April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[Sandisw]

Has DVC ever had five resorts in active sales before? We are currently sitting at 4 (AUL, RIV, CFW, DLT). In various things I have watched / read from former guides, they don’t want to have too many options for buyers as they get confused and don’t impulse buy.

So my guess is there will be a fire sale on RIV just before Poly is ready. That is why they did VGF before the cabins came online.

So April probably won’t be a big change. Not sure of the Poly timeline but I expect six months prior to opening they will deeply discount RIV.

I think the fire sale last summer for VGF had more to do with them selling Poly tower this year than the cabins. But maybe it was about both?

RIV isnt competition for the MK area so it may not be seen the same?

It also seems they are more content with overall sales and not indivual resorts per se vs years ago when fewer resorts were typically for sale at the same time.

 

[The Jackal]

Using https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...y-for-fort-wilderness-cabins-in-february-2024 data.

Riviera has 6,739,966 total points and 4,211,055 are sold. That leaves 2,528,911 points.
Deeds worth 87,647 points showed up on the county web site.
If that pace remained steady, it would be 28.85 months to be sold out.

Disney must maintain ownership of 2% of the resort. Not sure if that is deducted from the total points. If not...
6,606,166 would be the total points they can sell. Leaving 2,395,111 points to be sold.
If same February pace, looking at 27.33 months.

NOTE: deeds can take up to many months to show up on the county web site. For example, someone may spread the payment across multiple months. In that case, the points are sold, but won't show up on the county web site for 3+ months, so they aren't reflected in known sales data.

Many variables will impact how sales are impacted going forward.

About 29 months at current rate. But with Poly 2 for sale shortly. I suspect RIV sales will slow. It will probably be 4-5 more years unless DVC has a few fire sales. Anything is possible. FW Cabins will be the WDW Aulani a resort that will never sell out.

 

[maui22]

And while I think there’s too much Riviera to fire sale, they did basically fire sale BLT and SSR at the end to ensure they had space for the launch of VGF (VGC sold out in the mean time as well).

I disagree on BLT fire sale for the launch of VGF.

After June 2011, DVCNews reported BLT dropped from 100K-200K sales in all but 1 month. After June 2011, BLT was in the 20k-33k range, with one month hitting 40K. DVC focus had turned to trying to sell AKV and SSR. Those were the resorts receiving the incentives. Notice BLT price hike in June 2011 (almost 2 years before VGF started selling), which was followed by four more price hikes before VGF ever started selling.

• Sept 2008 $112 for BLT base price. Not sure what the incentives were.
• 2009 spring webcast was Disney in panic mode. BLT with 160 points dropped the price to $96/pt. Price was as low as $91/pt for the highest incentive. (I think VGC was $87/pt for 160 points and they had better incentives for more points. Pretty sure it was at low as $85/pt with incentives.. Still kicking myself almost 15 years later for not buying VGC during that promotion).
• They tinkered with similar incentives most of the rest of 2009.
• What I recall is most of 2010, incentives brought the price somewhere in the low $100s range.
• Oct 2010, BLT base price raised to $120/pt.
• 2010 Black Friday weekend only (Doorway to Dreams DVC stores only), incentives brought price to I believe $97/pt. People literally flew and drove from several states to get to the Doorway to Dreams stores for this purchase. (I think the stores were in Boston, NY, and Chicago).
• There were never any more huge incentives for BLT.
• December 2010, BLT base price raised to $130/pt
• June 2011, BLT base price raised to $140/pt.
• Aug 2011, BLT base price raised to $150/pt.
• Jan 2012, BLT base price raised to $155/pt.
• Apr 2012 BLT price raised to $160/pt
• July 2012, BLT price raised to $165/pt

I believe VGF started selling May 2013. (I could be off a month or so).

 

[maui22]

About 29 months at current rate. But with Poly 2 for sale shortly. I suspect RIV sales will slow. It will probably be 4-5 more years unless DVC has a few fire sales. Anything is possible.

