BREXIT......How do you feel Brits? Excited??

[PlutoPony]

Now that the change is going to happen, they will all be motivated by profit to be the ones to take advantage of the new landscape.

But the exit agreements will take a year+ to negotiate and until those details are firmed up, businesses don't know the parameters of HOW they will operate + try to make a profit in the new environment. It's that uncertainty that will continue to roil markets and depress earnings

Can't emphasize enough how much uncertainly plays into economics.

 

[Oreo Cookie]

I have to believe many of the over 50's who voted in favor of leaving really didn't have a full understanding of the consequences of their vote.
@A_Princess'_Daddy made a lot of sense to me in his post #22.

Otherwise, why would people choose years of volatility and economic uncertainty as they head toward retirement?

I'm not sure why people voted the way that they did. The uncertainty worries me.

 

[CPanther95]

But the exit agreements will take a year+ to negotiate and until those details are firmed up, businesses don't know the parameters of HOW they will operate + try to make a profit in the new environment. It's that uncertainty that will continue to roil markets and depress earnings

Can't emphasize enough how much uncertainly plays into economics.

There will be short term uncertainty, but the UK has too strong an economy to worry about being economically isolated. Any country even moderately interested in their own economic health will be hashing out agreements with the UK fairly quickly.

Now I have no clue about the particulars with other countries in the EU - or whether they have the ability to make it difficult - but ultimately even the countries of the EU will be falling over themselves to make sure that they have a good trading relationship with the UK.

But they'll just have to tough it out. It's much more difficult to secure your independence than it is to just hand over your sovereignty to a foreign power. Fortunately, that's a lesson they will only need to learn once.

 

[gwynne]

This is just sad to me.

The U.K. Is Googling What the E.U. Is Hours After It Voted to Leave

"Britain has voted for Brexit and now the British are wondering exactly what that means, search data shows.

In the UK, the search “Are we in or out of the EU?” has spiked 2,450%, according to Google Trends.

Many are asking questions about what the European Union is:"

http://time.com/4381612/uk-brexit-google-what-is-the-eu/

 

[CPanther95]

This is just sad to me.

The U.K. Is Googling What the E.U. Is Hours After It Voted to Leave

"Britain has voted for Brexit and now the British are wondering exactly what that means, search data shows.

In the UK, the search “Are we in or out of the EU?” has spiked 2,450%, according to Google Trends.

Many are asking questions about what the European Union is:"

http://time.com/4381612/uk-brexit-google-what-is-the-eu/

Why in the world would almost half of Brits vote to stay a part of an multi-national organization that they no nothing about?

 

[diznygirl]

Why in the world would almost half of Brits vote to stay a part of an multi-national organization that they no nothing about?

It's the old "we don't need anyone" thinking that gets people in trouble.

There will be short term uncertainty, but the UK has too strong an economy to worry about being economically isolated. Any country even moderately interested in their own economic health will be hashing out agreements with the UK fairly quickly.

Now I have no clue about the particulars with other countries in the EU - or whether they have the ability to make it difficult - but ultimately even the countries of the EU will be falling over themselves to make sure that they have a good trading relationship with the UK.

But they'll just have to tough it out. It's much more difficult to secure your independence than it is to just hand over your sovereignty to a foreign power. Fortunately, that's a lesson they will only need to learn once.

Trouble is the UK economy includes Scotland and Ireland, and the vote breakdown shows that those countries voted Stay. If they choose to break away, the United Kingdom loses quite a bit. A simplification of the issues for sure tho.

 

[godders]

An interesting idea being bashed around now (which was also brought up during Boris Johnson's time as Mayor) that London should declare itself an independent city state as 60% voted to remain. Now that really would cause the UK economy to crash.

There is also an article going around about some people who voted to leave saying they did that because they didn't think their vote would count and now regret their decision - http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-who-wish-theyd-voted-to-remain-a3280361.html - think some people got confused with the way a general election works and a referendum. Or like many people believe a lot of Brits are idiots....

