Are "After Hours" and "Early Morning Magic" Cutting Into Regular Hours?-Analytics (Long)

[MaryKatesMom]

We were there over Easter and YES the parks seemed crazy crowded in the morning. In the past every day MK would open at 8AM with EMH at 7AM it made a huge difference to us so we're off to Miami next Easter.

 

[A Mickeyfan]

On the one hand, yes, I remember those days well. We used to stay at the Contemporary every Summer from 1972-1978 before our family got too big and we started staying at the Villas at Lake Buena Vista, (plowed under to make way for Saratoga Springs). Back then, there were no EMH and midnight seemed to be the norm, with some nights until 1:00. But......on the other hand......one does not have to look back nostalgically to capture that memory. Just look at the 2015 hours for June.


The "good old days" were as recent as last year.

Yes, but few and far between for "recent" back then it was the norm

 

[dlavender]

I just hope that now that they know they can't sell it, they will give it back for free.......

I crack myself up.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Thanks for wrapping this up for us! I'm surprised that they would turn back MK hours to 2013's level. Im confident that if polled, Disney customer's would prefer expanded MK hours YOY vs what is being offered at AK. One can hope that this is just an experiment and hours will continue to increase YOY starting next year.

You forgot one important thing--Increased price. Attendance goes up. Price goes up. Hours go down. That is where the real intrigue lies.

One hypothesis is that Disney increases park times based on predicted crowd levels. The higher the predicted crowds, the later they keep the parks open. People seem to think that the current data showing a decrease of park hours from June 2015 to June 2016 has proved this hypothesis to be wrong because they are assuming that Disney has cut hours while attendance is still increasing, but what if that is not true? What if Disney predicted June 2016 crowds were going to be lower than June 2015 crowds and adjusted hours down accordingly?

According to Josh on EasyWDW:

"Over the first four weeks in June, crowds have been shockingly weak. I’ve been working on a new song for the website’s debut album titled, “Where Have All The Tourists Gone” loosely based on this Paula Cole jam"

http://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/to...nu-review-and-a-general-magic-kingdom-update/ (June 29, 2016)

and

"Summer crowds continue to be weak into July. Magic Kingdom, which has historically seen a capacity closure on Independence Day, didn’t get anywhere close this year."

http://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/magic-kingdom-pinquest-review-as-wildlife-looms-heavy/ (July 7, 2016)

I don't know the answers either, but I think it's a plausible explanation that June 2016 hours are shorter than June 2015 hours because predicted attendance was lower than predicted attendance last year.

 

[dlavender]

One hypothesis is that Disney increases park times based on predicted crowd levels. The higher the predicted crowds, the later they keep the parks open. People seem to think that the current data showing a decrease of park hours from June 2015 to June 2016 has proved this hypothesis to be wrong because they are assuming that Disney has cut hours while attendance is still increasing, but what if that is not true? What if Disney predicted June 2016 crowds were going to be lower than June 2015 crowds and adjusted hours down accordingly?

According to Josh on EasyWDW:

"Over the first four weeks in June, crowds have been shockingly weak. I’ve been working on a new song for the website’s debut album titled, “Where Have All The Tourists Gone” loosely based on this Paula Cole jam"

http://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/to...nu-review-and-a-general-magic-kingdom-update/ (June 29, 2016)

and

"Summer crowds continue to be weak into July. Magic Kingdom, which has historically seen a capacity closure on Independence Day, didn’t get anywhere close this year."

http://www.easywdw.com/easy/blog/magic-kingdom-pinquest-review-as-wildlife-looms-heavy/ (July 7, 2016)

I don't know the answers either, but I think it's a plausible explanation that June 2016 hours are shorter than June 2015 hours because predicted attendance was lower than predicted attendance last year.

Perhaps its what they wanted all along. Decrease attendance while at least maintaining revenue. But is attendance really at 2013 levels? That would be hard to fathom. A three year low?

