Cost of Fuel Poll

[keys2kingdom]

I think the biggest effect it will have on DVC owners is that you might see people start to make fewer but longer trips. Transportation costs are becoming prohibitive but for DVC owners lodging costs are controlled. A lot of owners have APs so park admission costs are soemwhat controlled. It may make a lot more $ense to make one 2 week trip instead of two 1 week trips.

I think this is spot on, as a matter of fact this is exactly what we chose to do this year. We originally had a one week spring trip planned along with a one week fall trip. We decided to consolidate into an end of September 2 week trip in order to eliminate that second set of airfares.

We went twice last year but I just can't justify that airfare for a second trip this year.

On another note, I think we will start to see DVC sales really start to slump as these economic conditions continue to worsen and as credit tightens. I think people will really start to think twice and three times about financing something they don't really need. In fact I'd be really surprised if their sales hadn't already slowed considerably.

 

[mufasa0505]

I paid 3.59 for the lowest grade gas a few days ago.

We're already seeing airfare increase out of Buffalo. We're used to paying about $300 roundtrip for both of us to fly to Orlando. Last month we paid $700 to fly out of Rochester. It would have been $1000 to fly out of Buffalo! If airfare continues to go up, we will definitely be making less trips.

I work in retail and the way I've seen prices moving up rapidly over the last 6 months is very scary to me. My customers are feeling it, and it's definitely making me nervous.

 

[stopher1]

$3.47 here in Central IN yesterday... I haven't seen it less than $3 since February. We're definitely monitoring our driving habits, and driving smarter...no more frivolous trips to the store for 2 or 3 things, or stand alone trips anywhere... everything is bundled now.

 

[UmmGooD]

I think there are a couple of factors that have not been brought up already.

1. DVC requires maintenance fees which will eventually go up to meet the additional cost of fuel. This could require people who are now going less because of fuel costs to rethink how much the costs are versus how often they fly.

2. DVC future purchasers will eventually fade if we really get in a recession. If you already own then you might have more incentive to come visit but if you do not own yet and are thinking about it (like me) you might decide against it worrying how much it will cost to get there over time. Will less people willing to buy it could put some downward pressure on Disney's price fixing.

3. Recessions will eventually hit the travel industry. Right now Disney is doing well at their parks but we are just at the beginning of the recession if it is one and if it continues to dive you will not see people tighten their belts until they either overload their credit or use up all their savings because of the additional cost of items. If Disney gets hit with less travelors it will drive down the price of staying on site which will end up effecting DVC in one way or another.

My parents also have 2 timeshares that are closer to their home in CA and I think if you are close to Disney it still makes sense. I am in TX and if the cost of a plane ticket goes up much more I probably will not be buying for awhile (Even though I really want to).

 

[zulaya]

I think non-DVC resort offers may be forthcoming in the months ahead if the fuel costs continue to inflate the prices of food and other necessities.

As far as DVC...I don't think there will be a huge difference. You may just see fewer people on the waitlist from time to time.

 

[kimberh]

Just today my mother told me that they are cancelling their vacation in the mountains due to the $300.00 in gas it was going to cost them. I do believe it is going to have a effect. It use to cost under $75.

 

[starbox]

Living in the land of the eternal commute, we moved to a teeny but very fuel efficient car about a year ago. It's not a comfortable ride , but I just went from Atlanta to Orlando on one 10 gallon tank of gas.

 

[theoarn]

Yesterday I got gas out of town for $2.89. It looks like it is going down around here.

 

[darlinboy]

I don't think DVC owners will cut back, they're already invested in the their trips though point ownershi (and WDW fans extraordinaire).

Non-DVC owner attendance at resorts and parks will almost certainly decline, along with leisure travel generally.

 

[UmmGooD]

Assuming the economy continues in the same direction I think you see some of the following happen.

1. Existing DVC owners will probably continue to travel if they can afford travel and MF.
2. Some DVC owners from additional costs with other daily items like food, gas, utilities will no longer be able to afford their vacations and might be tempted to sell to get out of their MF's if they are really tight on money.
3. Some DVC owners will be unemployed and forced to sell their DVC memberships.
4. New DVC prospects will be less likely to want to purchase from Disney direct or resales which might cause RORF to drop some if Disney no longer has use for the points. I do not think though in any way the DVC resales will be like other timeshares and loose all their value.
5. If travel drops to WDW then Disney will lower their room rates across the board and it will make DVC ownership less attractive at the current time. Especially if MF's increase to cover additional fuel costs. This will make purchasing DVC less attractive to someone who does not already own and Disney (if they have any DVC left to sell) will have to lower pricing with incentives, etc... to get people to buy in which in turn will lower resale value.

 

[DisFlan]

To be honest, I was surprised that DVC went ahead and started KTV - right on the heels of AKV. The economy looked pretty gloomy back before they started building. I figured they'd pull in a bit and wait on KTV. It looks to be a mucho expensive building in a very expensive spot.

DisFlan

 

[spiceycat]

you are looking at WDW with just the US in mind.

remember it is International. our fuel costs are going up and our dollar is low. that will mean more international guests will be coming to Disney.

they have paid in Great Britian and Europe $10 a gallon for a while now I think.

that is why they have more efficient cars less Jeep type.

as long as we drive 70 mph and higher - the gas prices will go.

until the goverment again lowers the speed limit to 55mph - really think gas prices will continue to go up.

that is what it took last time - we as a nation must start to converse - less Jeep type cars - more Honda, Civic, and much, much smaller cars.

we were a family or 5 in the 50's and my father drove a car - not a station wagon, certain not a van.

Disney won't be hurt - they weren't last time. Instead of advertising here in the states, they just advertise in Europe, China, Asia, South America - anywhere there are people who have the money to spend.

the only thing that would hurt Disney is like in the 1920's a world wide depression. Hopefully that won't happen again - but yea everything happens again.

 

[Melrosgirl]

Having just returned from WDW, I can say that the crowds were large and I kept wondering "Recession? What recession?" (Many non Americans also, but you get my point.) People save for a WDW vacation and/or plan for it and nothing stops them. Now with that said, I only spent $50 on souvenirs (each kid got $25 to spend). That was it.

 

[DisFlan]

We bought hardly anything on our last trip (I just followed my sis around and carried the bags of stuff she got for her kids). It made a big difference to our bottom line. We won't be buying much this year, either. It sure helps the Disney budget, and I've already got boxes full of Disneyana at home - we don't need more "stuff".

DisFlan

 

[Quiksilvr]

I don't know if you've seen this, but there's an interview with Rob Iger on money.cnn.com where he discusses Disney in the context of the economy as it is now. Interesting interview.

 

[Anthony1971]

I have to take the opposite view as far as DVC or other timeshare sales are concerned. As people beigin to tighten their belts they start looking for bargains and DVC is certianly that.
As fars as Fuel and plane tickets are concerned, My tickets cost me about 6%more than last year but have 3 airports that are close and last year I got a very low price.
Yes every family has other considerations but for every family who sees the need to cut out a vaction due to other costs you will have three that need to cut back. Without bringing in numbers DVC will certianly cost less year 2 and year 1 with a 10% down payment which would in most cases will equal what that family would have otherwise spent on a hotel.
This also excludes the larger number of families who will be able to afford DVC or a Disney vacation in either event.
I do agree that Disney as whole will suffer but DVC I think not.