You could be right.

People said Riviera sales would tank when BPK sales started at VGF. Disney fluctuated the incentives between properties, much like they did with Riviera and VGF BPK addition. @Sandisw had many, many posts indicating sales between Riviera and VGF fluctuated based on what Disney gave the better incentives to.

Others have pointed out, guides can be directed to set the DVC pages to a specific resort and talk about that resort. They can be told to only discuss another property if the person asks about it.

Disney will decide what they want to sell. They have many tools in the toolbox.

 

[hhisc16]

I disagree on BLT fire sale for the launch of VGF.

After June 2011, DVCNews reported BLT dropped from 100K-200K sales in all but 1 month. After June 2011, BLT was in the 20k-33k range, with one month hitting 40K. DVC focus had turned to trying to sell AKV and SSR. Those were the resorts receiving the incentives. Notice BLT price hike in June 2011 (almost 2 years before VGF started selling), which was followed by four more price hikes before VGF ever started selling.

• Sept 2008 $112 for BLT base price. Not sure what the incentives were.
• 2009 spring webcast was Disney in panic mode. BLT with 160 points dropped the price to $96/pt. Price was as low as $91/pt for the highest incentive. (I think VGC was $87/pt for 160 points and they had better incentives for more points. Pretty sure it was at low as $85/pt with incentives.. Still kicking myself almost 15 years later for not buying VGC during that promotion).
• They tinkered with similar incentives most of the rest of 2009.
• What I recall is most of 2010, incentives brought the price somewhere in the low $100s range.
• Oct 2010, BLT base price raised to $120/pt.
• 2010 Black Friday weekend only (Doorway to Dreams DVC stores only), incentives brought price to I believe $97/pt. People literally flew and drove from several states to get to the Doorway to Dreams stores for this purchase. (I think the stores were in Boston, NY, and Chicago).
• There were never any more huge incentives for BLT.
• December 2010, BLT base price raised to $130/pt
• June 2011, BLT base price raised to $140/pt.
• Aug 2011, BLT base price raised to $150/pt.
• Jan 2012, BLT base price raised to $155/pt.
• Apr 2012 BLT price raised to $160/pt
• July 2012, BLT price raised to $165/pt

I believe VGF started selling May 2013. (I could be off a month or so).

85 dollars for VGC direct?!?

This Doorway to Dreams sounds really cool.
I would have visited one if I could.

 

[CastAStone]

I disagree on BLT fire sale for the launch of VGF.

After June 2011, DVCNews reported BLT dropped from 100K-200K sales in all but 1 month. After June 2011, BLT was in the 20k-33k range, with one month hitting 40K. DVC focus had turned to trying to sell AKV and SSR. Those were the resorts receiving the incentives. Notice BLT price hike in June 2011 (almost 2 years before VGF started selling), which was followed by four more price hikes before VGF ever started selling.

• Sept 2008 $112 for BLT base price. Not sure what the incentives were.
• 2009 spring webcast was Disney in panic mode. BLT with 160 points dropped the price to $96/pt. Price was as low as $91/pt for the highest incentive. (I think VGC was $87/pt for 160 points and they had better incentives for more points. Pretty sure it was at low as $85/pt with incentives.. Still kicking myself almost 15 years later for not buying VGC during that promotion).
• They tinkered with similar incentives most of the rest of 2009.
• What I recall is most of 2010, incentives brought the price somewhere in the low $100s range.
• Oct 2010, BLT base price raised to $120/pt.
• 2010 Black Friday weekend only (Doorway to Dreams DVC stores only), incentives brought price to I believe $97/pt. People literally flew and drove from several states to get to the Doorway to Dreams stores for this purchase. (I think the stores were in Boston, NY, and Chicago).
• There were never any more huge incentives for BLT.
• December 2010, BLT base price raised to $130/pt
• June 2011, BLT base price raised to $140/pt.
• Aug 2011, BLT base price raised to $150/pt.
• Jan 2012, BLT base price raised to $155/pt.
• Apr 2012 BLT price raised to $160/pt
• July 2012, BLT price raised to $165/pt

I believe VGF started selling May 2013. (I could be off a month or so).