Interesting strategy. Hard to turn that ship around if that decrease goes too far south, and you are no longer maintaining. Time will tell.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

Perhaps its what they wanted all along. Decrease attendance while at least maintaining revenue. But is attendance really at 2013 levels? That would be hard to fathom. A three year low?

Interesting strategy. Hard to turn that ship around if that decrease goes too far south, and you are no longer maintaining. Time will tell.

A slight nitpick, but park hours are (edit to add: "probably". Who knows what Disney is actually thinking ) set mostly based on what crowds are EXPECTED to be, rather than what they actually are (although I heard in the past sometimes they would actually change park hours the morning of). Depending on what algorithm they are using to determine park hours, it wouldn't necessarily mean that they are expecting June 2013 level crowds in June 2016 just because the park hours are the same. For example, it's possible in June 2013 the predicted crowds were higher than the actual crowd numbers, which means in June 2013 they had too many park hours (by whatever standard they use). This scenario would allow for the "correct" number of park hours in June 2016 to be the same as the number of park hours in June 2013, but still allowing attendance in June 2016 to be higher than June 2013.

Anyway, I think you're right in that their current strategy is to increase the profits per visitor and accepting a decrease in # of visitors (or at least a decrease in growth of # of visitors). There's just not enough capacity in the parks to keep increasing attendance (in the short term anyway). They would have to either build more rides or build another park. Probably they are doing all these price increases now to make the books look nice until Star Wars Land, Pandora, Toy Story Land are done, hoping that the new stuff will allow enough capacity for growth (and also hoping they haven't permanently alienated their customers).

 

[dlavender]

A slight nitpick, but park hours are set mostly based on what crowds are EXPECTED to be, rather than what they actually are (although I heard in the past sometimes they would actually change park hours the morning of). Depending on what algorithm they are using to determine park hours, it wouldn't necessarily mean that they are expecting June 2013 level crowds in June 2016 just because the park hours are the same. For example, it's possible in June 2013 the predicted crowds were higher than the actual crowd numbers, which means in June 2013 they had too many park hours (by whatever standard they use). This scenario would allow for the "correct" number of park hours in June 2016 to be the same as the number of park hours in June 2013, but still allowing attendance in June 2016 to be higher than June 2013.

Anyway, I think you're right in that their current strategy is to increase the profits per visitor and accepting a decrease in # of visitors (or at least a decrease in growth of # of visitors). There's just not enough capacity in the parks to keep increasing attendance (in the short term anyway). They would have to either build more rides or build another park. Probably they are doing all these price increases now to make the books look nice until Star Wars Land, Pandora, Toy Story Land are done, hoping that the new stuff will allow enough capacity for growth.

Well said. And we will never see true numbers. Only Disney knows why or what they are doing. We just guess, and fume about decreased hours.

MK takes the brunt of the visitors. Which is why I'm surprised in the decreased hours. I would have to predict that June 2016 MK visitors had to at least match June 2015 visitors. With the closures at DHS, and Epcot (Until FEA a few weeks ago), I would suspect that more people visited MK than they would have normally done. Perhaps I'm wrong, but easywdw points out how insanely bare DHS has been over the last month visitor wise. We will see what happens next year when more is opened. Perhaps WDW's algorithm couldn't factor in people choosing 2 days at MK over a day at DHS. Or perhaps they could with FP+, and just made the decision to cut to save money vs offering the "free" time?

 

[jade1]

Sorry. I never read the whole thing, but are you just talking MK hours?

Appears June 2016 WDW parks were open 86 more hours than June 2015 including EMH's (about 3 hours a day more).

That does not include any MK AM purchase events.

Unless I had bad info or bad math skills anyway.

 

[cel_disney]

Sorry. I never read the whole thing, but are you just talking MK hours?

Appears June 2016 WDW parks were open 86 more hours than June 2015 including EMH's (about 3 hours a day more).

That does not include any MK AM purchase events.

Unless I had bad info or bad math skills anyway.

I am a big fan of this theory - that they are doing a better job distributing the crowds and using the other parks. The tourists are in animal kingdom and DHS at night right now to catch the shows/fireworks...

