lurking and say hello!

Hello.

We live up here in Alaska and our next trip is in 19 days!

Can't wait!

 

[jcb]

Lablady



to the party (we leave in 10 days ourselves).

 

[Michele]

Well, I've been lurking and became ADDICTED to the podcast! I downloaded five months of podcasts and listened to them everyday on my commute! I've run out of new ones, unless I really go WAY back into last year. So.....I decided to stop lurking and say hello!

Hello.

We live up here in Alaska and our next trip is in 19 days!

Can't wait!

and you should definitely start at the beginning of the podcasts and listen to them all. I've been listening since the beginning and I'm going back to listen again. You never know what info you will get that will help out on your upcoming trip.

 

[Stacy's a freak]

Well, I've been lurking and became ADDICTED to the podcast! I downloaded five months of podcasts and listened to them everyday on my commute! I've run out of new ones, unless I really go WAY back into last year. So.....I decided to stop lurking and say hello!

Hello.

We live up here in Alaska and our next trip is in 19 days!

Can't wait!

19 days, how great! I just took a cruise to Alaska and it is a gorgeous place! But I'm sure you will be ready for some sun and warmth in 19 days

 

[jcb]

I think I am taking this way too seriously but I can't quit something once I have started it. I guess I can take comfort in the fact that if there is a place for the WDW OCD, this is it.

The current estimate - 12/4/08 at 6:41 pm. 84 new members - 694 to go.

But (and this is were the OCD comes in), I'm concerned about two days where the joining members were much higher than they have been more recently. That skews the estimate (and we can't have that).

If I eliminate those two outliers, the estimate becomes 12/5/08 at 11:04 AM which, coincidentally, is 10 minutes after my flight to WDW departs!

Now, I really did all of this so I could quote Mark Twain: "Most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a light pole, more for support than illumination."

Wise man.

 

[jcb]

Current Estimate - 12/5/08 - 9:39 AM

Today: 56 new memberships, 638 to go.

This is the lower number of new members in one day to date - hardly surprising I suppose. I guess too many people were being thankful today.

me too.

 

[jcb]

Black Friday was worse than Thankgiving - 51 new members - 587 to go - current estimate - 12/6/08 - 1:12 AM.

But I wouldn't start planning the late night celebration just yet. . . .

Now if I could just come up with a formula to win the baby Martin pool.

 

[jcb]

I skipped posting yesterday (too preoccupied with listening to the live podcast) but recoreded the data. It was below average, 55 new members (probably reflecting people traveling). Today picked up considerably, 85 or so new members which is closer to the per day average (80).

So, the current estimate is 12/6/08 at 10:17 am. If we average 80 members per day from now until Pete's birthday, this estimate will stay pretty consistent (within an hour and a half either way) as an average.

Of course, the actual time of day when 200,000 is reached is subject to hour by hour fluctuations. More join in the evening than early morning. So be sure to check the evening of 12/5/08.

I'll be at MVMCP - checking my iPhone. . . .

 

[jcb]

I look for 200,000 to be reached sometime the morning of 12/6/08. At this point, the time of day is too variable to state.

The number of new members per day seems to be holding around 80 or so and at this point, I've milked this thread way beyond good sense. So unless the numbers drastically change between now and Friday, it is time to kiss this thread goodnight.
Thanks for tolerating my computer geek gene.