 

[CPanther95]

An interesting idea being bashed around now (which was also brought up during Boris Johnson's time as Mayor) that London should declare itself an independent city state as 60% voted to remain. Now that really would cause the UK economy to crash.

I hope the people that lost the vote aren't going to pout to the extent that they actually root for their own economy to crash.

 

[Teresa Pitman]

Yeah, that's my point. It was 52% (53% in England) for leaving, but if you look at the responses in this thread, the people we know over there are heavily against leaving by a ridiculous margin.

As I think someone above tried to explain, it has a lot to do with who our friends and family are. My UK relatives and friends have similar values and political leanings to mine. As a comparable example (without getting too political), in Canada's two previous elections (not the last one), the Conservative Party won majorities. I literally had NO family members or friends who voted for them. So the people I knew were opposed to the Conservatives by what you would consider "a ridiculous margin" (close to 100%) and the Conservatives won the election. It's just the reality that we tend to associate with people who think like us.

 

[A_Princess'_Daddy]

It's just generally the way things go in situations like this. You have 2 opposite sides with their own agendas going head to head and all you get are the "dire consequences" voices on both sides - and by default you'll get much louder voices on the side of status quo because businesses and markets don't like the unknown.

Now that the change is going to happen, they will all be motivated by profit to be the ones to take advantage of the new landscape.

On a side note: The viewpoint that the majority of Brits only voted the way they did because they must just be too stupid to know any better - is pretty insulting ... and petty.

It's unfortunate that you're insulted, but it's borne out by empirical data. The more highly educated a voter was, the more likely they were to vote to remain. It wasn't a perfect correlation, but it was clear and, I believe, quite telling. I also suspect that's why most of us on this board know people who voted to remain; in my case, my British friends are literally all economists from grad school or business, are all highly educated, and all realized that this would have major, unforeseen by many, consequences. They run the political spectrum, so it's not a political distinction, but it is a matter of having a deeper understanding of the issues.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...e-results-compare-to-the-uks-educated-old-an/

"The higher the level of education, the higher the EU support
According the polls, university graduates were the most likely people to want to remain in the EU - while those with a GCSE or equivalent as their highest qualification were more likely to back Brexit.

This was a pattern that was reflected in the results.

Only three of 35 areas where more than half of residents had a degree voted to leave - South Bucks, West Devon, and Malvern Hills in the West Midlands."


As to the rest of your suppositions, it's just not how things typically go. Retrenchment and isolation has historically resulted in economic stagnation, recession, or worse (including at least one world war). The economic inefficiencies generated by a breakdown in a common market are significant, complex, and expensive. Voting to leave the EU means voting to LEAVE, which means they don't get to keep all the same benefits and perks. It will cost time, money, and yes, result in great uncertainty while all of that is worked out, and economies do not grow when they are scared. Yes, I am 100% confident that the U.S. will work out trade deals with the U.K. (or whatever is left of the U.K.), but a U.S. corporation with operations based in London, doing business on the European mainland, will still have to either move its operations or open another base. And repeat, and repeat, and repeat, with each iteration requiring a slightly different strategy and outcome. To pretend that's not the case, or to not understand that it will be the case because one does not understand the consequences of one's actions, is dangerous.

Lastly, it's safe to say the loudest voices on this topic came from those pushing for the exit, and not on the side of the status quo. Revolutionaries are always the loudest; they have to be by nature of their role.

 

[Kona65]

ELATED!!!!!! MAYBE HOPE FOR AMERICA IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER.

 

[CPanther95]

Retrenchment and isolation has historically resulted in economic stagnation, recession, or worse (including at least one world war).

Just because you maintain your country's own sovereignty, it doesn't mean that you have become isolationist.

 

[gwynne]

Just because you maintain your country's own sovereignty, it doesn't mean that you have become isolationist.