 

[JimmyV]

What if Disney predicted June 2016 crowds were going to be lower than June 2015 crowds and adjusted hours down accordingly?

Could be. But why do I get the feeling that Disney will report record attendance again for 2016?

Sorry. I never read the whole thing, but are you just talking MK hours?

Easy. Epcot has always had static hours. It rarely varies from Future World=9:00-9:00 and World Showcase=11:00-9:00 with EMHs thrown in and an occasional 8:00 opening for good measure. Doing a statistical analysis for Epcot would be an exercise in futility. Same for DHS and AK (at least back when the thread was started). Only the MK has closing times that range from 7:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m., so that is the only park worth studying. Studying the fluctuations of the other parks is like being a weatherman in San Diego. "And now for the weather. Tomorrow will be sunny with a high of 86. Now let's toss it over to Frank for the Sports report."

. The tourists are in animal kingdom and DHS at night right now to catch the shows/fireworks...

Not really. Have you been? It's pretty much a ghost town after 9:00. And it looks like the late night hours there are being looked at with an eye toward reconsideration. Maybe things will change when Rivers of Light debuts. But right now, late hours at AK are close to a fail for Disney. Not for the guests, mind you, as we all love an empty park at night. But Disney had something else in mind.

 

[jade1]

It was pretty busy last week, did 2 nights there. Esp nice during hot summer days.

Regardless the parks were open more hours this June than last.

That's how June turned out.

Maybe ROL is a ways off, but its coming and night safari and TOL projections are here with the Jungle Book, and eventually Avatar.

Unless you spend 15 hours a day every day at MK, it's nice to have another park at night, at least for us it was.

If given the choice of the same MK hours as last June, and AK closes at 6,7 or 8 every night, or a few less MK hours spread over an entire month and AK open until 11 every night.

Pretty easy choice for me, and actually a huge improvement and I give credit to WDW for the increased hours.

 

[cel_disney]

We have not been to AK yet at night but we wanted to go in April (opening pushed off) and we have set up our plans for October to attend.

We also spent nights at DHS to see SWFireworks and Club Villian on our last trip and will do so again in October. (CV obviously not a guarantee, but we are planning around the SW Fireworks).

In years past (1-2 trips a year) we have left both of those parks at 3pm and hopped to EP/MK. This year, we rope dropped MK or EP and hopped to AK/DHS.

The novelty may soon wear off - no disagreement there - but I don't believe that we are there yet.

I could definitely see them making the following adjustments though:
- add early morning paid event to Epcot (although lines still seem managable)
- for the fall/winter during the paid party night season having late nights at both AK/dHS, but on non MK party nights - only one of them is extended.

I agree with you that Epcot hours have been stable since the dawn of time but During the fall/winter when we typically travel DHS evenings were usually very short - no time to do anything after dinner - even F! was happening at 6:30/7:00 and park was closed...

 

[jade1]

We have not been to AK yet at night but we wanted to go in April (opening pushed off) and we have set up our plans for October to attend.

We also spent nights at DHS to see SWFireworks and Club Villian on our last trip and will do so again in October. (CV obviously not a guarantee, but we are planning around the SW Fireworks).

In years past (1-2 trips a year) we have left both of those parks at 3pm and hopped to EP/MK. This year, we rope dropped MK or EP and hopped to AK/DHS.

The novelty may soon wear off - no disagreement there - but I don't believe that we are there yet.

I could definitely see them making the following adjustments though:
- add early morning paid event to Epcot (although lines still seem managable)
- for the fall/winter during the paid party night season having late nights at both AK/dHS, but on non MK party nights - only one of them is extended.

I agree with you that Epcot hours have been stable since the dawn of time but During the fall/winter when we typically travel DHS evenings were usually very short - no time to do anything after dinner - even F! was happening at 6:30/7:00 and park was closed...

Agree with everything you said.

The thread turned into comparing last June to this June at MK, conveniently ignoring that overall WDW added 86 park hours this June over last June.

Upcoming months and winter months who knows.

