Hey there,
Alright, a lot of questions seeded in there, but I'm gonna try and help haha.
My family has been going to Disney for Christmas the past 6 out of 7 years. We love it, and you're in for a real treat.
As far as the split stay goes... You're going to be moving around a lot. I wouldn't expect the DVC to open up, but you never know. I
believe the final deposit/last chance to cancel is coming up in late October. You may get lucky then, but it's a slim chance. The split stay is also going to affect your FP+ window. You don't have to worry about the ADR window as it's already open. But, you're a Disney vet, so I'm sure you already know that.
You forgot to include the trip dates. You mentioned you'd be there between Christmas and New Years, so I'll go ahead and assume you'll be there when my family will: December 24th-January 1st (or somewhere between there.) You mentioned you had young kids, so I'd assume you're going during their school break.
Extra Magic Hours
As far as evening EMH's go, Disney has (seemed to) cut down on the amount of late nights. They've already posted an evening EMH for MK on December 30th. It'll be from 12am-2am. That's even been cut, as it used to go until 3am. MK usually does a NYE "dress rehearsal" on 12/30, giving guests the opportunity to see the NYE show the night before. It's great, especially for guests who don't want to deal with the crowds on NYE or can't decide on a park.
But, let's not worry about evening EMH. Let's talk morning.
- Right now MK is scheduled to open at 9am, with a few 8am-9am EMH's sprinkled in. Expect the MK hours to change. It
should open at 8am, with a morning EMH from 7am-8am. I'd bet the house on this for at least Christmas Day.
- Do know that Disney is always adding EMH's based on the crowd levels. A few years ago, we were checking in and gathering the park hours from the check-in desk. The CM stopped us and said "wait.. wait.. we JUST added EMHs for EPCOT. Those hours are outdated. If you wait an hour the new ones will be replenished." They'll start adding hours as early as mid-October and late as intra-week. You'll have a better idea when you go to schedule your FP+.
Park Crowds
It's gonna be crowded. It's gonna be insanely crowded. Seriously. But it sounds like you've already accepted that.
When people hear about how crowded it is at Disney, they look at my family bewildered and ask "why do you keep going back?!" Main Street is nearly impossible to navigate by midday. Wait times for popular attractions often eclipse 2-3 hours. Sometimes the bathrooms have long lines. We start planning our trip months, sometimes A YEAR in advance. So why do it? Why put ourselves through the stress? The second you turn onto Main Street and see the castle—a backdrop to a fully decorated Main Street, nothing else matters. It's like running down the stairs and seeing the tree, full of presents, for the first time on Christmas morning. There's a backdrop of Christmas tunes playing and you're in DISNEY for Christmas.
The best part is December 26th. When everyone else is going to work and dealing with their Christmas hangover (whether alcohol inflicted or just tired from the holidays) you're getting up and doing it all over again. Your holiday is lasting a week - not just one day!
So, yes, it will be crowded... but the trip will be as good as you make it. If you go in expecting to ride everything, you'll be disappointed. If you go in saying "it's gonna be crowded, but we're in Disney for Christmas and we're gonna have a good time..." you'll love it.
There are some tricks to avoiding the crowds & long waits:
- Go early. You mentioned you like the morning EMH. We always arrive at MK on Christmas morning by 7:30am. We head straight to Space Mountain, which usually has a 20-minute wait. We finish up by 7:50-8amish. We go right to Buzz Lightyear and are on and off within 30 minutes. The park is now open and Main Street begins to fill up. We'll usually head to either Jingle Cruise, Pirates or one of the cult favorites (Peter Pan, Small World, Pooh) next. Whichever we don't have a FP+ for.
- For whatever reason, the parks don't get crazy crowded until 11am or 12pm. Maybe people are eating breakfast or it's taking a while for the off-site guests to park.. who knows. That window between EMH or rope drop and 11am or 12pm is your opportunity to ride your favorite attractions without a long wait time. As I mentioned above, we always do Space Mountain. I know you mentioned that you have younger kids, so your plan may be different, but that should give you a proper idea.
