We have a Universal trip planned for end of August, and it’s hard to not see the numbers and become concerned. And we may cancel - but we’re not there yet. For several reasons …
Foremost is I strongly believe we need to stop focusing on infections and switch to tracking outcomes. If the vaccines work (so far, so very very good) they will protect the vulnerable from serious illnesses regardless of the behaviours of others. And the vulnerable with COVID is overwhelmingly older. Chances of a negative health outcome for someone over 80 with an infection is literally 100’s of times more likely than for someone under 30. And despite what you have read the vast majority of older Americans HAVE been vaccinated, in EVERY state. I think over 80% of those 65+ are fully vaxxed, with some states over 99%, and the lowest still close to 75%.
Who isn’t getting the shots? Well, those under 12 of course, but mostly it is younger, healthy people for whom an infection has minimal consequences. Many of these folks also were reluctant to mask up, or follow lockdown mandates, but that’s another story.
Rising case counts were to be expected, and here in Ontario it will probably be that this will also happen as well. But as long as the hospitalization rates do not follow, and in the third wave, due to vaccines and who got them, that for the most part did not happen. And has not happened yet in the States. It could - I sure hope it doesn’t - but the explosion in infections has not resulted in an identical rise in serious illnesses.
Which has been the goal all along. Turn this thing into a manageable illness, as it is never going away. Quickest way to do that, of course, is through herd immunity, preferably from EVERYONE getting vaccinated. But keep in mind infection confers immunity (for a while) as well. Eventually (look closely at the numbers in the UK - they exploded last month just before the lockdown ended, but have already plummeted, and deaths as a percentage stayed low) the virus will run out of hosts. If Florida follows the UK example in two weeks the case count could fall off a cliff.
Or not. The big worry is that the virus can ping pong amongst the healthy unvaxxed, causing little damage, but long enough to mutate into a variant that can evade the current immunities. Now, how likely is that to occur? A virus that is highly transmittable, extremely virulent, and able to avoid immunity? That‘s a long shot, but then again who would have predicted the past two years?
Having said all that we’re taking our plans day by day. Disney mandating vaccines for employees will help - any little bit will.
