When I said that FASTPASSES are "unlimited", I meant that there was no cap on the number that each
guest could claim in an operating day. Here we've seen people claim they get 7-8-9 PFs per day. Meanwhile we know that there are some park guests who take zero.
So what's a safe average? Maybe 3 per guest, per day under the current system? If so, then we know FP rides will go down on a per-attraction basis because so many new FP destinations are being added.
At MK there are currently only nine FP attractions...and that includes Dumbo and Ariel which just debuted. With FASTPASS+ there will be at least 20.
Three FP+ per guest, per day, spread over more than twice as many attractions should thin things out considerably.
Don't forget about the attraction groupings.
Currently, I understand that 75% FASTPASS is the operating norm for most attractions. On busier days it could climb to well over 90% FP. And my experiences pretty much support those numbers. I suspect we've all had exposure to the FP bias on attractions like Soarin, Test Track and RNR. Those FP arrivals just keep flowing and they only allow people in from Standby very sparingly.
At Hollywood Studios guests will reportedly be able to choose one FP+ from a group that includes Toy Story Mania, Rock N Rollercoaster and Fantasmic.
Average park attendance is 25,000 guests and average operating day is about 12 hours (shorter during slow seasons, longer during peak.) RNR and TSM have hourly rider capacities of 1800 and 1200. That's 36000 riders per day, plus the 10000 for Fantasmic or 48000 total.
With 25K guests and 48K capacity on those 3 attractions, that grouping could run 50% FP+, 50% Standby and still satisfy everyone wishing to use FP+ under these terms.
At MK, you'll have all three Mountains in one grouping along with a handful of other attractions. During the last testing phase they had Buzz, Peter Pan, parade & fireworks viewing, two character meets in with the Mountains and each guests could choose TWO per day. Those attractions represent enough capacity to drop FP usage down to a similar 50% level.
Disney could go to higher levels on certain attractions to meet guest demand. It remains to be seen how that will be handled.
And there will be a decided advantage to Disney resort guests who pre-book FP+. That doesn't necessarily mean you will have to get on-line right at 60 days. I don't think that will be necessary...unless it's for something like parade or fireworks viewing if those options prove to be popular.
But if you're staying at a Disney resort, you best secure your FP+ before 8/9am when the parks open for the day. That's when the flood gates literally will open, with thousands of day guests scrapping over whatever FP+ slots remain. Again there will be enough capacity in the system for everyone to get something...but you might have to choose between Fantasmic or RnR if TSM is all booked.
That's Disney's end game in all of this. Pay a little more to stay at a Disney hotel and you can schedule your FP+ from home days or weeks in advance. Stay off-site and....take your chances.