But in a world economy, you don't get your pick of all the opportunities. Everyone is making choices, especially the EU. Why would they reward the UK for exiting?
Markets, banks and businesses certainly can choose to move to a more EU friendly environment.

 

[godders]

I hope the people that lost the vote aren't going to pout to the extent that they actually root for their own economy to crash.

One would hope not but you just never know in this day and age

 

[DisneyDetective]

I am Scottish and live just outside Glasgow. What a mad day it has been, it's like something from an series of 24! Feel kind of numb actually with firstly waking up to find we're leaving the EU, our Prime Minister resigning and now Scotland could end up having another independence referendum. To make matters worse the exchange rate plummeted and I'm going to WDW in a few weeks time. Maybe I should go down to Troon and ask Trump for a few dollars.

 

[Realfoodfans]

This is incorrect. When Southern Ireland became independent a clause was put into the agreement that allows Irish citizens to enter the United Kingdom, live, work and vote in perpetuity. Your status is unchanged.
Also the EHIC which replaced the E111 some years ago is NOT an EU agreement. It is covered by the European Economic Area and is unaffected by the Brexit vote.

It is difficult to talk about this momentous decision without breaching the DIS political guidelines so I will just add that everyone I know is truly delighted by the outcome, that we look forward to, once again, being an independent country able to interact with the whole world rather than being dictated to by the sneering elite of corrupt officials in Brussels.

ford family

Totally agree with you - so much misinformation and have you noticed how the Remain on social media have been so vile today. I am most definitely not racist/homophobic/stupid/selfish/left wing or any of the other awful things mentioned today. I have only met one person today who voted remain - and her views were totally selfish! All 3 generations of our family and extended family voted leave - self employed, public sector worker, two who travel internationally on regular basis, young mum, retirees. Yes it's going to be tough - my only reservation is who we get to lead us onward.

 

[Realfoodfans]

It also shows that our members here on this forum are not at all in tune with our cousins across the pond. A majority of those in the UK voted for independence from the EU, but based on the responses in this thread, the Brits we (collectively) are in communication with were against it at a rate of about 100:1.

What gives you that impression? Not from what I've read.

 

[schumigirl]

Wow........some different views from abroad.

I voted leave.........I am almost 50 and most certainly have an understanding of everything that involves and am certainly not ignorant in what it means.

I am over the moon. I am Scottish but have lived in England for over 20 years. If I had gotten a vote in the Scottish referendum I would have voted for Scotland to stay in the UK. Which is what the Scottish people voted for.......they didn't vote to stay in the EU in that referendum.....they voted to stay in the UK. The fact they now want to stay in the EU is a different issue.

Most people I know are over the moon. It's been a long time coming.

How would Amercians feel if they had an unelected body of beaurocrats in Canada for example making your laws, telling you what you can and can't do........that's what a lot of people about the EU and it is to the detriment of the U.K.

We get the short straw in many things. But without getting too political I will say it's complicated. Uncontrolled immigration was certainly a worry for lots of people. But there are numerous reasons the vote went the way it did.

I saw a youngish woman on the news say she regretted her vote and didn't think her vote would matter........now that is stupid. But the vast majority of people aren't.

It's interesting Holland and Norway are calling for the same choices now.

 

[A_Princess'_Daddy]

Just because you maintain your country's own sovereignty, it doesn't mean that you have become isolationist.

A nice politically loaded soundbite, but keep in mind that they may not get a choice. When it becomes economically inefficient to work with them, they may find themselves isolated by virtue of the effects of a free market economy with free trade zones of which they are not a part. It will almost certainly not happen to that extreme, but to state that it is suddenly more efficient today to work with two entities, rather than one, is incorrect, and inefficiencies, in any economy, create drag.

 

[schumigirl]

I think most Brits voted on this emotionally due to the immigration platform, instead of the economic...which was a grave mistake.

Not true.

Tabloids may say that but from what I've seen its just not the case. There will always be those that have a knee jerk reaction, but for the most part I would disagree form everyone I know and what I've seen in discussions.