- Don't fall for the "newness" novelty. I've never had a problem grabbing a FP+ for 7DMT. We had one back in 2014, but decided to run down there on Christmas morning shortly after the EMH started. The wait was already at 1.5 hours. People will be flocking to 7DMT, the new Frozen ride, etc. Don't be a sheep. Use this time to head to your favorite rides that may have a lower wait times. Rides like Space Mountain, Small World, Jungle Cruise, etc.
- While on that note, get a FP+ for the bigger rides. It's a must. Sure, you can get on things at rope drop and during EMH, but I view it this way: during EMH or rope drop, you only have time for ONE big ride (think Space Mountain, Thunder Mountain, Soarin', Test Track) and ONE, sometimes TWO smaller rides (think Buzz Lightyear, Pirates, etc.)
- Take Breaks. The afternoon is perfect for a break or nap. You have two things in your favor: 1) you're staying close to the parks sometimes and 2) there's so much more to do during Christmas than the parks. The parks are the most crowded from 11am to around 4pm. That's when you can really feel the crowds. Leave around 1pm. Take a nap or explore the resorts and their decorations, then head to dinner and back to the parks or dinner at one of the parks. It'll still be crowded when you return, but the break should offer you some reprieve. And seriously... your kids won't be the only ones in need of a nap. I'm 27 and always need a nap during my Disney trips.
The Curious Case of Hollywood Studios
Hollywood Studios is a shell of itself. Construction has led to a lot of closures and with the Osborne Lights no longer there, it won't be as popular for guests. It should help alleviate the off-site guests. On the negative side, though, the construction only leaves a few big rides—meaning longer waits for RnR, Tower of Terror and Toy Story Midway Mania. Again, I don't know how old your kids are. Maybe you don't even go on ToT or RnR, but I can offer some advice when tackling DHS.
Here's what my family plans on doing (and has done in the past.) On the day of the EPCOT candlelight processional, I'd do DHS in the morning. Use FP+'s for ToT, Toy Story Midway Mania and Star Wars. Finish up around 1pm and either head back to your room or go directly to EPCOT. Spend the rest of the day at EPCOT and finish your night with Illuminations.
Another day during your trip, do Test Track or Soarin' at Rope Drop and have FP+'s for Frozen, Spaceship Earth and the Character Meet. Spend the rest of the day touring the countries, checking out the storytellers. They're actually pretty interesting. Then, head back to your resort for a quick break or go to DHS for the evening for Fantasmic (if you wanna see it.)
Transportation
You can hit transportation snags anywhere. We always stayed at POFQ and never had a problem. It had one bus stop, so we always got right on. This trip the buses were late. We still got on, but they were often late.
The best advice I could give is to use the transportation to your advantage. Do MK when you're at BLT. Do DHS and/or EPCOT at BC. Figure out the first stop at Sports and try and get a room there. Staying at a value, you're gonna wait a bit for the buses. It stinks that you're going Deluxe to value to Deluxe to value. You're gonna be pampered with the quick walk to the parks before heading to a value where you'll most likely wait for a bus. It'll make it seem worse. Again, just roll with it. It is what you make of it. If you're running late for an ADR, call a cab or an Uber.
Quick Services
Try the resorts. We love Contempo Cafe, Capt. Cook's, and Landscape of Flavors. All have really solid food. Take a trip over to DS and go to Wolfgang Puck Express. Another really solid place. Outside of NYE and Christmas Day, no QS spot is gonna be OVERLY crowded. You may wait a little to place your order, but we've never had a problem. We did go to Wolfgang Puck Express once and the line went out the door shortly after we placed out order.
- I'd say do Contempo Cafe during your stay at BLT
- Try Boardwalk Bakery while you're at Beach Club
- Be Our Guest lunch or breakfast is solid on the
DDP. Otherwise it's a bit overpriced. It's worth going just to see the decor and theming.
- Sunshine Seasons is highly regarded. We always like the Mexico QS. Sometimes it has a longer line, but it's very good.
Overall, good luck. Feel free to ask any other questions. I do have a free ebook I wrote that's dedicated to Disney during Christmas. You can find it at survivedisxmas.com.