That’s what I get for trying to work from memory!

 

[maui22]

85 dollars for VGC direct?!?

This Doorway to Dreams sounds really cool.
I would have visited one if I could.

They were at malls. For BLT, they had a room to look like BLT. You would step out on the so called balcony and they made it appear the fireworks were right there. Reality is the fireworks were further away then they made it appear.

Put those prices into context though. Great recession started end of 2007. 2008, people began seeing how bad things were. 2009, Disney was offering 43% off hotel rooms and still couldn't fill rooms. They closed at least one resort entirely. They were giving "magical upgrades" (paying CBR discounted rate and being upgraded to GF).
Disney didn't know if VGC would even be a good idea. It was the first DL DVC.

2009, they opened AKV Kidani, SSR THV, BLT, and VGC. That added more than 10 million points to sell at the worst economic crisis almost all Americans have ever experienced. (Few were around for the great depression).

Back then, Disney mortgages were financed through another company. Disney had to pay that company back because the loans were so bad. Disney started financing their own loans (great for long-term with those rates, but hurt short term cash flow).

So many Americans lost jobs, lost homes, and were in terrible economic situations.

I recall some people posting that they bought BWV resale under $30/pt. People were lowballing offers because people had to sell just to feed their families.

On top of that, I remember people literally bragging in 2008, people bragging they bought DVC SSR. I think the promotion gave a free stay for buying SSR DVC. They paid whatever the downpayment was, had their trip a month or two later, then refused to make any payments toward their loan. They were pointing out the price was cheaper than booking a hotel stay and telling others to do the same thing.

 

[hhisc16]

They were at malls. For BLT, they had a room to look like BLT. You would step out on the so called balcony and they made it appear the fireworks were right there. Reality is the fireworks were further away then they made it appear.

Put those prices into context though. Great recession started end of 2007. 2008, people began seeing how bad things were. 2009, Disney was offering 43% off hotel rooms and still couldn't fill rooms. They closed at least one resort entirely. They were giving "magical upgrades" (paying CBR discounted rate and being upgraded to GF).
Disney didn't know if VGC would even be a good idea. It was the first DL DVC.

2009, they opened AKV Kidani, SSR THV, BLT, and VGC. That added more than 10 million points to sell at the worst economic crisis almost all Americans have ever experienced. (Few were around for the great depression).

Back then, Disney mortgages were financed through another company. Disney had to pay that company back because the loans were so bad. Disney started financing their own loans (great for long-term with those rates, but hurt short term cash flow).

So many Americans lost jobs, lost homes, and were in terrible economic situations.

I recall some people posting that they bought BWV resale under $30/pt. People were lowballing offers because people had to sell just to feed their families.

On top of that, I remember people literally bragging in 2008, people bragging they bought DVC SSR. I think the promotion gave a free stay for buying SSR DVC. They paid whatever the downpayment was, had their trip a month or two later, then refused to make any payments toward their loan. They were pointing out the price was cheaper than booking a hotel stay and telling others to do the same thing.

Wow that is wild.
I was in high school during the Great Recession and went to WDW once off site during that time.

 

[vdangelo239]

Has DVC ever had five resorts in active sales before? We are currently sitting at 4 (AUL, RIV, CFW, DLT). In various things I have watched / read from former guides, they don’t want to have too many options for buyers as they get confused and don’t impulse buy.

So my guess is there will be a fire sale on RIV just before Poly is ready. That is why they did VGF before the cabins came online.

So April probably won’t be a big change. Not sure of the Poly timeline but I expect six months prior to opening they will deeply discount RIV.

