Well, heres the way I look at it. Youre not being punished and being charged more if you dont get a code. They are a bonus. A perk. Random. A lottery, if you will. I receive coupons (Gymboree, Childrens Store, GAP, Old Navy, Sears, Best Buy, even Macys) for stores all the time that are mailed to small segments. The code is just a coupon. Great if you get one, nothing to cry about if you dont. We go every year, have a Disney Visa, and APs. Last year I received four different code offers (two via snail mail postcard, two email, three packages, one room only). Never when we could go though. I took an AP discount (not advertised) for our travel dates. I also have received a code or two almost every other year for the past five years.
This year, I havent received a code at all for WDW; Ive received two for DL. I just couldnt take advantage of the bounce-back offer when we were there because I couldnt at that time confirm when we would be able to travel, even with the advance warning. There were too many things in the air at that time.
BTW, dont the bounce-back offers negate the theory that they dont care about people who are already staying onsite? And they have only x amount of rooms. Do you really think Disney cares who (repeat or new) guests are booking these rooms? All money spends the same. If all new guests stay onsite, the rooms wont be available for repeat guests and they will be the ones staying off site. And they may find out they like off site and the new guests may just be once-in-a-lifetime visitors. That theory could work heavily against Disney.
When I booked last year, the CM booking my ressie told me that there is always a discount available; you just have to have the right CM who is (1) willing to look and (2) knows where to look.
If we were vacationing anywhere else, we wont expect a discount code. Wed be shopping around. Therefore, we budget/book as though we were paying full price. And discounts we receive are just an extra.