 

[JimmyV]

The thread turned into comparing last June to this June at MK,

Since you admit to not having read the thread, you might want to go back and do so, starting with post #1. There, an analysis is made of April and May. June has only recently been added. And around the first week of August, July will be added. And posters have taken the data back to 2011, not just 2015. People genuinely care about how the MK compares year over year. I don't know too many people who are walking down Main Street at 11:00 p.m. at the end of the day wishing that the park stayed open until 1:00 a.m. consoling themselves that AK is running dark safaris until midnight where you can hardly make out any of the animals. Adding hours to AK is cold gravy when half the park (Lion King show, Flights of Wonder, Nemo show, Maharajah Jungle Trek, Gorilla Trail) are closed. Are Everest and Kali really an even trade for the entirety of the MK?

 

[jade1]

Since you admit to not having read the thread, you might want to go back and do so, starting with post #1. There, an analysis is made of April and May. June has only recently been added. And around the first week of August, July will be added. And posters have taken the data back to 2011, not just 2015. People genuinely care about how the MK compares year over year. I don't know too many people who are walking down Main Street at 11:00 p.m. at the end of the day wishing that the park stayed open until 1:00 a.m. consoling themselves that AK is running dark safaris until midnight where you can hardly make out any of the animals. Adding hours to AK is cold gravy when half the park (Lion King show, Flights of Wonder, Nemo show, Maharajah Jungle Trek, Gorilla Trail) are closed. Are Everest and Kali really an even trade for the entirety of the MK?

That's what I said, and you said below. June over June.

I'm just saying that your only comparing MK ( a valid concern), but no credit for AK extra hours. 86 additional park hours is the net gain. Every week this June the MK was open until 1AM or 2Am at least once and midnight multiple nights. We (not all) would choose that night for MK, but also get the ability (this year) to tour AK at night when its much cooler and there are new offerings as well we enjoyed.

It's better for us, actually it was much better as we did 2 nights at AK, and even went one more night after Illuminations just so we could catch all 4 TOL shows which ran well passed 11PM.

I'm not saying you (or even a lot of guests) wouldn't prefer to go back to a few more hours spread over the month at MK and closing AK at 6 or 7, eliminating the TOL shows, Night Safari and JB (soon ROL), EE in the dark, and cooler touring at AK. That's a valid argument as well, but so is mine.

Well, June 30 has come and gone, so let's see what actually happened:

• Included hours = 435, which is 34 fewer than last year.
• EMHs (a.m.)= 4, which is the same as last year.
• EMH (p.m.) = 10, which is two more than last year, but this is accounted for by where the days of the week fell on the calendar.
• Hard Ticket hours = 10, (all in the morning), which is 10 more than last year.
• Included Operating Hours after 8:00 p.m. = 95. Last year it was 128. That is 33 fewer cooler evening hours to enjoy.
• Included Operating Hours before 10:00 a.m. = 40. Last year it was 41. No real change here.
• Number of days with an Included closing time of 11:00 = 25. 12:00 = 5. 1:00 = 0. Last year it was 0/22/8. The introduction of the 11:00 closing time is the real separator between last year and this year.
• Number of days with 14 Total Included Operating Hours=17; 15 Hours=11; 16 Hours=2 and 17 Hours=0. Last year it was 14 Hours=0; 15 Hours=15; 16 Hours=11 and 17 Hours=4. So last year, if you wanted a day at the MK that included 16 or more hours, you had 15 chances to do that, which is half the month. This year, you had 2 chances to do that, June 20 and June 22.

So the idea that Disney wouldn't possibly decrease its hours so drastically, and as we get closer in time to the actual month (or day), hours will be extended, isn't coming to fruition. We didn't see it at Easter. We didn't see it in May. And we didn't see it in June. What you see a month or so ahead is pretty much what you get.

Well, what actually happened is we gained 86 park hours.