This is the thought process I am behind as well at the moment....you have to figure...pending Poly is part of the same association with a reasonably comparable price to Riv...the incentive to buy at Riv over Poly would be so miniscule the resort would just sit idle in terms of sales until Poly sold out itself again....I feel like they'll want to move as many points in this next round as they can ahead of Poly....there is no fire sale that will help the Cabins at this point given the dues I don't think.

 

[CarolynFH]

@maui22 thanks for the historical data. I think one of the BLT incentives was a free cruise on DCL! In any case, I don’t think we can apply DVC prices, incentives, or sales during those times to now.

 

[AstroBlasters]

@maui22 thanks for the historical data. I think one of the BLT incentives was a free cruise on DCL! In any case, I don’t think we can apply DVC prices, incentives, or sales during those times to now.

The SP500 also closed at 676 on a day in March 2009… It’s at 5240 today….. things were at depression level pricing back then….

 

[maui22]

@maui22 thanks for the historical data. I think one of the BLT incentives was a free cruise on DCL! In any case, I don’t think we can apply DVC prices, incentives, or sales during those times to now.

Thanks for reminding me. You are right, I forgot about the DCL cruise.
Completely agree, much different times.

The SP500 also closed at 676 on a day in March 2009… It’s at 5240 today….. things were at depression level pricing back then….

Wow, I knew March 2009 was the bottom and it's been epic to watch portfolios since then.

A scene from Pirates of the Caribbean is running through my head..."Take what you can, give nothing back"

 

[Disney.dad]

Supposed to get new incentives emailed to me on Sunday. Spoke with a guide today and no more information I can give.

 

[Sandisw]

Supposed to get new incentives emailed to me on Sunday. Spoke with a guide today and no more information I can give.

Surprised they will have the incentives early. They don’t normally allow guides to share until the day they begin.

Keep us posted!

 

[Disney.dad]

Surprised they will have the incentives early. They don’t normally allow guides to share until the day they begin.

Keep us posted!

He wouldn’t share the goods but I think the wife and I got a wink, lol. We mentioned why would we buy direct on a tour when incentives were so much better at Grand Floridian last summer.

 

[SpicyMcHaggis]

He wouldn’t share the goods but I think the wife and I got a wink, lol. We mentioned why would we buy direct on a tour when incentives were so much better at Grand Floridian last summer.

Definitely keeping my fingers crossed for some fantastically-priced direct points. We wouldn't benefit much from many of the direct incentives since we probably wouldn't make good use of annual passes, but I've got some FOMO about future resorts and making sure we have something on a longer time scale to pass down to our family.

 

[supercarrie]

He wouldn’t share the goods but I think the wife and I got a wink, lol. We mentioned why would we buy direct on a tour when incentives were so much better at Grand Floridian last summer.

Interesting! This would be in line with my guide, who hinted a few weeks back that I could wait until April or later to buy. We are in the market for our 150 direct points. We'll see...!

Between that and the rumored $200 gift card for people touring DVC, my guess is they are worried about the rest of the year after seeing March's sales.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Interesting! This would be in line with my guide, who hinted a few weeks back that I could wait until April or later to buy. We are in the market for our 150 direct points. We'll see...!

Between that and the rumored $200 gift card for people touring DVC, my guess is they are worried about the rest of the year after seeing March's sales.

Or possibly @BrianLo’s theory that they aren’t expecting Poly to come on sale in Q2 and want to not have Y/Y numbers drop off a cliff.

 

[Jwaire]

I think the fire sale last summer for VGF had more to do with them selling Poly tower this year than the cabins. But maybe it was about both?

It was a flip too. Much cheaper investment. I'm not sure we can use VGF2 to compare to anything.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It was a flip too. Much cheaper investment. I'm not sure we can use VGF2 to compare to anything.

That’s what I keep saying about the Poly Tower point chart too. Just because the BPK flip matched VGF, I would not assume the point chart will be the same (or even close)…though if they are making it the same association I think they will have a hard time charging much more for the standard view studios.