Admittedly, this analysis has drifted far from the original intent of the thread, which was created at a time when the now defunct "After Hours" event was going on. The last 6 or so pages of the thread have been limited to a pure year-over-year comparison of hours. To the extent that it wasn't made clear, my conclusion is that neither "After Hours" (which is dead, and therefore cannot impact anything), nor "Early Morning Magic" are impacting Included Hours. The only thing that is impacting Included Hours is Disney's decision to cut them.

And add them, by way more.

Is it really that hard to simply add, "on the upside AK has added almost triple the hours that we lost at MK, as well as some new offerings and many more to come"?


.

 

[tj4disney]

As a fairly disinterested by-stander, I have no problem 'fessing up that AK has more hours. And I'm glad it's great for those who enjoy AK. But then I also have to add that when we were in WDW last summer we spent a grand total of 0 hours in AK. Yep, didn't even make the cut. So from my perspective, reduced hours at MK much bigger deal. Not that we were planning to go back to WDW any time soon anyway, but reduced MK hours not helping.

 

[jade1]

As a fairly disinterested by-stander, I have no problem 'fessing up that AK has more hours. And I'm glad it's great for those who enjoy AK. But then I also have to add that when we were in WDW last summer we spent a grand total of 0 hours in AK. Yep, didn't even make the cut. So from my perspective, reduced hours at MK much bigger deal. Not that we were planning to go back to WDW any time soon anyway, but reduced MK hours not helping.

Super fair enough, but others skipped it because it is considered the hottest park at WDW, nights made it much better for us-as well as new offerings. So for others adding AK hours is helping.

That said-once ROL opens and Avatar, I think it will be an amazing offering for nights esp in the summer heat.

I think we all have our preferred schedules.

How many of us prefer late nights anyway, or how many nights do we prefer MK, how many of us prefer AK, is AK nights freeing up attractions at MK and other parks, are bookings down so that had an impact?

How does WDW decide?

If dealing with the new total hours (adding 86 hours) over last year in June:

My ideal (selfishly) is MK is 3AM 2 nights a week, and 10PM the rest because we would only go the 2 nights, we would open MK one day as well to knock a bunch out.

But would also keep nights at AK at 11PM every night so that its available to us 2 nights, and draws guests the other nights from the other parks.

Partly because its so hot in the summer, partly to see things in the dark, partly to disperse crowds.

 

[JimmyV]

Is it really that hard to simply add, "on the upside AK has added almost triple the hours that we lost at MK, as well as some new offerings and many more to come"?

Yes, it is hard to simply say that. When the MK is open until 1:00, the whole park is open. When AK is open until 11:00, half the park is shut down. Simply adding up the number of hours that AK is open only tells a part of the story and can be very misleading. If you want to give Disney hour-for-hour credit for every lost hour at the MK and every gained hour at AK, then you can do that. I don't so I won't. I seriously doubt that even 50% of Disney guests who travel in the summer and who enjoyed longer, cooler hours at the MK are now mollified by the added hours at the MK. Can I prove it? No. But that's the beauty of a Board like this. People can chime in. I smell a poll coming on.

 

[dlavender]

Sorry. I never read the whole thing, but are you just talking MK hours?

Appears June 2016 WDW parks were open 86 more hours than June 2015 including EMH's (about 3 hours a day more).

That does not include any MK AM purchase events.

Unless I had bad info or bad math skills anyway.

Looking into this, you will find that most of those 86 hours are from one park, AK. And that's because last year it closed at 6-8 everyday last year.

So are you claiming that since hours were increased by one park, that justifies closing MK earlier? Which park has the most attendance? I'll save you some time....MK by a mile.

 

[cel_disney]

Looking into this, you will find that most of those 86 hours are from one park, AK. And that's because last year it closed at 6-8 everyday last year.

So are you claiming that since hours were increased by one park, that justifies closing MK earlier? Which park has the most attendance? I'll save you some time....MK by a mile.

But - Disney is still spending a fair amount of $$ to keep AK open longer to try to get you to try it and want to spend more time there.

Just curious - maybe some CMs know - is there any extra late night maintainance going on at MK (taking advantage of these early close nights?)...just curious how clever they actually are about all of this...